Tropical Wave at Caribbean

boca · #221 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:29 pm

92L better not pull any surprises out of its sleeve.It looks like its moving WNW and could be another headache wants it gets to the Western Caribbean.Stay away from Florida.

#222 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:32 pm

11:30

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY.

they say nothing about td formation :wink:

#223 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:36 pm

#224 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:36 pm

boca · #225 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:38 pm

Ivanhater I think the only saving grace with these systems is that the water temp should keep 92L in check if it gets into Florida or by you in Pensecola.

caribepr · #226 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 2:52 pm

boca wrote:Ivanhater I think the only saving grace with these systems is that the water temp should keep 92L in check if it gets into Florida or by you in Pensecola.

Well, we're getting it now...went from sunny blue skies to literally a few minutes ago dark enough to turn on lights and torrential rain right now.

boca · #227 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:18 pm

It doesn't seem that people are too concerned with 92L maybe I'm just uneasy because of Wilma but look.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

#228 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:26 pm

I wouldn't be too concerned with 92L. Shear is not favorable for development, and the waters are relatively cool out of the Caribbean. In fact, the Maximum Potential Intensity for the waters in the Gulf and off the FL coast are about 950-960mb. No storm other than Lili has exceeded the MPI, so I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. A loop of the total oceanic heat content for the Gulf indicates that the time fo strong tropical activity (major hurricane) in the Gulf is nearing an end. Always good to be aware and attentive, but I wouldn't change any plans by any means.

Deb321 · #229 Postby **Deb321** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:33 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:I wouldn't be too concerned with 92L. Shear is not favorable for development, and the waters are relatively cool out of the Caribbean. In fact, the Maximum Potential Intensity for the waters in the Gulf and off the FL coast are about 950-960mb. No storm other than Lili has exceeded the MPI, so I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. A loop of the total oceanic heat content for the Gulf indicates that the time fo strong tropical activity (major hurricane) in the Gulf is nearing an end. Always good to be aware and attentive, but I wouldn't change any plans by any means.

So you think the chance of a hurricane coming to florida at this point is slim? I sure hope so I have had enough stress for one season.

#230 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:58 pm

Deb321 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:I wouldn't be too concerned with 92L. Shear is not favorable for development, and the waters are relatively cool out of the Caribbean. In fact, the Maximum Potential Intensity for the waters in the Gulf and off the FL coast are about 950-960mb. No storm other than Lili has exceeded the MPI, so I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. A loop of the total oceanic heat content for the Gulf indicates that the time fo strong tropical activity (major hurricane) in the Gulf is nearing an end. Always good to be aware and attentive, but I wouldn't change any plans by any means.

So you think the chance of a hurricane coming to florida at this point is slim? I sure hope so I have had enough stress for one season.

Slim? Yes. Non-existant? Nope. It's always a good idea to keep abreast of the tropical weather until probably mid-December, but I don't think you'll have to deal with a major hurricane again this year. But hey, that's like telling a Texan that they don't need to worry about tornadoes this time of year -- there's almost always a threat, but I wouldn't be too paranoid about it.

#231 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 5:08 pm

92L has a new position: 16.0N 69.0W

<IMG SRC="http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_data/tc_pages/thumbs/ATL/92L.INVEST/vis/1km_zoom/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20051031.2045.goes12.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-160N-690W.jpg">

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Deb321 · #232 Postby **Deb321** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 5:09 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
Deb321 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:I wouldn't be too concerned with 92L. Shear is not favorable for development, and the waters are relatively cool out of the Caribbean. In fact, the Maximum Potential Intensity for the waters in the Gulf and off the FL coast are about 950-960mb. No storm other than Lili has exceeded the MPI, so I wouldn't be too concerned at this time. A loop of the total oceanic heat content for the Gulf indicates that the time fo strong tropical activity (major hurricane) in the Gulf is nearing an end. Always good to be aware and attentive, but I wouldn't change any plans by any means.

So you think the chance of a hurricane coming to florida at this point is slim? I sure hope so I have had enough stress for one season.

Slim? Yes. Non-existant? Nope. It's always a good idea to keep abreast of the tropical weather until probably mid-December, but I don't think you'll have to deal with a major hurricane again this year. But hey, that's like telling a Texan that they don't need to worry about tornadoes this time of year -- there's almost always a threat, but I wouldn't be too paranoid about it.

ok thanks for the info and I will continue to watch until Dec. it has been such as crazy season one thing I have learned is never say never.

tampaflwx · #233 Postby **tampaflwx** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 6:24 pm

any new models?

#234 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 6:53 pm

tampaflwx wrote:any new models?

not yet

#235 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:02 pm

boca wrote:Ivanhater I think the only saving grace with these systems is that the water temp should keep 92L in check if it gets into Florida or by you in Pensecola.

true, but its pensacola not pensecola and pensacola is in florida, lol...just messing with you :wink:

f5 · #236 Postby f5 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:24 pm

i hate to get off topic but this forum is very quiet which may be a good sign as far as the tropics go

#237 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 10:33 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON OCT 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

#238 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Oct 31, 2005 11:51 pm

things look to be about done....nothing is sustaining itself... that wave in the eastern atl...will die off...water is too cold now. anyway, its been a biootch of a year....well, round 2 will be the winter...

no advance · #239 Postby **no advance** » Tue Nov 01, 2005 7:06 am

Looks to be having another life. Plenty of warm water down there.

Weatherfreak14 · #240 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:31 am

SST here in SC is 63 degrees right now. Boy it sure got cool fast.

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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