Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12Z GEFS has bifurcation with one set moving NE over E Car. like GFS while others get into W Car.

I think those are two different systems.

Yes, the SW one is a CAG system.

[Spacecoast]

12z GDM-FNV3 ensemble

[hipshot]

12z GDM-FNV3 ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/XxrSK8m6/fv1.jpg

Would you like to describe what the heck we are looking at? It looks like some scribbling my 3 year old granddaughter might do.

[IsabelaWeather]

12z GDM-FNV3 ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/XxrSK8m6/fv1.jpg

Weird, the 6z was pretty tightly packed..

[Spacecoast]

12z GDM-FNV3 ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/XxrSK8m6/fv1.jpg

Would you like to describe what the heck we are looking at? It looks like some scribbling my 3 year old granddaughter might do.

I'll try....
This is Google DeepMind (50 member ensemble) forecast showing different possible tracks/ intensities.
Approx 20 of those members are showing development in the Caribbean, (down from 39 showing development on earlier runs).

6 of those get buried into Cent America
7 (strong) members cross Cuba, including 1 that continues N into FL
6 members cross Haiti / DR
1 crosses PR.

The thick line shows the median, or consensus track / intensity of all 20 members

[hipshot]

12z GDM-FNV3 ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/XxrSK8m6/fv1.jpg

Would you like to describe what the heck we are looking at? It looks like some scribbling my 3 year old granddaughter might do.

I'll try....
This is Google DeepMind (50 member ensemble) forecast showing different possible tracks/ intensities.
Approx 20 of those members are showing development in the Caribbean, (down from 39 showing development on earlier runs).

6 of those get buried into Cent America
7 (strong) members cross Cuba, including 1 that continues N into FL
6 members cross Haiti / DR
1 crosses PR.

The thick line shows the median, or consensus track / intensity of all 20 members

Is it showing that the thick line moves off to the north only to slip back south and then turn around and go back north?

[caneseddy]

12z GFS once again heads NE over western Puerto Rico very slowly..that would be a disaster for the island..

[Spacecoast]

Would you like to describe what the heck we are looking at? It looks like some scribbling my 3 year old granddaughter might do.

I'll try....
This is Google DeepMind (50 member ensemble) forecast showing different possible tracks/ intensities.
Approx 20 of those members are showing development in the Caribbean, (down from 39 showing development on earlier runs).

6 of those get buried into Cent America
7 (strong) members cross Cuba, including 1 that continues N into FL
6 members cross Haiti / DR
1 crosses PR.

The thick line shows the median, or consensus track / intensity of all 20 members

Is it showing that the thick line moves off to the north only to slip back south and then turn around and go back north?

Dis-regard that later movement in the ensemble mean track. It is a result of extreme NE members dissipating, or dropping out of the pack later in the forecast.

[Cachondo23]

The GFS doesn’t like PR at all…

[cycloneye]

As long as the GFS is alone and Euro does not join in on that, I feel very good.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic around
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[IsabelaWeather]

12z GFS once again heads NE over western Puerto Rico very slowly..that would be a disaster for the island..

That would be an eye directly over my house at hour 198

[caneseddy]

00z ICON for first time has TCG commencing south of Hispaniola and then the run finishes with strengthening storm south of Jamaica in the general direction of Honduras/Nicaragua

[IsabelaWeather]

0z GFS moved like 500 miles west to eastern Haiti

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic, about
900 miles east of the Windward Islands, continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days while it moves
generally westward at around 20 mph. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to
the Windward Islands late this weekend, then move across the
Caribbean Sea through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Oct 18 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 04N
to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Earlier observed scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection has diminished. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 12N between the
wave 48W from 07N to 13N. A 2312Z ASCAT pass showed fresh to
strong northeast to southeast winds across the wave axis from 11N
to 14.5N. Gradual development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves generally westward. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend, then move
across the Caribbean Sea much of next week. This wave has a low
chance of tropical development within the next 7 days.

[Cachondo23]

Just like that models backing off

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025


East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves generally westward at around 20 mph.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday
night, then move across the Caribbean Sea through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Fancy1002]

We finally have invest 98L, now we can start with the hurricane models that will hopefully give us a bit more insight. And the hurricane Hunter missions should hopefully begin soon.