NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

It's a long shot and too early to tell, but if Melissa deepens below 900 mb, 2024-25 will be the first time on record that two consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons featured sub-900 mb storms.

The only years on record to have at least one such storms are: 1935, 1980, 1988, 2005 (2x), 2024. Honorable mention to 1969 with Camille exactly at 900 mb.

Coincidentally, if this happens, both of these sub-900 storms would have M names.

Even if Melissa "only" reaches Cat 5, it would still mean five Cat 5s within 2 years (with Beryl, Milton, Erin and Humberto confirmed). The only other time this happened was 2004-05.

A season with a Category 5 to begin with is impressive. A season with multiple Category 5s is even more impressive. A season with a sub-900 mbar Category 5 is just….exceptional.

2024-2025 is looking like it will be among the most epic recorded stretches of Atlantic activity

[GCANE]

355K PV goes in the clear all the way to mid Florida next week when Euro has Melissa SW of Jamaica.
Ominous.

[Teban54]

Well, the 11am NHC discussion now has Melissa as a MH at the end of the forecast period. Looks like they are going with the S of Jamaica solution

And the NHC's 105 kt forecast for 120h may still be conservative:

the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during
this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional
models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The
day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and
further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles.

[Weathertracker96]

355K PV goes in the clear all the way to mid Florida next week when Euro has Melissa SW of Jamaica.
Ominous.

So this could get further west and then turn NE?

[mitchell]

I really hope the 06z GFS is wrong and this doesn't stall over Haiti and the DR for 72 hours! Widespread 20 inch totals over 72 hours will cause a lot of flooding and devastation in the mountainous regions, i would imagine.

[GCANE]

355K PV goes in the clear all the way to mid Florida next week when Euro has Melissa SW of Jamaica.
Ominous.

So this could get further west and then turn NE?

Further west for sure.
Wait and see when the turn occurs.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1981017712760680484

[kevin]

I guess this one's for everyone who called the 2025 season boring. This is one of the most difficult (and potentially high-impact) hurricane forecasts in a long time and I say that knowing we also had Humberto/Imelda last month..

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

I’m still skeptical of assuming that Melissa should reach sub-900 mb intensity. There is a reason it’s rare. I think a Cat 5 is on the table for sure but a sub-900 storm is still a low probability in my opinion. I know the max potential intensity is ludicrous considering the OHC south of Jamaica and into the NW Caribbean. Melissa very well may have time to become very intense; however, conditions will have to be perfect to get sub-900.

[blp]

Seems to me like we may get a naked circ popping out soon based on the latest visible.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis_swir

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I really hope the 06z GFS is wrong and this doesn't stall over Haiti and the DR for 72 hours! Widespread 20 inch totals over 72 hours will cause a lot of flooding and devastation in the mountainous regions, i would imagine.

https://www.mostoke.com/wp-content/uploads/hm_bbpui/147133/c9pnrczr7lggvcidffzoz42ltaz7zxuk.jpg

12z is worse; up to 62 inches of rain:

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m still skeptical of assuming that Melissa should reach sub-900 mb intensity. There is a reason it’s rare. I think a Cat 5 is on the table for sure but a sub-900 storm is still a low probability in my opinion. I know the max potential intensity is ludicrous considering the OHC south of Jamaica and into the NW Caribbean. Melissa very well may have time to become very intense; however, conditions will have to be perfect to get sub-900.

I agree with this take, and you only have to go back to 2020 to see why this isn’t a slam dunk. Both Delta and Eta are perfect examples of nearly perfect environments for record breaking storms with a fly in the ointment. The maximum potential is through the roof but there are many contingencies as to whether that potential is realized.

[LarryWx]

I guess this one's for everyone who called the 2025 season boring. This is one of the most difficult (and potentially high-impact) hurricane forecasts in a long time and I say that knowing we also had Humberto/Imelda last month..

Some people who crave destruction consider it “boring” if there are no Conus H landfalls, which looks to continue if Melissa also doesn’t hit there (likely as of now) regardless of how strong it gets. Every storm could get to cat 5 and those folks would still be bored. It’s ingrained in them and it’s hard for that to change. I’ve seen it on other wx boards, too.

[zzzh]

Looks like the LLC is going to be ahead of convection again

[cycloneye]

Looks like the LLC is going to be ahead of convection again

That means more west and that means we are going to see a monster cane down the road with catastrofic consequences for some countries. Hoping I am wrong about that.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I guess this one's for everyone who called the 2025 season boring. This is one of the most difficult (and potentially high-impact) hurricane forecasts in a long time and I say that knowing we also had Humberto/Imelda last month..

2025 had a Category 5 storm undergoing Fujiwhara effect in the Atlantic. I refuse to believe that any tropical weather enthusiast could call this season boring.

[LarryWx]

I guess this one's for everyone who called the 2025 season boring. This is one of the most difficult (and potentially high-impact) hurricane forecasts in a long time and I say that knowing we also had Humberto/Imelda last month..

2025 had a Category 5 storm undergoing Fujiwhara effect in the Atlantic. I refuse to believe that any tropical weather enthusiast could call this season boring.

I’ve read posts from several people elsewhere who have said it has been boring due to no U.S. H landfalls. They don’t care about cat 5s or Fujiwara if the storms don’t threaten the US. Those types need to see landfalls for them not to be bored. At least they’re honest.

[chaser1]

Seems to me like we may get a naked circ popping out soon based on the latest visible.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis_swir

Maybe? You thinking around 14.8N & 74.2W? Geez, I hope not. That would imply a couple things. Primarily, that a WNW to NW motion at 5 knots or more continues. Secondly, that Melissa's vertical integrity is NOT yet improving. Both of which lend to an increasingly westward longitude. All of the above continue to degrade the GFS model solution suggesting Melissa will sharply turn NNE and exit the building along with Elvis lol. "That" near term window fully closes in about 36-42 hours if Melissa remains in the Caribbean. Thereafter, Melissa would have to wait and try and catch the next short-wave northward bound train.

[Zonacane]

Melissa is going to be weak and disorganized for a couple days, Melissa is still going to be a record breaking storm.