T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Weatherfreak000]

When I see things like this I look for the general consensus of the models, not the individuals. And the general consenus seems to be right on par with the NHC track.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that more of a consensus or what?

haha! that 12Z GFDL is probably one of the funniest things I have ever seen. This just goes to show how that GFS run is affecting models run from it.

[Portastorm]

Yeah well, everyone thought USC would beat Texas last year in the Rose Bowl ... that was a consensus as well ... and look what happened. (Ahem).

[Hurrilurker]

Hey, I just wondered when they expect this storm to hit if it does hit the NCGC? I work for an institution for kids with mental retardation, and we are required to evacuate 48 hrs in advance. Derek's forecast on the "Tropical Analysis" forum has Ernie just below LA coast on Wednesday at 8am, so that would mean we would have to leave Monday (meaning I need to call everyone and put them on alert tomorrow). Hence, why I am asking this question...

Well the NHC shows it a good 5 latitudes south of the coast by 8am Thursday. I would definitely wait a day or two before making such a big decision, it looks like you have the time. A lot can change in the next few days, just continue to pay close attention, obviously. Now please note that I am not an expert of any kind, but those at the NHC are, and it looks like landfall probably won't occur until Thurday night at the earliest, and in the most recent discussion they observed that the storm's speed is slowing a bit, which might extend the time even more in the future if the trend continues. Good luck!

[ROCK]

Porta, that is the best advice I have seen after reading 50+ pages in the last 18 hrs......good post and I agree.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah well, everyone thought USC would beat Texas last year in the Rose Bowl ... that was a consensus as well ... and look what happened. (Ahem).

good point you make there.

[AJC3]

I find the 12z GFS highly laughable and feel it should be discounted. All one has to do is take a look at how the model handles the 850mb vort max. It handles it fine for the first 42hrs or so, then inexplicably turns it north across eastern Cuba right into the ridge.

I won't argue against a possible more east track, but find this ridiculous. People should look at this run with extreme caution.

Yeah...been trying to get this point across in the 12Z GFS thread...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88799

[Brent]

Hey, I just wondered when they expect this storm to hit if it does hit the NCGC? I work for an institution for kids with mental retardation, and we are required to evacuate 48 hrs in advance. Derek's forecast on the "Tropical Analysis" forum has Ernie just below LA coast on Wednesday at 8am, so that would mean we would have to leave Monday (meaning I need to call everyone and put them on alert tomorrow). Hence, why I am asking this question...

I defintely wouldn't worry too much yet, just watch it. Landfall looks to be not til Thursday(and maybe Thursday Night or even Early Friday).

[Derek Ortt]

of course ther eis a 2 p.m. update

there are watches and warnings

As for the GFS, well, its Good For S___ as it is almost always. However, this one is even more rediculous than its Katrina to Myrtle SC forecast last year.

This is as laughable as Ivan passing east of Miami

[Brent]

of course ther eis a 2 p.m. update

there are watches and warnings

As for the GFS, well, its Good For S___ as it is almost always. However, this one is even more rediculous than its Katrina to Myrtle SC forecast last year.

This is as laughable as Ivan passing east of Miami

HAHA!

[wxman57]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif[


When I see things like this I look for the general consensus of the models, not the individuals. And the general consenus seems to be right on par with the NHC track.

Those are mostly "junk models" west of the NHC track - climo, extrapolated, BAMs. Dynamic models are all east of NHC.

[Air Force Met]

I find the 12z GFS highly laughable and feel it should be discounted. All one has to do is take a look at how the model handles the 850mb vort max. It handles it fine for the first 42hrs or so, then inexplicably turns it north across eastern Cuba right into the ridge.

I won't argue against a possible more east track, but find this ridiculous. People should look at this run with extreme caution.

And that is what I am seeing. Even with the continued WNW motion...it should naturally want to turn more westward as it approaches the ridge axis. Right now it is keeping a 285 and the ridge to the north isn't as strong as what will be there in 72 hours.

So...in 72 hours...with a stronger ridge...why will it move more into it? That doesn't make sense to me. I would think it would bump more into the ridge and tend west for a while then round the ridge...rather than plow into it.

[KatDaddy]

There is one model that show what Jeff Master's was talking about. Where Ernesto stalls in the N GOM and then begins drifting W toward Texas. Talk about some far-fetched possibilties.

[Derek Ortt]

heading seems to be 285 at the most, the GFDL is out to lunch turning this to the NW immediately

[skysummit]

I see we have disagreements between the pro mets

[Dean4Storms]

Ok, eating lunch at my desk now. Made a new McICAS image. I think I may see an LLC where I put the "X".. Doesn't look like much more than a small eddy moving to the west ahead of the convection, though. That could be the lowest pressure area.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto38.gif

It would have alot tighter spin than that wxman, I think the center is back further ENE near the deeper convection.

[ALhurricane]

I find the 12z GFS highly laughable and feel it should be discounted. All one has to do is take a look at how the model handles the 850mb vort max. It handles it fine for the first 42hrs or so, then inexplicably turns it north across eastern Cuba right into the ridge.

I won't argue against a possible more east track, but find this ridiculous. People should look at this run with extreme caution.

And that is what I am seeing. Even with the continued WNW motion...it should naturally want to turn more westward as it approaches the ridge axis. Right now it is keeping a 285 and the ridge to the north isn't as strong as what will be there in 72 hours.

So...in 72 hours...with a stronger ridge...why will it move more into it? That doesn't make sense to me. I would think it would bump more into the ridge and tend west for a while then round the ridge...rather than plow into it.

I am having horrible flashbacks to Frances 2004. Quite possibly one of the most ridiculous GFS forecasts I have ever seen. Mike Watkins can tell you about the rant I made on his show about it.

[canegrl04]

The NHC track has always been the most reliable for projected lanfall.I believe in it more than the others.Especially GFS

[wxman57]

of course ther eis a 2 p.m. update

As for the GFS, well, its Good For S___ as it is almost always. However, this one is even more ridiculous than its Katrina to Myrtle SC forecast last year.

This is as laughable as Ivan passing east of Miami

Good for S..ubtropical storms? That what you meant, Derek?

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS does not make sense and that is a given.