NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

I’m curious what the NHC does with Humberto at the next advisory. I think satellite makes a solid case for 135 kts even by their criteria, but I’m guessing they may go 130 with a note about how that intensity “may be conservative”.

[Kazmit]

Looks like Irma.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

That’s a cat five. Expect the formal designation shortly. There was a time that they wouldn’t call a 5 without recon but they’ve been more willing in recent years.

[Teban54]

The meso sector finally comes in.

[StormWeather]

That’s a cat five. Expect the formal designation shortly.

If you had told me two weeks ago that we would have two Cat 5s in a year as quiet as it’s been up to now, I wouldn’t have believed it.

[Zonacane]

That’s a cat five. Expect the formal designation shortly.

If you had told me two weeks ago that we would have two Cat 5s in a year as quiet as it’s been up to now, I wouldn’t have believed it.

Severe weather tends to do that.

[Beef Stew]

That’s a cat five. Expect the formal designation shortly.

If you had told me two weeks ago that we would have two Cat 5s in a year as quiet as it’s been up to now, I wouldn’t have believed it.

I personally suspect that Gabrielle probably peaked at around 130 kts as well- while not a cat 5, still an incredibly strong hurricane. So the weakest (assuming Humberto gets bumped up to >= 130 kts) of the three hurricanes we’ve had this year would’ve been a season-defining (intensity-wise) storm in numerous past seasons…

[Travorum]

125kts lol

Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[Zonacane]

125kts lol

Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

I understand they have their hands full with Imelda, but that is way too low

[Hurricane2022]

125kts lol

Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

We're back to late-september 2021...

[Kazmit]

125kts lol

Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Classic case of no recon.

[Hurricane2022]

125kts lol

Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...DANGEROUS SURF FROM MAJOR HURRICANE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CARIBBEAN AND BERMUDA SHORES LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Classic case of no recon.

Recent
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from near 120 kt
to just below 130 kt, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[zzzh]

Since the last advisory, Humberto's eye has once again become better
defined and recent WSF-M microwave imagery at 1001 UTC did not
indicate the presence of concentric eyewalls. Together, these data
suggest Humberto completed its eyewall replacement cycle. Recent
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from near 120 kt
to just below 130 kt, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt.

lol

[Teban54]

So allegedly, these two frames are at the same intensity:

(I don't have imagery from earlier than this handy, so feel free to add)

[Zonacane]

Humberto doesn't qualify as T7.0?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is Humberto being underestimated because of its small size, or is it that the ring of deepest convection isn’t thick enough yet for a higher estimate?

[zhukm29]

[Travorum]

Is Humberto being underestimated because of its small size, or is it that the ring of deepest convection isn’t thick enough yet for a higher estimate?

The W ring definitely hasn't been consistently thick enough for a T7.0, although there might have been a few frames where it was. The B ring however has been consistently thick enough for a T6.5 for several hours. the 12z subjective dvorak fixes were T6.0 from SAB and T6.5 from TAFB (right when the B ring was at its thinnest), ADT is still recovering from a poorer appearance overnight, and other satellite estimates are between 120kts and 130kts. So it seems the NHC doesn't want to show strengthening faster than what convention would suggest, despite the subjectively improved satellite appearance.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

I think 135kts would be good for this advisory, at least 130. 125 seems too low IMO. It's certainly improved from last night when it was also at 125