Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Man this is a crazy scary run… let’s hope and pray this doesn’t come to pass. 216 hours and sub 930mb… looks to maybe be starting a turn to the NNE. Someone is getting wrecked on this run, big time.


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[Stratton23]

Hour 234 and starting to turn W-WNW due to getting caught underneath a ridge moving to the east

[Tailgater33]

Thank god this is over a week away. This type a storm will have a huge storm surge

[Stormcenter]

The windshield wiper runs continue with the models.
There is no consistency whatsoever with any of them from .

[AtlanticWind]

Lucky we are 10 days out , so in model la la land

[ThunderForce]

Has there ever been a hurricane that large in the Gulf before, or the Atlantic for that matter? Literally looks like a typhoon on the GFS...

[Stratton23]

That being said, the environment looks very favorable for development in the gulf/ western caribbean, so the fact that we are seeing mostly stronger solutions from the globals , ICON etc. Its definitely alarming for sure

[Clearcloudz]

This storm if pans out the way it is in the models would prompt massive evacuations depending on landfall location. Storm surge could be massive.

[SouthFLTropics]

This run looks very much like Katrina, size, shape, and strength wise. Large eye.


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[Fancy1002]

Good news is it’s finally weakening. bad news, It’s heading for New Orleans.

[MetroMike]

Good news is it’s finally weakening. bad news, It’s heading for New Orleans.

Would not put too much clout in the pressure forecasts.

[SouthFLTropics]

Button hook right… right turn Clyde… said nope on Nola.


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[eastcoastFL]

This storm if pans out the way it is in the models would prompt massive evacuations depending on landfall location. Storm surge could be massive.

https://i.imgur.com/Vmu99sq.png

Wow, I hope this is just model fantasy. That thing is enormous and would be a major threat to the entire gulf.

[Fancy1002]

Nevermind, to the panhandle.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC brings a 977mb system into the western panhandle on Thursday.

[SouthFLTropics]

Took the long way around the GOM to end up at Panama City and Appilachicola. That size storm would stack a ton of water into the Big Bend.


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[eastcoastFL]

Took the long way around the GOM to end up at Panama City and Appilachicola. That size storm would stack a ton of water into the Big Bend.


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I imagine we will see a lot of back and forth with the models over the coming days and the set up begins to pan out.

[ThunderForce]

This GFS run is basically a Michael repeat, landfalling in literally the same area, but worse in terms of storm surge impacts and with a larger hurricane-force/tropical storm-force wind field that seems like it would affect pretty much most of the central and eastern Gulf.

[Beef Stew]

0z takes a last-minute eastern jog directly into FL panhandle landfall near Panama City, and with a massive hurricane that could potentially generate Ike or Katrina-level surge. This run would also see impacts extended to the GA/SC coast on the way out.

The good news? We're still a ways out, and knowing how models have performed out this year, I'm not even close to buying into a certain track or intensity yet. What we do know is that the consensus is growing for a storm to form in the Caribbean in the 5-6 day window, with the potential for a CONUS impact somewhere along the gulf coast in the 8-10+ day range- albeit with nothing set in stone. We'll all certainly be paying close attention to this ominous signal during the coming days.

Interesting side note- this run says "better late than never", as it spins up an ACE-generating major in the MDR in the latter half of the run.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m also noticing that on this GFS run that it develops in the western Carib and it avoids all land interaction as it splits the gap between the Yucatán and western Cuba. It’s already a significant storm before it reaches the gulf.