SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Extremeweatherguy]

I also just looked at the 18Z GFS surface temperatures and WOW! If they verfiy then we will be looking at the coldest air in years!

Here are the numbers for IAH:

Thursday morning = 65F

Thursday afternoon = 59F

Thursday evening = 45F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 32F

Friday afternoon = 31F <<yeah, that's right...it is showing freezing temperatures ALL DAY!

Friday evening = 31F <<with sleet and snow showers.
Saturday morning (daybreak) = 21F <<It also shows as cold as 19F at Hooks airport in Tomball!

Saturday afternoon = 42F

I do not like this downward temperature trend at all! But if the 0Z continues it, then "Houston, we may have a problem". Highs near freezing and lows in the teen/low twenties are just way too cold for me.

[double D]

I think those numbers are probably a little too cool but this is some serious cold air that is on the way. Come this Thursday, there is going to be a lot of people shocked and unprepared by this cold air, especially if local mets don't start to warn people soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am really anxious to see the 00Z models and 0Z GFS MOS guidance. Since the Houston NWS relies heavily on the MOS, it should give us a good idea of what the overnight temperature forecast should be for next week. Hopefully the (usually) better overnight shift will lower temps. a bit.

[double D]

This is a special weather statement from the Lubbock NWS. I know this is northwest Texas but it gives a good indication of what will be headed our way!

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up cooler than thier forecasting.

POLAR AIR TO INVADE WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO WEST TEXAS.
AFTER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH 40S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. BITING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
IN THE 30S. A DISTURBANCE PASSING THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE COLDEST
READINGS MAY OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COULD
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO THE THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON AND COULD CAUSE FREEZE DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED PIPES...MOTOR
VEHICLES NOT PROPERLY WINTERIZED...EXPOSED PETS AND LIVESTOCK...
AND ANY REMAINING TENDER VEGETATION.

$$

[weatherrabbit_tx]

if this high pressure coming down is close to rivaling the dec. '89 outbreak, ouch! even the valley might not escape this one......so much for the citrus over there, just a thought

[Portastorm]

if this high pressure coming down is close to rivaling the dec. '89 outbreak, ouch! even the valley might not escape this one......so much for the citrus over there, just a thought

I don't think this will rival the December 1989 outbreak. No way! That was a historic outbreak and this one, while it looks pretty darn cold, isn't close to that one.

[TexasSam]

if this high pressure coming down is close to rivaling the dec. '89 outbreak, ouch! even the valley might not escape this one......so much for the citrus over there, just a thought

I don't think this will rival the December 1989 outbreak. No way! That was a historic outbreak and this one, while it looks pretty darn cold, isn't close to that one.

One thing I have learned about the weather here in Houston, is never say never. I remember 1989 and the rolling blackouts...
I guess sometime soon we'll be doing this chat in the Winter Weather area?

[Extremeweatherguy]

if this high pressure coming down is close to rivaling the dec. '89 outbreak, ouch! even the valley might not escape this one......so much for the citrus over there, just a thought

I don't think this will rival the December 1989 outbreak. No way! That was a historic outbreak and this one, while it looks pretty darn cold, isn't close to that one.

the strength of the cold likely will not, but the strength of the high pressure will. If the high is over 1050mb (like the GFS is indicating) then it will be very close to rivaling the 1989 high (which I believe was 1056mb). Already the high up in western canada is at about 1050mb.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are some interesting facts:

-The last time IAH hit 29F was Dec. 27th, 2004.

-The last time IAH hit 27F was March 3rd, 2002.

-The last time IAH fell below 25F was March 4th, 2002.

-The last time IAH hit the teens was in 1996.

Next weeks cold outbreak will likely be the coldest in over 4 years...and if we fall below 20F (which is not currently expected), then it will be the coldest in 10 years.

[JenBayles]

DIE MOSQUITOES! DIE!!!

Whew! Glad I got that out of my system right before bedtime.

Seriously though, if it weren't for this site, (I'm no good at reading the model data without translation) I would have no clue what's headed our way. I actually gave my family and friends a "bear watch" and reminder to check pipe insulation and any other needed cold-snap chores - like stocking up the woodpile maybe? Much easier to do it in our balmy weather than waiting until it's freezing with a northwest gale blowing. How much you wanna bet none of them listens?

[double D]

Here are some interesting facts:

-The last time IAH hit 29F was Dec. 27th, 2004.

-The last time IAH hit 27F was March 3rd, 2002.

-The last time IAH fell below 25F was March 4th, 2002.

-The last time IAH hit the teens was in 1996.

Next weeks cold outbreak will likely be the coldest in over 4 years...and if we fall below 20F (which is not currently expected), then it will be the coldest in 10 years.

WOW! Pretty impressive to see those mid 20's in March.

[JenBayles]

double D - I remember that one well. By the first week in March, I'm watching some of the earlier trees leaf out, the azaleas about to bust open, and new growth on just about everything else. That little late surprise caused a lot of plant damage in this area, including Houston's Azalea Trail festival. I hate when that happens!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

if this high pressure coming down is close to rivaling the dec. '89 outbreak, ouch! even the valley might not escape this one......so much for the citrus over there, just a thought

Well the thing that made the 1989 and before that the 1983 freeze historic was the whole second half of the month of December was cold for the most part, thus the ground temps were cooler which did not absorb as much cold as this upcoming snap will. Plus the water temps on the coast were probably lower which at this time they are still in the 70's. Both fronts that hit the valley (I lived down there at the time) were the straws that broke the camals backs.

Dec 1989 Temps for Corpus

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/climate/arc ... 98912.html


The 1983 freeze happened in middle of the month long period of cooler to cold temps that carried over to January 1984 which was quite below normal too. NWS Brownsville does not have historic records for some reason on their site at this time, but these were the temps in Corpus for Dec 1983 and Jan 1984

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/climate/arc ... 98312.html


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/climate/arc ... 98401.html

If this front happend later in December or early January coming over snow pack over the plains and the Rockies, then I would really be worried in the RGV. As the old saying goes that nothing but barbed wire in the Panhandle could stop the cold air from taking a direct shot at South Texas

[double D]

And the special weather statements keep coming in. This is the San Antonio/Austin NWS. I guess the cold is now a reality and we need to start preparing for it.
...COLD WEATHER COMING LATE NEXT WEEK...

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EARLIER THIS
MONTH 2 STRONG COLD FRONTS CAME TO THE AREA...ONE THE NIGHT OF
NOVEMBER 10TH...AND THE SECOND THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING OF
NOVEMBER 14TH/15TH. A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOW AND MID 80S.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH THURSDAY WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE COLD AIR THURSDAY.

A FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST LOWS SINCE FEBRUARY
OF THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LATE NOVEMBER/EARLY DECEMBER
2006 COLD OUTBREAK.
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PREPARATION TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS...
PIPES...LIVESTOCK...AND ANY OTHER PROPERTY AFFECTED BY THE COLD
IS ADVISED.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THESE EVOLVING LATE NOVEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER OF 2006 WEATHER
PATTERNS.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE AND FIRST FREEZE OF THE
YEAR FOR SELECTED AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 1950
TO 2006 IS LISTED BELOW.

AVERAGE FIRST AND LAST DATE OF FREEZES 1950 TO 2006

LOCATION AVERAGE LAST AVERAGE FIRST
FREEZE FREEZE

AUSTIN MABRY FEB 24 DEC 2

AUSTIN BERGSTROM MAR 6 NOV 25

BLANCO MAR 21 NOV 10

BOERNE MAR 22 NOV 11

CARRIZO SPRINGS FEB 19 NOV 30

DEL RIO FEB 21 DEC 1

EAGLE PASS FEB 18 DEC 5

GONZALES FEB 28 NOV 30

JOHNSON CITY MAR 20 NOV 13

NEW BRAUNFELS MAR 8 NOV 24

ROCKSPRINGS MAR 18 NOV 19

SAN MARCOS MAR 6 NOV 22

SAN ANTONIO MAR 1 NOV 25

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest from the 0Z GFS:

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 66F

Thursday afternoon = 42F

Thursday evening = 34F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 27F

Friday afternoon = 45F

Friday evening = 35F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 32F

The 0Z GFS does indicate that this is a shallow airmass though, because it (unlike other runs) keeps the 850mb temps. fairly warm over Houston. It seems like it may be having problems, however, because it also speeds the cold air out of here much faster than previous runs and it completely disintegrates the high pressure (from about 1050mb down to below 1025mb) within a day or two. This model run should probably be thrown out for now as it looks unrealistic given the current strength of the high and the strength of the cold up in western Canada. It also makes no sense that the 18Z shows 21F for Friday night while the 0Z shows us barely reaching 32F. I guess we will still have to wait a bit more for some consistancy...

One thing that is interesting though is that the 0Z GFS still shows wintery precipitation for Friday morning (sleet mixed with snow). However, since the overall run seems to be having issues, I will still not buy into this yet.

[vbhoutex]

It looks like it ia about time to start this up in the Winter weather forum. Not trying to shut this off, but we are definitely moving into winter weather now.

Most oF the local OCMs are now calling for this to happen also, thought with varying degrees of intensity(surprise, surprise! NOt!)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just started a new thread in the winter weather section. I will be posting the latest on the arctic blast there from now on..

[JenBayles]

Killjoy! I like coming to this thread.

[jasons2k]

Killjoy! I like coming to this thread.

Me2

[Extremeweatherguy]

you can still use this thread for severe weather and other SE Texas topics. The other thread will just be for winter weather.