Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

That's what I would call "HOT WATER" 30º Celcius (86º F).

[Recurve]

Oh please, not the BAMM.
Do not like to see long trackers slide just north of Hispanola. But then south is bad for the Gulf and they don't need anyting else for years.

[cycloneye]

PROBABLE 12-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 17/1800Z
OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 11.5N 58.0W.

[cjrciadt]

"Possible" intensity forecasts

[PuertoRicoLibre]

58W???? That is really bad news for the Caribbean.

[Brent]

58W???? That is really bad news for the Caribbean.

That's where it's forecast to be Saturday... looks like an Emily or Ivan-type track(at least initially).

[scostorms]

Eeek. What depression are we coming up to, 12?

[cycloneye]

Eeek. What depression are we coming up to, 12?

If it forms into a TD it would be TD17.

[Brent]

Yep... Ophelia was 16.

[clfenwi]

First GFDL run that doesn't kill off the system:

WHXX04 KWBC 151723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.6 46.5 272./11.1
6 10.2 46.8 332./ 7.6
12 11.1 48.1 304./15.9
18 12.1 48.9 319./11.9
24 13.0 49.7 320./12.1
30 13.9 50.2 333./10.2
36 14.4 51.1 300./10.0
42 15.2 51.4 337./ 8.2
48 15.8 52.1 310./ 9.5
54 16.2 52.3 337./ 4.6
60 17.2 52.5 352./ 9.6
66 17.6 52.8 322./ 5.1
72 18.0 52.9 346./ 4.2
78 18.6 52.8 8./ 5.8
84 19.2 52.8 355./ 6.0
90 19.9 53.2 338./ 8.1
96 21.0 53.5 341./10.8
102 21.9 54.0 332./10.7
108 22.9 54.5 336./10.6
114 23.8 55.0 329./10.5
120 24.6 55.6 326./ 9.7
126 25.6 56.0 336./10.0

[MortisFL]

way north...

First GFDL run that doesn't kill off the system:

WHXX04 KWBC 151723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.6 46.5 272./11.1
6 10.2 46.8 332./ 7.6
12 11.1 48.1 304./15.9
18 12.1 48.9 319./11.9
24 13.0 49.7 320./12.1
30 13.9 50.2 333./10.2
36 14.4 51.1 300./10.0
42 15.2 51.4 337./ 8.2
48 15.8 52.1 310./ 9.5
54 16.2 52.3 337./ 4.6
60 17.2 52.5 352./ 9.6
66 17.6 52.8 322./ 5.1
72 18.0 52.9 346./ 4.2
78 18.6 52.8 8./ 5.8
84 19.2 52.8 355./ 6.0
90 19.9 53.2 338./ 8.1
96 21.0 53.5 341./10.8
102 21.9 54.0 332./10.7
108 22.9 54.5 336./10.6
114 23.8 55.0 329./10.5
120 24.6 55.6 326./ 9.7
126 25.6 56.0 336./10.0

[gtalum]

GFDL and UKMET show the storm moving NNW. But they both seem to have initialized too far north (especially UKMET!).

[cinlfla]

Oh yeah.....The gfdl and the ukmet are both to far north with 95l even if the position was right that have it moving north like now, and I just don't see it.

[CHRISTY]

this wave near puerto rico is flaring up today ! do any models show this wave developeing into a storm?

[cinlfla]

this wave near puerto rico is flaring up today ! do any models show this wave developeing into a storm?

I'm not sure about it being a depression or anything but it looks like some of the models send a low to south florida. There is a thread here about the CMC model and the wave near PR.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74378

[cycloneye]

15/1745 UTC 9.4N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean


Latest SSD Dvorak T numbers this afternoon dont support TD status.

No TD at 5 PM nor at 11 PM unless it organizes quickly as it's taking it's time doing so.

[Brent]

Yeah... the satellite imagery doesn't look quite as impressive either.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 151829
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050915 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050915 1800 050916 0600 050916 1800 050917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.3N 47.7W 9.6N 50.5W 9.9N 52.8W 10.4N 54.7W
BAMM 9.3N 47.7W 10.1N 49.9W 11.0N 51.8W 11.9N 53.2W
A98E 9.3N 47.7W 9.5N 50.0W 9.8N 52.4W 9.9N 54.7W
LBAR 9.3N 47.7W 9.8N 50.2W 10.5N 52.8W 11.4N 55.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050917 1800 050918 1800 050919 1800 050920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 56.2W 11.4N 58.4W 11.9N 60.7W 13.2N 63.4W
BAMM 12.8N 54.2W 13.6N 55.2W 14.0N 56.5W 14.5N 58.2W
A98E 9.8N 56.7W 10.6N 60.5W 11.3N 64.2W 12.3N 68.0W
LBAR 12.1N 57.8W 13.6N 61.2W 14.5N 63.7W 14.9N 65.8W
SHIP 52KTS 66KTS 77KTS 84KTS
DSHP 52KTS 66KTS 77KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 47.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 8.9N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[apocalypt-flyer]

This slower it develops the bigger is the chance for a more northern track, isn't it? ..

[southerngale]

This slower it develops the bigger is the chance for a more northern track, isn't it? ..

I think it's just the opposite.