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Ntxw wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Wave 1 attack from the Pacific on the stratosphere is Aleutian low. Couple that with wave 2 from the Atlantic/Scandinavia and you can split the PV. Also processes is self retrogression of the Aleutian low pattern. It pumps high pressure over the top in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic. Historically, what we know as 'favorable' weak-mod El Ninos are fueled by a good Aleutian low pattern. The flat Aleutian high is the opposite, known for heat and warmth here.
We don't want to be at the Gulf of Alaska
I don't think it will. It's more of a function of MJO and EAJ/Pacific jet. What we saw on the ENS was simply the cutoff point from the models of a transition period, simply because the maps ran out of time. As we extend it may seem more like extension then retraction.
Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, we want to see a poleward Aleutian ridge instead of flat and not too close to us. We have had alot of those in the past. We want a pattern that favors winter weather here.
