Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

If this upper level low does move southward and into the NW caribbean. Upper Level winds will be unfavorable for cyclone formation.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ABOUT THE AXIS. A LOW-MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
STILL EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. DESPITE ITS
STRUCTURE...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND CONFINED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 47W-51W.



From 8 PM Discussion.

[ROCK]

If this upper level low does move southward and into the NW caribbean. Upper Level winds will be unfavorable for cyclone formation.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

ULL north of Hisp moving south? I believe thats what I am seeing though it looks to weakening some.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.1W 10.5N 53.0W 10.7N 54.7W
BAMM 9.8N 48.7W 10.3N 51.1W 10.9N 53.2W 11.4N 55.1W
A98E 9.8N 48.7W 10.1N 51.9W 10.5N 54.9W 11.1N 57.5W
LBAR 9.8N 48.7W 10.2N 51.9W 10.8N 55.0W 11.3N 58.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.2W 12.0N 58.8W 13.3N 61.6W 14.4N 64.7W
BAMM 12.2N 56.8W 14.1N 59.4W 15.8N 62.3W 17.0N 65.7W
A98E 11.5N 59.8W 12.8N 63.8W 14.2N 67.4W 16.0N 71.5W
LBAR 11.7N 61.3W 13.2N 66.6W 14.6N 70.5W 16.9N 72.1W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 49KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 48.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




00:00z Models for 97L.

[SWFLA_CANE]

This invest looks poor...no convection

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know about a mid-level swirl near 10.5?

I see a more robust swirl near 47w 9n moving west very slowly.

[GeneratorPower]

I see some convection around 10N 49W with some cold cloud tops and a bit of turning.

[tropicsgal05]

I was just watching the tropical update with Dr. Lyon's on the weather channel, he mentioned this low moving into the caribbean where condition's will be more favorable and then into the GOM.

[MGC]

The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

944
ABNT20 KNHC 230229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[caneman]

The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC

Carew to up those percentages now

[cycloneye]

I better watch more closely this here.

[HurricaneHunter914]

HOLY COW! In less than a day this became an Invest and in less than a day the NHC mention possible TD formation.

[Brent]

Ernesto?

[ROCK]

The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC

5-10 knots of shear is not that bad currently with most of GOM showing a decreasing shear tendency over the next 24hrs. That ULL over Mexico will be long gone by the time anything enters the GOM. But since we are giving percentages I will play.....I give 45% of becoming a named system but not until it get in the carib.....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[ROCK]

The ULL north of Hispaniola appears to be opening up. Still looks to be a good bit of shear over the Lesser Antilles, WCAB and GOM. This disturbance don't look all that great this evening. I give the probability of becoming a named system at less than 25%.....MGC

5-10 knots of shear is not that bad currently with most of GOM showing a decreasing shear tendency over the next 24hrs. That ULL over Mexico will be long gone by the time anything enters the GOM. But since we are giving percentages I will play.....I give 45% of becoming a named system but not until it get in the carib.....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

man, and I posted before the update....I am getting the hang of this weather stuff...

[Sanibel]

Has a loose circulation but is too dry. Last year taught us not to give up on waves that look good and die down.

[jasons2k]

Hey Rock, you got it. For us, this is the one to watch IMO.

[Cyclenall]

944
ABNT20 KNHC 230229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVING ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I don't see the NHC saying it's appears favorable for a depression to form very often this season in the TWO's. They must think it has a good chance at forming.