NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?
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Scorpion
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CHRISTY
I really don't think Spring ridge conditions have anything to do with landfalls in the United States. Can anyone point me to some sort of documentation that supports this theory? In addition, for the past 30 days.. there has been a big trough along 60w.. see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif
this type of pattern would favor the western gulf. but really i don't think it means anything
this type of pattern would favor the western gulf. but really i don't think it means anything
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Audrey2Katrina
- Category 5
- Posts: 4252
- Age: 76
- Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
- Location: Metaire, La.
I don't know that it's a precursor to anything in particular yet. Where it finally ends up in or around July/August doubtless will, I'm still looking for an active CV season with more hits along the East Coast than the last two years have had... we shall see.
A2K
A2K
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23694
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Benny, there is a debate whether there is a connection, but most of the evidence points toward no connection. If we see the long wave pattern persist for most of the spring it will arouse some suspicion but we are not seeing that (as evidence by this powerful trough). What we have seen this past winter is a fairly persistent upper level ridge in the Western Atlantic , GOM, and Caribbean, however, there have been some weaknesses in it. The past two active years for FL saw strong storms hit because of strong ridging (e.g. Frances, Jeanne, Ivan, Katrina) AND to lack of ridging and more troughiness (e.g. Wilma and Charley).
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benny wrote:I really don't think Spring ridge conditions have anything to do with landfalls in the United States. Can anyone point me to some sort of documentation that supports this theory? In addition, for the past 30 days.. there has been a big trough along 60w.. see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif
this type of pattern would favor the western gulf. but really i don't think it means anything
agreed...
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MiamiensisWx
Latest from Miami NWS... any thoughts?
000
FXUS62 KMFL 251922
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006
...RECORD LOWS EXPECTED FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH TONIGHT...
...COOL SPELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.DISCUSSION...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. TEMPS AT 1 PM ARE CLOSING IN ON 70F EAST COAST...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. NAPLES IS ON
TARGET TO BREAK THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR THIS DATE. CLEAR SKIES
AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD LATE MARCH
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FL. IN FACT...AM FORECASTING RECORD LOW TEMPS
FOR AREAS FROM NAPLES TO IMMOKALEE TO BELLE GLADE TO WEST PALM
BEACH. EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FL...TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE SE
COAST.
MODELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO DECIDED TO TREND THE WIND SPEEDS DOWN. THE FAWN NETWORK
SHOWED WINDS UNDER 5 MPH THIS MORNING AND...SINCE IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...BELIEVE THIS AGAIN
WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT AS DECOUPLING OCCURS. SO BASED ON
THIS...WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE EXPECTED MINS
TONIGHT.
FROST IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A POTENTIAL
FROST...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE GROUND IS MUCH WARMER NOW
COMPARED TO WINTER.
THIS SPRINGTIME COOL SPELL WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT NAPLES AGAIN MAY NOT
REACH 70 AGAIN TOMORROW.
RETURN EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO CLIMO...OR EVEN ABOVE
CLIMO...BY WEEKS END. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AND FRONTS REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...GULF STREAM SEAS WILL CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADV REMAINS UP FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
LOOK TO BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 251922
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006
...RECORD LOWS EXPECTED FROM NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH TONIGHT...
...COOL SPELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.DISCUSSION...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. TEMPS AT 1 PM ARE CLOSING IN ON 70F EAST COAST...BUT ARE
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. NAPLES IS ON
TARGET TO BREAK THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR THIS DATE. CLEAR SKIES
AND COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD LATE MARCH
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FL. IN FACT...AM FORECASTING RECORD LOW TEMPS
FOR AREAS FROM NAPLES TO IMMOKALEE TO BELLE GLADE TO WEST PALM
BEACH. EXPECTED LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FL...TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE SE
COAST.
MODELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO DECIDED TO TREND THE WIND SPEEDS DOWN. THE FAWN NETWORK
SHOWED WINDS UNDER 5 MPH THIS MORNING AND...SINCE IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...BELIEVE THIS AGAIN
WILL BE THE CASE TONIGHT AS DECOUPLING OCCURS. SO BASED ON
THIS...WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE EXPECTED MINS
TONIGHT.
FROST IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MINS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A POTENTIAL
FROST...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE GROUND IS MUCH WARMER NOW
COMPARED TO WINTER.
THIS SPRINGTIME COOL SPELL WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT NAPLES AGAIN MAY NOT
REACH 70 AGAIN TOMORROW.
RETURN EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO CLIMO...OR EVEN ABOVE
CLIMO...BY WEEKS END. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE REMAINING LOW AND FRONTS REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...GULF STREAM SEAS WILL CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADV REMAINS UP FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS. WINDS/SEAS
LOOK TO BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7393
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
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meteorologyman
- Category 2
- Posts: 541
- Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
- Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud
(I did post this in 2006 countdown) You know I cant help think that there is an 80% chance or higher for hurricane and a major one at that to hit the Gulf and the Eastcoast, does that put Florida in a middle of a hard place?
......... I have a very bad feeling this year, especially since they're predicting stronger hurricanes, mabey even stronger than Katrina
......... I have a very bad feeling this year, especially since they're predicting stronger hurricanes, mabey even stronger than Katrina
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Scorpion
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MiamiensisWx
A return to a summer-like ridging and temperature pattern is now expected in the latest Miami NWS discussion... look here!
000
FXUS62 KMFL 261535
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2006
.UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AFTER A
COLD START TO THE MORNING. WEST PALM BEACH BROKE THE RECORD LOW
THIS MORNING...FALLING TO 47 DEGREES. EVEN SOME UPPER 30S WERE
RECORDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
MAXIMUM LATE MARCH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 70S...SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN VERY LOW
RH`S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALREADY AS OF 10 AM...RH`S ARE IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. RED FLAG CONDITIONS/INCREASED FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. JUST INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE
BAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. /DG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST CURVING NE WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUING TO MOVE E TOWARD THE
E U.S. COAST. THE DRY NW TO N SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY.
THE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE MON WITH A NE SURFACE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT THE E COAST BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED
MON ACROSS THE S FLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER OF HIGH THE PRES RIDGE
MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT THE RIDGE EXTENDS W AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WELL TO THE N.
MOISTURE IMPORTED ON EASTERLY WINDS BEGINS MON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. BUT AT THE MOMENT...ANY SHOWERS QUITE MEAGER
AND NOT PLACED IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. BUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG THE E COAST LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPS TODAY STILL
WELL BELOW NORMS...VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH MINIMUMS TONIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WILL BE RECORDED THIS MORNING. A SLOW
WARMUP MON THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAX/MIN NORMS EXPECTED BY WED
..THEN GRADUALLY GOING BEYOND NORMS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING BUT GULF STREAM SEAS
STILL 7 FEET+. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLC WATERS AS GULF
STREAM SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 261535
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2006
.UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AFTER A
COLD START TO THE MORNING. WEST PALM BEACH BROKE THE RECORD LOW
THIS MORNING...FALLING TO 47 DEGREES. EVEN SOME UPPER 30S WERE
RECORDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
MAXIMUM LATE MARCH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 70S...SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN VERY LOW
RH`S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALREADY AS OF 10 AM...RH`S ARE IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. RED FLAG CONDITIONS/INCREASED FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. JUST INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE
BAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. /DG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST CURVING NE WITH
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUING TO MOVE E TOWARD THE
E U.S. COAST. THE DRY NW TO N SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY.
THE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE MON WITH A NE SURFACE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT THE E COAST BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED
MON ACROSS THE S FLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER OF HIGH THE PRES RIDGE
MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT THE RIDGE EXTENDS W AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WELL TO THE N.
MOISTURE IMPORTED ON EASTERLY WINDS BEGINS MON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. BUT AT THE MOMENT...ANY SHOWERS QUITE MEAGER
AND NOT PLACED IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. BUT SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG THE E COAST LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPS TODAY STILL
WELL BELOW NORMS...VERY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH MINIMUMS TONIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WILL BE RECORDED THIS MORNING. A SLOW
WARMUP MON THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAX/MIN NORMS EXPECTED BY WED
..THEN GRADUALLY GOING BEYOND NORMS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING BUT GULF STREAM SEAS
STILL 7 FEET+. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLC WATERS AS GULF
STREAM SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE.
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Weatherfreak000
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MiamiensisWx
Strong ridging and easterly winds forecast through the entire week...
000
FXUS62 KMFL 291516 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006
.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOWING UP ON
RADAR SO WILL UPDATE THE COASTALS AND ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHOW THIS.
12Z MIAMI SOUNDING EXTREMELY DRY ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET BUT FAIRLY
UNSTABLE BELOW THAT SO LOW TOPPED SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ALREADY WELL OUT TO SEA SO NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
UPWARD A BIT. OTHERWISE PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDINESS IS MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 30
KTS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z SOUNDING WITH WINDS AT 400 MB AT
30 KNOTS. THIS SPEED SHOULD BRING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD
MASS TO THE EAST COAST AROUND 14 TO 15 GMT...SO BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SOME CLEARING SHOULD START. SO WHILE THE FORECAST AS
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING...ITS MAINLY REFERRING TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND THOUGHT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WAS TOO HIGH AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. SEE ALSO FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION REGARDING
THE TEMP FORECAST.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT AND LONGER TERM. A
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE FRONT NOW
EXITING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM PUSHING VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT AT ALL ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN
BY FRIDAY ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND PREVENT A SECOND FRONT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MOST
OF THE ENTIRE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY FROM LIKELY HAVING MUCH
AFFECT ON FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SO FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MARINE CONDITIONS...MAINLY EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION AND WINDS
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO SWELL
IS EXPECTED...SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 291516 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006
.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOWING UP ON
RADAR SO WILL UPDATE THE COASTALS AND ZONES AND GRIDS TO SHOW THIS.
12Z MIAMI SOUNDING EXTREMELY DRY ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET BUT FAIRLY
UNSTABLE BELOW THAT SO LOW TOPPED SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ALREADY WELL OUT TO SEA SO NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
UPWARD A BIT. OTHERWISE PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDINESS IS MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 30
KTS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z SOUNDING WITH WINDS AT 400 MB AT
30 KNOTS. THIS SPEED SHOULD BRING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD
MASS TO THE EAST COAST AROUND 14 TO 15 GMT...SO BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SOME CLEARING SHOULD START. SO WHILE THE FORECAST AS
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING...ITS MAINLY REFERRING TO MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE MAX TEMPS
TODAY...AND THOUGHT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WAS TOO HIGH AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. SEE ALSO FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION REGARDING
THE TEMP FORECAST.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT AND LONGER TERM. A
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE FRONT NOW
EXITING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM PUSHING VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT AT ALL ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN
BY FRIDAY ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND PREVENT A SECOND FRONT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MOST
OF THE ENTIRE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY FROM LIKELY HAVING MUCH
AFFECT ON FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SO FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MARINE CONDITIONS...MAINLY EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION AND WINDS
MAINLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NO SWELL
IS EXPECTED...SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE MARINE CONDITIONS.
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MiamiensisWx
Look at this... no rain, strong ridge, and strong easterlies all the way through!
000
FXUS62 KMFL 291909
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006
.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN STORE FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...ALBEIT WITH
MINOR RIPPLES...AND A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS AT THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLE MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WAS ALREADY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY NOON. LOW LEVEL
FRICTION INDUCED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW SEEM TO BE WANING NOW
AS MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES. 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS
VERY DRY ABOVE 6K FEET BUT EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 12K
FEET NOW SO SOME CONTINUED MOISTENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY
BUT WEAKENING ALL THE WAY. IT WILL LEND A LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE PROBABLY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND MAYBE
EXTREME SOUTH DADE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS NOW ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
PULL UP STATIONARY NEAR NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AXIS OF THE RIDGE
PROBABLY WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY BUT THEN MOVING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE UNFORTUNATELY.
AN ASIDE...FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 0.03
INCH OF RAIN IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET THEIR DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD...SINCE 1913...IF NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AND NAPLES...WITH ONLY 0.08 INCH IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET
THEIR FIFTH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD...SINCE 1942. WEST PALM BEACH AND
MIAMI RECEIVED MORE RAIN LAST WEEK AND ARE NOT ANYWHERE NEAR A
RECORD.
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE GULF COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENING THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
DRIEST AREAS OF BIG CYPRESS AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND SOUTH
BROWARD AND SOUTH DADE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 35 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 80 68 81 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 80 71 81 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 67 81 70 82 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 60 82 62 82 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 291909
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006
.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN STORE FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...ALBEIT WITH
MINOR RIPPLES...AND A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS AT THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLE MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WAS ALREADY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY NOON. LOW LEVEL
FRICTION INDUCED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLY FLOW SEEM TO BE WANING NOW
AS MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES. 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS
VERY DRY ABOVE 6K FEET BUT EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 12K
FEET NOW SO SOME CONTINUED MOISTENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY
BUT WEAKENING ALL THE WAY. IT WILL LEND A LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT BUT BEST CHANCE PROBABLY WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND MAYBE
EXTREME SOUTH DADE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS NOW ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
PULL UP STATIONARY NEAR NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AXIS OF THE RIDGE
PROBABLY WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY BUT THEN MOVING BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
CONTINUE UNFORTUNATELY.
AN ASIDE...FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 0.03
INCH OF RAIN IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET THEIR DRIEST MARCH ON
RECORD...SINCE 1913...IF NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AND NAPLES...WITH ONLY 0.08 INCH IN MARCH SO FAR...WOULD SET
THEIR FIFTH DRIEST MARCH ON RECORD...SINCE 1942. WEST PALM BEACH AND
MIAMI RECEIVED MORE RAIN LAST WEEK AND ARE NOT ANYWHERE NEAR A
RECORD.
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE GULF COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENING THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
DRIEST AREAS OF BIG CYPRESS AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND SOUTH
BROWARD AND SOUTH DADE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 35 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 65 80 68 81 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 80 71 81 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 67 81 70 82 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 60 82 62 82 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
50
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MiamiensisWx
No rain and sunny conditions all the way through in my area...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Boca+Raton&state=FL&site=MFL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Boca+Raton&state=FL&site=MFL
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23694
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Latest NWS Discuss shows strong ridging. This long wave pattern is clearly persisting into Spring. Thoughts? At what point do we start wondering if it will really just disappear for long enough periods in the summer to not allow a chance for some direct hits on the U.S. mainland? I am thinking it will be a major player yet again this year and I am fairly certain we'll see at least one major Hurricane get steered around the High coming very close if not hitting the U.S. mainland.
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CHRISTY
hey boca florida has been active with continued hurricane strikes both in 2004 and 2005!i see no reason why thats gonna change in 2006!well see.boca_chris wrote:Latest NWS Discuss shows strong ridging. This long wave pattern is clearly persisting into Spring. Thoughts? At what point do we start wondering if it will really just disappear for long enough periods in the summer to not allow a chance for some direct hits on the U.S. mainland? I am thinking it will be a major player yet again this year.
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