Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

Gorky · #221 Postby **Gorky** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:11 am

Eye is becoming very small.... Looking incredibly impressive now..

#222 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:35 am

MONICA CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE!!!

#223 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:41 am

125kts sustained. :eek:

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1330 UTC 22 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 20 nautical miles of
12.1 S 138.7 E moving northwest at 5 knots. Central pressure 925 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in the
southern semicircle

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 125 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre, extending to 120
nautical miles in the southern semicircle, with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

0000 UTC 23 Apr: centre within 45 nautical miles of 11.7 S 137.6 E.
925 hPa. Winds to 125 knots near centre.
1200 UTC 23 Apr: centre within 80 nautical miles of 11.5 S 136.1 E.
925 hPa. Winds to 125 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

HurricaneHunter914 · #224 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:41 am

Since she is incredibly strong, will she go under a EWRC soon?

KWT · #225 Postby **KWT** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:55 am

Wow, Monica actually reminds me a little of Wilma when it had the super small eye CHRISTY.
Presently this is how the satilites veiw it, look at that pressure!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 908.0mb/140.0kt

#226 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:09 am

P.K. wrote:125kts sustained.

125 knots is a 10 - min estimate, therefore, 125 knots X 1.14 = 142.5 knots or 164.16 mph.

Category 5 no matter the scale!!!

x-y-no · #227 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:18 am

Impressive looking system.

I still get a little disoriented looking at southern hemisphere storms, though. :lol:

HurricaneHunter914 · #228 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:22 am

For some reason for me, since I've been seeing so many strong CAT-5 southern hemisphere canes the Northern hemisphere canes now look strange to me.

#229 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:50 am

CHRISTY · #230 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:00 am

ALL I CAN SAY IS INCREDIBLE!!!! :crazyeyes:

Sanibel · #231 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:33 am

NRL Monterey:

916

Monica should weaken slightly before Darwin due to land interaction.

Cyclone is now of killer intensity following identical track to Ingrid. Wessel Islands should receive category 5 hit.

Strangely, 916 and hazed-over eye.

Cyclone exhibits signs of further intensification.

Gusts in Monica now near 210 mph!

- Sanibel

#232 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:34 am

22/1333 UTC 12.1S 138.5E T6.5/6.5 MONICA -- South Pacific Ocean

DVORAK BEGINS TO CATCH UP!!!

HurricaneBill · #233 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:44 am

Regardless of her intensity when she hits, this won't be good for places that were hit last year by Ingrid.

BTW, isn't Monica close to breakng the record for latest cyclone to hit Australia? I thought the record was Cyclone Orson on April 23, 1989.

CHRISTY · #234 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:45 am

This puts Monica at the same intensity level observed in a strong category 4 hurricane like Charley, and stronger than Katrina and Rita were at landfall.... :sick:

HurricaneBill · #235 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:46 am

Wow, Australia has been pounded this season by 4 hurricane strength cyclones:

Cyclone Clare
Cyclone Larry
Cyclone Glenda
Cyclone Monica

CHRISTY · #236 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:51 am

HurricaneBill wrote:Wow, Australia has been pounded this season by 4 hurricane strength cyclones:

Cyclone Clare
Cyclone Larry
Cyclone Glenda
Cyclone Monica

yep 4 cyclones....hopefully this is not a sign of things we might see in 2006 in the atlantic.

HurricaneHunter914 · #237 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 11:37 am

I hope not, I hate the makeup days for school that are taken from summer vacation.

#238 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:04 pm

CHRISTY wrote:This puts Monica at the same intensity level observed in a strong category 4 hurricane like Charley, and stronger than Katrina and Rita were at landfall....

It is easily a cat 5 equivalent on the SS scale so stronger than Charley et al.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #239 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:19 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Saturday 22 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between PORT
ROPER and GOULBURN ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH now extends west for coastal and island communities between
GOULBURN ISLAND and CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE ISLAND.

At 10 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 205
kilometres east of Nhulunbuy, and 320 kilometres northeast of Alyangula, moving
northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should maintain its current
intensity as it moves towards the west northwest across the northern Gulf of
Carpentaria overnight.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY, from early on Sunday morning.
GALES are expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres
per hour in this area from later Sunday morning. GALES near the outer edge of
the cyclone may extend as far south as PORT ROPER overnight, including
ALYANGULA, or west to GOULBURN ISLAND later on Sunday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour may approach the northern Arnhem Land coast later on Sunday
or Monday.

GALES may extend further west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE
ISLAND, during Monday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND during Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas and Monday in northeastern Arnhem land on Sunday and extending
across the remainder of the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.1 degrees South 138.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 10 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between PORT ROPER and GOULBURN
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and
MELVILLE ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST Sunday.

#240 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:23 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone
emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 51
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. The CYCLONE WARNING between
PORT ROPER and CAPE SHIELD, including ALYANGULA, has been cancelled.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between GOULBURN
ISLAND and CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE ISLAND.

At 2 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 200
kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy, and 330 kilometres east of Elcho Island,
moving northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should maintain its
current intensity as it moves towards the west northwest during today.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY, from early this morning. GALES are
expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour
in this area from later this morning. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone
may extend west as far as GOULBURN ISLAND later today or early on Monday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour may approach the northern Arnhem Land coast later today or
on Monday.

GALES may extend further west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE
ISLAND, during Monday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 2 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.8 degrees South 138.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 10 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues between CAPE SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE
ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

THE BEAST CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER TO LAND.

Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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