https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1440363040939995145
ATL: SAM - Models
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/i/status/1440358477801480202
That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/i/status/1440358477801480202
That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z
Yeah I noticed that after posting, whoops.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
IF** the 12z GFS is correct in the long range, high pressure will be dominating over the US for many days!
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Anyone has the 12z UKMET?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
chris_fit wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/i/status/1440358477801480202
That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z
Still a bit fuzzy
seems that a few of those ens are similar to Gefs recent run, but I do notice slight hesitation on those member so far IMO
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
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This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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M a r k
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Born2run0830
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
.
Last edited by Born2run0830 on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Remove please.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Born2run0830 wrote:I have what’s probably a dumb question- does the location of warmer waters play a role in track? Like are storms more likely to seek them out and therefore take a route that’s more likely to go through them, or does that not play a role?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
As far as I know, tropical cyclones do not have any sort of "heat seeking" capability. They can seem at times to try to avoid land to keep themselves alive, but I as I understand it that has to do with frictional effects.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
delaying development.
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M a r k
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Last edited by grapealcoholic on Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Kohlecane wrote:chris_fit wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/i/status/1440358477801480202
That's the 00Z ECMF Ens Run - not 12Z
Still a bit fuzzy
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/FUZZY-ENS.jpg
That's yesterdays solution.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Does that sound like the Euro could trend toward the GFS?tolakram wrote:https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1440372231658344448?s=20
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HWRF shows an anemic wave for the next day but still has 98L become TS Sam by late Thursday. The HMON is slower with development and has a TS by midday Friday.
CMC is a very close scare for the Leeward Islands.
CMC is a very close scare for the Leeward Islands.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Unless it doesn't develop at all, later development would be bad for possible Caribbean/CONUS impacts since it would less time to recurve right?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
I don't think this develops anytime soon. Models once again are failing to see adverse conditions until just a few runs before development, then start pushing that development back.
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