Ivan Advisories

[HurricaneQueen]

Abajan: Great to see you back on line! How did you and your island make out? If you've already potted it, please point me in the right direction.

Thanks and welcome back,
Lynn

PS Congratulations on becoming a Tropical Storm!

[simplykristi]

WOW is all I can say!

Kristi

[GulfHills]

Good photo Brent, I just can't imagine this thing going near the U.S.

[drezee]

I understand. The only reason I thought about was I can remember being in Mobile, AL when they said Opal would hit the AL/FL line maybe as a Cat 5!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

04/1000 26.6 88.8 916 130 Minimum Pressure

[drezee]

I understand. The only reason I thought about was I can remember being in Mobile, AL when they said Opal would hit the AL/FL line maybe as a Cat 5!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

04/1000 26.6 88.8 916 130 Minimum Pressure

[WeatherNLU]

That is an amazing pic. Thanks so much Brent.......that's going into the collection!

[abajan]

Abajan: Great to see you back on line! How did you and your island make out? If you've already potted it, please point me in the right direction.

Thanks and welcome back,
Lynn

PS Congratulations on becoming a Tropical Storm!

Thanks, Lynn - great to be back!
Here you go: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20

[ColinD]

I would bet against it happening.

why?

Probability. It's an extremely rare event. Even if all the conditions are "right" it's still extremely rare. Category 5s are rare enough and on top of that we're discussing strong category 5's.

[ColinD]

one makes a bet based on better than 50-50 ods......so with that in mind a sub-920 Ivan is probably 100-1.......so assuming a 1-1 payout, one can easily answer the "why" question posed earlier.

There ya go

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Intensity is quite uncertain; but I've allowed land to significantly factor into this prediction--bringing Ivan to 90kts in the GOM in 120 hours. Also, I plan on looking rather deeply into the steering currents ahead of Ivan for the later portions of the period.

(Corrected for title)

[lilbump3000]

So i guess you going with the models thats on crack tonight. Well we will see in the long run.

[Anonymous]

Last week he was pretty much against the model runs. This week, he is pretty much in some sort of alignment with the model runs.


I say look out Pascagoula to Panama City.

[schmita]

ISSUED BY: Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA)
DATE: September 7, 2004
TIME: 7:30 pm

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

GRENADA SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HURRICANE IVAN – CDERA AND PARTNERS DEPLOYING
IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE

Barbados, Sep 07, 2004 (CDERA) – Grenada, a member state of the Caribbean
Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) was severely impacted by Hurricane
Ivan. Three people are confirmed dead.


The Capital St Georges suffered incalculable damage. The Emergency Operations
Centre (EOC) and the residence of Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell were
destroyed. The EOC is presently relocating and re-establishing communications.

Thanks Brent. See what I mean? 3 dead confirmed!!!

[Brent]

I know that. I have heard reports it's as many as 9. We'll let the numbers ring out later. My fascination with watching these storms is going to continue no matter how deadly they are. I can't control the weather. As long as there's a hurricane, I will track it from birth to death. I'm sorry if you find that "sick". I hate that people die too.

[FritzPaul]

I saw in the stats forum NCWW is only 16yrs old.

So he's got to Know more than the rest of us. LOL

[chemist44]

Folks, it's getting really bad in southern mountains...Have had 9+ inches in Black Mountain...predicting another 8-10 inches. all of upstate SC and Western NC having catatrophic flooding. French Broad River and Swannanoa River predicted to be 10 feet over flood stage by morning. Reports of dam breaking in Montreat, NC...mudslides reported in Haywood and Buncombe counties. Had to open spillgates for Asheville watershed, causing massive flooding along Hwy 74 and 81....Lake Lure Dam on verge of collapse...Broad River out of banks and threatening Chimney Rock area.... starting to build my ark!

[latemodel25]

No kidding? Ive been so dammed wrapped up in this hurricane stuff I havent heard anything about it. Weve got property in jonathan valley- waynesville. I had no idea this was happening. were going up in october maybe sooner now. I am sorry to here this!

[chicagopizza]

Can I just comment that I am seriously amazed at the knowledge in this forum. It's like living, breathing Cliff's notes for Hurricanes. Like I stated before, I know chocolate-not Hurricanes.

My final decision is always based on local officials, but very interesting to watch the analysis process. This group is tops in my book.

[Mattie]

Someone else made a comment to me about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game with the Pirates video that showed Charley and Frances and then letting the Bucs know that the Pirates were on the way? (Not a football fan) In effect, said that it was tasteless because the lives and property that were destroyed in Florida. Well, you know? Football will go on - it is the American way. Did you know that people traveled to Tampa for a football game during Charley? It was a kids team from somewhere if I remember correctly. Now, what WERE they thinking to put more lives in danger?

It is awful that terrible weather events happen. They happen so often - in 2003 - the final number of tornados that happened were 1376 with 54 deaths. Do we hear about those and the property damage estimates when houses are flattened? Not usually - and especially not for as long as we hear about a hurricane.

Weather is fascinating! IF tornados, ligthening strikes that kill, and any other weather event could be predicted and watched like hurricanes, we would be all over that in a moment. The media brings a lot of this to us front and center, but it is for a 30 second story and quickly forgotten by most of us unless it happened where we live.

Acts of mother nature - their development and the aftermath are just simply things that make you go AWWW! Volcanos, earthquakes, floods - HOW does it happen? WHY does it happen? We as people have no control over the weather except to watch, wait, warn and take appropriate action where necessary. (And we all know that some will stay no matter what!)

I also wonder WHY people that hate to read about the devastation and are blasting others because they are weather watchers, continue to READ posts such as these. If you want just information and no opinions, feelings, observations, etc., then the NHC is probably a better site for people who just want the facts.

Just thought I'd get that off my chest . . . no offense to ANYONE intended.

[Stormcenter]

I saw in the stats forum NCWW is only 16yrs old.

So he's got to Know more than the rest of us. LOL

I give the young man credit for trying. I wish my 16 year
would be so interested in weather.