TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

ROCK · #221 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:43 pm

The small blob moving to the SW is the center????? What??? I don't believe that...

#222 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:45 pm

I have no idea how they get WNW movement.

Bgator · #223 Postby **Bgator** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:46 pm

THough the NHC has much more knowledge than me, i dont see a WNW motion at all, they said themselves though that it isnt easy finding a center right now though, i think it is a bit more south, and i cannot they shifter the track more east...!

Josephine96 · #224 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:46 pm

WNW doesn't make sense to me either.. It's going much more west than north..

Stratosphere747 · #225 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:46 pm

ROCK wrote:The small blob moving to the SW is the center????? What??? I don't believe that...

Use SW....

Though again the disco is not certain where the dominant center is..

CalmBeforeStorm · #226 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:47 pm

ROCK wrote:The small blob moving to the SW is the center????? What??? I don't believe that...

When you look at a vapor loop and see the strong SW shear from that ULL you will believe it.

#227 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:47 pm

honestly my computer screen must be tilted because it is 270 if not like 260. No way it is WNW...just like another member said, just connect the dots today - nearly due west....

boca · #228 Postby **boca** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:48 pm

If I lived in the Outer Banks I would keep an eye on Florence since the models are trending more eastward. In my opinion I don't feel this has Florida wriiten on it right now.

Josephine96 · #229 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:49 pm

I don't understand the eastward shift either.. Maybe this is the 2nd storm in a row that the NHC is having real issues with..

ROCK · #230 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:I have no idea how they get WNW movement.

Exactly....I am dumbfounded. If the center is the small blob of convection to the SW of the main convection (which I think is a second center btw) it has been moving a tad south of due west all day......

#231 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:50 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I have no idea how they get WNW movement.

Exactly....I am dumbfounded. If the center is the small blob of convection to the SW of the main convection (which I think is a second center btw) it has been moving a tad south of due west all day......

well maybe they keep hoping for a WNW movement - the more west it goes the more the entire forecast package is thrown out....the center is near the blob to the SW and that is clearly NOT moving WNW....(even taking shear into the calculations)

ConvergenceZone · #232 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:51 pm

wow, even if this misses the US, looks like it's still going to get really reallly close to it, and that's providing the models don't shift west again in which it won't miss the US....

Stratosphere747 · #233 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:51 pm

The problem is that the NHC is not telling you a due west movement is occurring. Yet they write in the disco about the uncertainties of the exact center location..

Not sure why this is hard to comprehend...

#234 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:52 pm

so I am not the only one that is dumbfounded - well I guess it should begin to move WNW at some point here but right now it is still a bit disorganized so it is doing weird things....

Josephine96 · #235 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:53 pm

I think this may have Floyd written all over it. If it doesn't hit the Fla coast.. its gonna get dangerously close.. then make a quick jerk to the north.. Just my 2 cents.

Damar91 · #236 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:54 pm

If you go back and look at the previous coordinates since Florence was a depression, it is no further North than when it was a depression, but it is 4.0 degrees west. WNW? I don't think so.

BensonTCwatcher · #237 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:55 pm

Hmmm, I see a bit of educated gambling going on based on the ULL receding and not on the real motion. The statement about the hard to find center is true. I woudl put it close the nhc point here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

But the motion still looks west now, but by the time the shear moves off and the convection reaches dirunal max, the storm will drop some of the egg shaped center as the convetion moves over the center and thus pull up a bit onto the next forecast point.

OR NOT then they shift track back west, and west again at 0500, then they move incrementaly either way...

Looks about 280 at best to me...we shall see in the morning..

Bgator · #238 Postby **Bgator** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 pm

IMO i like stewarts discussions more, alot more detailed...They didnt explain to much in the 11pm discussions, yes it did help some, and who is brown, never heard of him...

ROCK · #239 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 pm

The dominant center moved up under that convection this afternoon...Sat here and watched it. Yes, I know its sheared given the ULL / trof. I see that. What I am saying is if the NHC is saying the center is the blob off to the SW it has not been moving wnw but more like a tad south of west. And then theres the whole I can't believe they picked that as the center thing since it moved up under the convection and exploded a few hours ago. You don't get that rapid deepening unless the LLC is vertically stacked......

rant over......sorry guys...

#240 Postby **Fego** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 pm

May be the center is elongated from NE to SW. May be I'm suffering a visual desease newly called "florencitis agudis". Just kidding.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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