ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

The GEFS and GEPS means take this north of the Greater Antilles, giving it more time over water.

[gatorcane]

No mention of shear by NHC by days 4 and 5? The GFS and CMC so the shear and I assume the Euro does too if I could access,

Bump

[AlphaToOmega]

When this becomes a closed low, it will be a bona fide tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS now dissipates it in high shear. It was the only model indicating more than a depression. This small system has a hostile environment in its path that doesn't get more favorable farther west.

[tolakram]

I can't see the Euro shear, but here's the simulated WV loop. I only go out to 5 days, any longer is just silly IMO.

WV


Vis

[AutoPenalti]

Does Linda intensifying in the EPAC affect 7's prospects?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS now dissipates it in high shear. It was the only model indicating more than a depression. This small system has a hostile environment in its path that doesn't get more favorable farther west.

Agreed very hostile environment. The GFS is now back to something more realistic. Last couple of runs before that were not believable and completely laughable.

[NotSparta]

12Z GFS now dissipates it in high shear. It was the only model indicating more than a depression. This small system has a hostile environment in its path that doesn't get more favorable farther west.

Agreed very hostile environment. The GFS is now back to something more realistic. Last couple of runs before that were not believable and completely laughable.

I take it you haven't looked at conditions between here and the islands?

[ElectricStorm]

I think the odds of this getting tangled up in the GA's are very high but if it manages to get through there without going over the tallest mountains of Hispaniola than I think it might have at least a small chance at making a run at hurricane status. I think it's still a little too early in the season for anything super strong (last major to form on or before 8/15 was Bill 2009). One to watch for sure as things can always change of course. That being said if it overperforms in the short term maybe it'll go further north and miss the GA's

[AC5230]

Does Linda intensifying in the EPAC affect 7's prospects?

Probably not.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Seven, located several hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Taking off the "model watcher" hat and putting the "armchair forecaster" hat on for a minute.

It's obvious this is a developing tropical cyclone & will probably be Tropical Storm Grace sometime in the next 12-18 hours. Clear spiral banding and is closing off a circulation on satellite. The latest GFS & Euro are almost certainly trending too weak in the next 48 hours. That will have implications downrange.

Conditions ahead of it are hostile, but not hostile enough for zero development.

[Nuno]

Taking off the "model watcher" hat and putting the "armchair forecaster" hat on for a minute.

It's obvious this is a developing tropical cyclone & will probably be Tropical Storm Grace sometime in the next 12-18 hours. Clear spiral banding and is closing off a circulation on satellite. The latest GFS & Euro are almost certainly trending too weak in the next 48 hours. That will have implications downrange.

Conditions ahead of it are hostile, but not hostile enough for zero development.

https://i.imgur.com/uteItyk.jpg

This is clearly a tropical cyclone, why bother with the "potential" designation?

[aspen]

Taking off the "model watcher" hat and putting the "armchair forecaster" hat on for a minute.

It's obvious this is a developing tropical cyclone & will probably be Tropical Storm Grace sometime in the next 12-18 hours. Clear spiral banding and is closing off a circulation on satellite. The latest GFS & Euro are almost certainly trending too weak in the next 48 hours. That will have implications downrange.

Conditions ahead of it are hostile, but not hostile enough for zero development.

https://i.imgur.com/uteItyk.jpg

This is clearly a tropical cyclone, why bother with the "potential" designation?

I guess the NHC is waiting for a good ASCAT pass to confirm if it’s closed or not. Remember how it looked closed yesterday but wasn’t.

[jlauderdal]

Taking off the "model watcher" hat and putting the "armchair forecaster" hat on for a minute.

It's obvious this is a developing tropical cyclone & will probably be Tropical Storm Grace sometime in the next 12-18 hours. Clear spiral banding and is closing off a circulation on satellite. The latest GFS & Euro are almost certainly trending too weak in the next 48 hours. That will have implications downrange.

Conditions ahead of it are hostile, but not hostile enough for zero development.

https://i.imgur.com/uteItyk.jpg

This is clearly a tropical cyclone, why bother with the "potential" designation?

I don't see a clear center at the surface? Where are you seeing it?

[tolakram]

I'm also not convinced this has a closed circulation.

[jlauderdal]

I'm also not convinced this has a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/ME9qL7R.gif

I would be surprised if they had recon in there that they were able to close it off and at this point, it really doesn't matter, it has enough designation that we get a track and disco out of the nhc which is all we really want anyway.

[aspen]

I'm also not convinced this has a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/ME9qL7R.gif

It’s getting very close though, probably no later than 5am will be when the NHC pulls the trigger.

[msbee]

Looks like I am going to get some bad weather Saturday night.