WTPZ41 KNHC 161433
TCDEP1
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021
Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this
morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in
infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops
surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past
several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the
inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt
and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of
hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to
110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based
on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the
slightly degraded aforementioned convective features.
Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer
ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia
moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the
global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat,
which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of
and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the
middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models
TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.
Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to
low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly
becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the
powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat
content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that
cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours.
Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from
24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow
weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the
remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt)
vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 13.1N 140.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
