Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I place the center at 37 west.

[jlauderdal]

Up to now this season has been a dud. It's been a season to contradict the global warming theory with. Not much so far, and GFS was showing not much in the next couple of weeks...

WAIT!

The 2006 Aug 6 18Z run has brought back the Great 2006 Cape Verde Storm again! It still goes fish, but it comes closer to the East Coast than previous runs have. Not only that, but more and more storms get generated. At 384 Hours, 2006 Aug 22 1800 Z, it shows at least four, and possibly five, tropical systems. Two are out in the Atlantic, one is in the eastern Caribbean, one is starting to formulate off the coast of Africa, and there may be one hugging the Nicaragua coast. Maybe the active season has yet to come. 2004's record-setting season did not start in earnest until August 13.

So, now it's time to start a new this-season-is-a-dud- thread

they should just sticky a season dud thread and then all the dud lovers can post to their hearts delight

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 062333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 35.8 275./14.0
6 11.7 36.3 273./ 5.5
12 11.7 37.4 272./10.2
18 12.0 38.2 288./ 8.7
24 12.2 39.2 285./ 9.4
30 12.3 40.1 276./ 9.3
36 12.3 41.4 269./12.2
42 12.4 42.8 274./14.5
48 12.3 44.0 265./11.8
54 12.1 45.5 264./14.1
60 12.0 47.2 264./17.0
66 11.7 49.2 263./19.0
72 11.4 50.6 259./14.6
78 11.3 52.1 264./14.9
84 11.4 53.7 273./15.0
90 11.7 54.8 287./11.3
96 12.0 56.3 279./15.5
102 12.0 58.1 270./17.2
108 12.1 59.6 273./14.9
114 12.4 61.2 284./16.5
120 12.8 61.8 299./ 6.3
126 12.5 63.5 261./16.7


Oh,now the 18z GFDL changed from the prior runs and now is Lesser Antilles bound.

[jlauderdal]

WHXX04 KWBC 062333
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 35.8 275./14.0
6 11.7 36.3 273./ 5.5
12 11.7 37.4 272./10.2
18 12.0 38.2 288./ 8.7
24 12.2 39.2 285./ 9.4
30 12.3 40.1 276./ 9.3
36 12.3 41.4 269./12.2
42 12.4 42.8 274./14.5
48 12.3 44.0 265./11.8
54 12.1 45.5 264./14.1
60 12.0 47.2 264./17.0
66 11.7 49.2 263./19.0
72 11.4 50.6 259./14.6
78 11.3 52.1 264./14.9
84 11.4 53.7 273./15.0
90 11.7 54.8 287./11.3
96 12.0 56.3 279./15.5
102 12.0 58.1 270./17.2
108 12.1 59.6 273./14.9
114 12.4 61.2 284./16.5
120 12.8 61.8 299./ 6.3
126 12.5 63.5 261./16.7


Oh,now the 18z GFDL changed from the prior runs and now is Lesser Antilles bound.

no surprise since its such a weak system, we know how models do with weak systems, weak system=weak results

[JonathanBelles]

that brings it into venezuela

[hcane27]

it will not make it .... too much easterly shear ... ULL dropping south along 50W should finish the job.

[mike815]

WRONG and the runs will change it may go out to sea u make it sound like it is going inro the carabbean because of one model run it will change

[mvtrucking]

Models 91L

[caneman]

it will not make it .... too much easterly shear ... ULL dropping south along 50W should finish the job.

Even if it did drop that far South, which I doublt, this could wait to devlop until after 50W.

[ROCK]

it will not make it .... too much easterly shear ... ULL dropping south along 50W should finish the job.

what? The ULL is looks to be slowing its southward progression while 91L looks to be gaining speed. Shear is likely (when isn't it this season) but I don't see another Chris scenario with this one......

[curtadams]

The quickscat does should a large, elongated, closed LLC. N winds at 11 N 46W, W at 8N 41W, S at 11N35W, and E 12N 39W. NW, SW, NE, and SE are all at appropriate places too. Very large but closed. Within the center winds are apparently Ely (quickscat doesn't have a directional bias with rain contamination, does it?) so IMO the convection is drawing LL air from throughout the low. I agree with Matt that there's a distinct CCW circ on low clouds on IR which is suggestive by itself and pretty conclusive in conjuction with the quickscat. So, it looks to be live and active. The weakening is probably coming from mid-level shear http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html just like Chris's decapition. There's enough shear to keep it down but it doesn't seem to be in a large area and if the mid shear slips away it could strenghten rapidly.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 070009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...



A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW TRAILS THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-41W.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, based on those latest model plots, so much for this being a fish storm(if it develops). I knew thet GDFL was on crack. I guess it finally noticed it too. .... I just didn't see the recurvature that the GDFL was seeing......

[colbroe]

New tropical wave is introduced along 19w S of 20n moving W at
10 kt. Wave placement is based on upper air time section
analysis... hovmoller diagram...satellite imagery...and surface
observations. A 1009 mb low is on the wave axis at 13n19w.
Isolated moderate convection is from 6n-16n between 16w-25w.
A tropical wave is along 40w/41w south of 16n moving west at
around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low trails the wave axis near 12n35w.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10n-13n
between 38w-41w.

[mike815]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW TRAILS THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-41W.

[mike815]

OH DARN IT AGAIN YALL MY HERO GOT THIS COVERED THANKS FLORIDAWX

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I personally think if it goes that far South the shear stands a good chance of tearing it to shreds. If however it can go either through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, or even head North of the Islands, it will be our next named storm. Just my two cents.

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060807 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060807 0000 060807 1200 060808 0000 060808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 36.7W 12.5N 38.8W 13.2N 41.2W 13.6N 44.0W
BAMM 11.7N 36.7W 12.4N 39.0W 12.8N 41.7W 12.9N 44.9W
A98E 11.7N 36.7W 12.0N 39.4W 12.5N 42.1W 13.1N 44.9W
LBAR 11.7N 36.7W 12.3N 39.4W 13.1N 42.0W 13.8N 44.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060809 0000 060810 0000 060811 0000 060812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 47.0W 14.0N 53.3W 15.1N 59.2W 16.4N 63.1W
BAMM 12.8N 48.4W 12.7N 55.6W 13.6N 62.7W 15.0N 69.2W
A98E 13.5N 47.7W 14.6N 53.1W 15.7N 58.1W 16.7N 61.8W
LBAR 14.2N 47.3W 14.2N 52.7W 14.2N 57.5W 13.6N 60.2W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 38KTS 48KTS 52KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 36.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 31.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Run of the Tropical Models.Graphic shortly.

[mike815]

awesome hero (oops crap i mean floridawx) edited i like that image very much well done. so u have anything new about the system