H Emily Recon Reports

[drezee]

heights are up over 100m...maybe they didn't miss...

[Normandy]

Winds support a Cat 5 tho, so the pressure doesnt matter.

[senorpepr]

Yeah, cat five... something to hoot and holler about.

I'm not hooting and hollering....but readily admit I'm sitting here in awe of what we're witnessing....totally stunned at two monster hurricanes within 10 days that I honestly thought were NOT possible before August.

Before July 2005....there had never been even one 150 mph hurricane in the Atlantic basin during June or July; not once during 154 years (1851-2004). Now two have developed in the same July....the odds of that occurring have to be astronomical.

My fear is this is only a sign of what is coming down the pike in August, September, and likely October....a record breaking hurricane season none of us will even forget.

PW

Oh yeah, Perry. I agree. I'm too at all about this. I do get impressed with the visual of seeing such a powerful hurricane. However, my comment was directed toward those who are saying "sweet" and "cat 5!!!!" I think there is a line between being in awe and cheering for a category five.

I agree, this is veyr interesting and makes me very concerned about what we'll see in the months ahead.

[gkrangers]

Infrared shows some warming on the south and west sides, pressure up, and the eye is no longer circular. I would not expect an upgrade to Category 5.

[drezee]

Whoever changed the title of this thread saying that this is a category 5, is misinformed. Until an OFFICIAL statement is out, I wouldn't say it is a category 5. Remember, that this board is read by many people and that statement could be misleading.

Besides, latest vortex data message indicates that the pressure is back up to 939 mb, which would likely be factor that makes them NOT upgrade...

Only an admin can change the title or the creator (which is an admin), probably Cycloneye

[senorpepr]

still very borderline.

they may keep it as a 4, especially with the pressure now UP to 939

I believe you may be right, Derek. They've done it before... be conservative with high pressure.

[Normandy]

Infrared shows some warming on the south and west sides, pressure up, and the eye is no longer circular. I would not expect an upgrade to Category 5.

Maybe an ERC.

[SouthernWx]

Guys, that 939 mb vortex fix was sent from the aircraft while in the eye...BEFORE entering the NE eyewall where 153 kt winds were measured.

PW

[drezee]

still very borderline.

they may keep it as a 4, especially with the pressure now UP to 939

I believe you may be right, Derek. They've done it before... be conservative with high pressure.

Like I said in the post before, they will not mess with history unless they have everything pointing to Cat 5.

[Hyperstorm]

Winds support a Cat 5 tho, so the pressure doesnt matter.

Tell that to Beven when he wrote the morning's discussion saying (was it the 151 kts winds?) that the then FL winds didn't support a 155 mph storm because the pressure was too high for a category 5.

The forecaster on duty (Knabb) is between a rock and a hard place...

[gkrangers]

Infrared shows some warming on the south and west sides, pressure up, and the eye is no longer circular. I would not expect an upgrade to Category 5.

Maybe an ERC.

I've been expecting one tonight, since its had ERCs the last two nights.

[cycloneye]

Yes I included the cat 5 news but only based in what senorpepr posted about the 153kt winds.But the later data dont supports a cat 5 so it took only seconds for me to take it out.

[TexasSam]

'Pepper: can you join teamspeak?

[drezee]

Are those 61 knot winds in an eye drop?

889
UZNT13 KNHC 170337
XXAA 67037 99174 70804 04570 99939 27206 08510 00/// ///// /////
92134 25809 08010 85878 22602 08016 70568 21261 08015 88999 77999
31313 09608 80320
61616 AF304 1005A EMILY OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1742N08044W 0324 MBL WND 08010 AEV 20507 DLM WND 08
014 938706 WL150 08009 080 =
XXBB 67038 99174 70804 04570 00939 27206 11900 24006 22850 22602
33781 19212 44774 19832 55768 22859 66702 21662 77697 20461
21212 00939 08510 11903 07510 22850 08016 33796 09019 44736 07015
55697 08014
31313 09608 80320
61616 AF304 1005A EMILY OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1742N08044W 0324 MBL WND 08010 AEV 20507 DLM WND 08
014 938706 WL150 08009 080 =

[jwayne]

not a cat 5. latest sat. pics show eye filling (not just contracting). Will probably weaken some over the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey I agree with you .... it great to look at but not a happy matter....... I belive that had been a five for the past few hours ...... Senorpepr come to team speak!! I also see a possibel ERC Starting the eye has contracted from 18mi earlier to less then 12 now and the eye seems to be becoming a little ragged !!

[gkrangers]

Infrared might be starting to display concentric eyewalls.

[drezee]

Will the talented decoders please decode the drops above?

[Swimdude]

Not a cat. 5 at the moment. Here comes another EWRC.

[southerngale]

I could be wrong, but I think senor was at work and didn't have access to Teamspeak. Perhaps he'll join after he gets home.