Texas Spring 2026

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 31 this morning with a pretty decent frost.

[Stratton23]

Now this is beautiful true texas spring like weather! If only we could keep these temperatures around all day every year lol!

[Kirby68]

It takes a few months for the atmospheric teleconnections to occur so I doubt we will see much relief between now and Autumn. The entire planet is accelerating in heating at an alarming rate but we humans apparently do not care so it's only going to get hotter. We also know that the heating planet is affecting El Niño/La Niña cycles so historical analogs should just be thrown out the window for the most part. We simply do not know how this El Niño will play out and there is no garantee we will see increased rainfall unfortunately.

Good points. Our weather, on the southern plains, seems to now be characterized by long periods of above-average temps and dry spells, interrupted by deluges.

So basically, the way it’s always been in the southern plains throughout recorded human history. We just seem to be in an extended period of suckitude here in SCTX- the NTX/OK guys don’t have much to complain about though.

Exactly. Still amazes me people act like it’s never been hot are drought like conditions before. 1950’s were brutal for Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW...LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026



The warming trend will continue on Saturday ahead of the strong
cold front on Sunday. Zonal flow will dominate aloft with breezy
south-southwest winds in the lower levels. This will bring
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal with highs mainly in the
80s. A few locations across our western zones could reach 90
degrees.

For Sunday, model guidance continue to show a fairly strong cold
front arriving some time during the afternoon or early evening.
Gusty north winds will spread across the region with sustained
winds around 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph. The combination
of the low humidity (RH between 20-35%) and gusty winds may
increase the fire weather threat across the region. One limiting
factor will be the recent rainfall, but at least we could see
some elevated fire concerns materialize Sunday afternoon.

While we won`t see much precipitation with the front, a few light
showers may able to sneak into a few locations east of I-35
Sunday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, we`re expecting the cold
airmass to track south into our area Sunday night and Monday.
We`re looking at lows near or below freezing for much of North
Texas by Monday morning. The cooler weather will stay with us all
day Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s.

After a chilly start of the week, above normal temperatures
will return during the mid to late week period. A mid-level ridge
is expected to dominate the pattern over the southern Plains. This
will bring the more seasonal/warmer weather with the return of
highs in the 70s and 80s by next Wednesday.

[wxman22]

Norman has a high of 75 here on Sunday with a low of 27 lol. That’s a pretty strong front for this time of year.

[txtwister78]

Good points. Our weather, on the southern plains, seems to now be characterized by long periods of above-average temps and dry spells, interrupted by deluges.

So basically, the way it’s always been in the southern plains throughout recorded human history. We just seem to be in an extended period of suckitude here in SCTX- the NTX/OK guys don’t have much to complain about though.

Exactly. Still amazes me people act like it’s never been hot are drought like conditions before. 1950’s were brutal for Texas.

Folks as mentioned on here a few weeks back, we were stuck in a La Nina pattern in four of the last five years so it should really come as no great surprise that typically you're going to see longer term drought conditions unfortunately when faced with that type of setup across parts of Texas.

I do think we will see some improvement of that as we transition to an El Nino state but it's not going to happen right away. Unfortunately when we come out of these droughts we tend to do so with big flood related events.

For Texas naturally we look to the Spring months for above normal precipitation but some tend to forget late September through mid October which is another time period to watch during El Nino for above normal precipitation.

[Stratton23]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, its a coin flip with el nino now down here

[wxman22]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, im not holding my breath that this upcoming el nino will be any different

Well it can't get any worst than this winter, it was literally the warmest winter on record for many parts of the country. I'll take my chances with El Nino.

[wxman22]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, its a coin flip with el nino now down here

And just because the last El Nino was bad, doesn't cancel out all of the good El Nino years we have had. A few bad El Nino years does not set a new precedent. That's not how climatology works.The climate works on a much larger timescale than we as humans can't even imagine due to our short lifespans in the grand scheme of things.People tend to have a STRONG recency bias when it comes to weather.

[Stratton23]

Hopefully you are right, i want more than anything, a wet and cooler summer, but i have a hard time believing that considering the PDO is still rather unfavorable, and the discussion across some mets on social media is more closer to 2023, we will see

[txtwister78]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, its a coin flip with el nino now down here

Fall 2023- mid 2024 was an El Nino year and in San Antonio for example we saw periods of above normal precip including during the winter as a result compared to the four other years under La Nina where we were much below our rainfall average so I completely disagree with it being a "coin flip" in the sense that there really isn't anything to back that characterization up Stratton yet especially after what I just cited.

Summer and Winter months tend to be drier anyway in Texas so those aren't the metrics I would use even though they clearly show that year it wasn't drier at all during our winter and by the time summer of 24 hit we were pretty much back to enso neutral territory but there are also other factors at play in the summer that drive precip that are harder to predict (tropics which ate suppressed typically during El Nino etc)

But again when you're talking about "one year" out of the last five, despite the fact that within that yr we did see some noticeable gains in rainfall total, I don't know how that could that be viewed as a trend or coin flip even if we hadn't seen spikes in precip? It's just one year?

[Ntxw]

+PMM and warmer west coast waters to me is very different than 2023. I don't buy into 'cooler' than normal (because wrong more than not) but wetter than normal has a better chance as El Nino intensifies. This is looking more like a classic costero event, more like the nino's of old...sort of with early indicators.

[Stratton23]

Hopefully, im not sure i can take another heat ridge sitting over texas for weeks in summer again, a daily chance for seabreeze storms surely cant be too much to ask for lol

[Brent]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, im not holding my breath that this upcoming el nino will be any different

Well it can't get any worst than this winter, it was literally the warmest winter on record for many parts of the country. I'll take my chances with El Nino.

Exactly and just seeing the forecast next week with 90s showing up makes me more certain I want to see El Nino at this point. The bar is non-existent at this point on how bad it can get

I told somebody the other day if you erase the week in January this has almost been like a winter when I was growing up in Alabama 4 hours from the coast where winter never exists usually. It's been horrible

The summers always suck but tbh we still haven't beaten the big bad ones here from long ago... Not even close so far *knocks on wood*

I can't even imagine if we had August 1936 again when we were above 110 degrees for a week straight

[Quixotic]

I’m off the frost/freeze bandwagon because I just laid sod.

[Brent]

Well apparently if March is warmest ever it will be the first time in OKC history two winter months back to back

But Sunday night might have some flakes nearby if we get lucky. We haven't gotten lucky this winter so I won't be holding my breath haha

I'm still pretty shocked we never got another threat after January

[opticsguy]

2023 was an el nino year and both summer and the winter ended up being extremely dry and well above normal temperature wise, im not holding my breath that this upcoming el nino will be any different

Well it can't get any worst than this winter, it was literally the warmest winter on record for many parts of the country. I'll take my chances with El Nino.

Didn't 2023 have the volcano in the pacific that put a cubic mile of water into the upper atmosphere?

[Ntxw]

After this period of relative cold late weekend for a couple of days, a string of hot days is on the horizon. 80s and 90s for many and 90-95+ west of I-35. It will for sure crush the below normal anomalies and keep the pace for a top finish. Going to enjoy and milk this cold as much as possible.

[Stratton23]

Lets just skip to next fall please, no summer, just straight to fall lol

[wxman22]

We’re under a High Wind Watch for Sunday… Also looks like we’re going to have a hard freeze now.