WPAC: SINLAKU - Typhoon

[doomhaMwx]

Some cool stuff...




 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/2043685000978002349

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2043692715674578950

[cycloneye]

Tianan and Saipan will get the worse conditions in a few hours.

https://www.earthcam.com/world/northern ... cam=saipan

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NWSGuam/status/2043714980806098979

[sasha_B]

CDO seems to be shrinking and warming more rapidly now than it was overnight, though it'll be a while yet before this gets below T7.0 - there's still a rather impressive outer band & a very warm eye. My guess is it'll be down to 145 kt / 908 hPa by 0z, but they might decide to hold intensity for the 18z best track update.

MSLP is down to 992.9 hPa at PGSN and 993.7 hPa at PGUM, as of 16z. Will be interesting to see what kind of data they record when Sinlaku makes its closest approach.

[ljmac75]

Kinda looked like it was doing an ERC on radar earlier but now I'm not so sure. Maybe it's been trained by Melissa in the art of not undergoing full ERCs.

[cycloneye]

For sure Sinkalu will be subject to many studies and analysis by the experts, especially in terms of the lack of ERCs.

[MGC]

Saipan and Tinian need to batten down the hatches. Guam should miss the worst of it with Rota getting a glancing blow. Impressive typhoon.......MGC

[Hurricane2022]

A ERC is ongoing.
 https://x.com/i/status/2043760548509090066


 https://x.com/i/status/2043760251963367481

[cycloneye]

Saipan and Tinian need to batten down the hatches. Guam should miss the worst of it with Rota getting a glancing blow. Impressive typhoon.......MGC

To let you know that moved your post from the WPAC thread to here.

[sasha_B]

Subjective DT still supports FT7.0 / CI 7.5, though barely - 6.5/7.0 might be more appropriate. ADT stands at 6.9/7.3. On the whole I think 145 kt and 900～910 kt is a decent estimate of current intensity (CKZ gives 904 hPa using the JTWC's 21z update's parameters, or 908 hPa using ADT's parameters and max wind speeds of 145 kt).

Pressure is down to 987 hPa at PGSN as the typhoon continues its approach.

[mrbagyo]

https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/airport-pgsn/graphs

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[cycloneye]

This is me posting at X. Translation to english.

Super Typhoon Sinlaku weakens a bit but continues to be category 5 with winds of 165 mph as it approaches Saipan in the Mariana Islands. See what the conditions are like in Saipan in the link to web cam.

https://www.earthcam.com/world/northern ... cam=saipan

 https://x.com/CycloforumsPR/status/2043811762013716675

[cycloneye]

ERC ongoing.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2043832569511166049

[ljmac75]

It's a testament to what a storm this was at peak that it's got a beautiful eye and an great satellite presentation and we're still all like "wow it's degraded quite a bit."

[mrbagyo]

Pressure in Saipan Intl Airport is down to 979 hPa
PGSN 140046Z AUTO 03046G70KT 3/4SM RA BR BKN010 OVC016 26/25 A2891 RMK AO2 PK WND 03083/0012 PRESFR P0010 T02560250 TSNO $

And we got another SAR pass.
Looks like there are 3 peaks with the outermost at 30-40 nmi from the center

[cycloneye]

Down to 135 kt.

04W SINLAKU 260414 0000 14.3N 146.5E WPAC 135 919

[sasha_B]

The JTWC's downgrade to 135 kt / 919 hPa for 0000z is a little more aggressive than I expected, but makes sense given how dramatic Sinlaku's deterioration has been. If the trend continues, it'll be at that intensity or lower by 0600z. This eyewall replacement cycle appears to be taking quite a toll (I say, of a storm that still has a 17～18°C eye surrounded by cloud tops ＜－70°C ).

[Hurricane2022]