Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

double D · #221 Postby **double D** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 3:32 pm

Well the 12z GFS is showing snow again for parts of Texas on Christmas day. It is sure fun to watch these runs of the GFS before they show us back in the 70's for Christmas. :lol:

Seriously though, I'm beginning to feel more confident that we will see a pretty good cool down around Christmas. Now if it is going to snow remains to be seen. I just hope this time that southeast Texas will share this time around. :wink:

weatherrabbit_tx · #222 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 3:49 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Christmas 2004. What memories indeed. The only Christmas to date where my kids were less interested in their presents.

Good link of graphs, radar and sattelite shots as well as pics from the NWS Corpus Christi website found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/stories/Chr ... _2004.html

Some of pics from that event.

Downtown Corpus
http://www-2.kristv.com/coppermine/albu ... %20028.jpg

Kingsville
http://www.tamuk.edu/news/2005/january/ ... ges/19.jpg

The most amazing pictures have to be the ones in Victoria though:

A snowfall like that just doesn't even seem possible this far south! It is truly a crazy sight.

The even more amazing thing is that Houston received nearly 2-times that amount back in 1895 (under an even colder airmass). Now THAT would have been something to see! I couldn't even imagine the reaction of this place if a similar situation happened today. People would be, for the most part, clueless on what to do. And if it hit during a workday, mass panic and chaos would likely ensue. Hard to believe that it actually has happened before.

share some more snow pics from palacios area which is on the coast in between houston-galveston and corpus, this is a link to the palacios beacon online.
http://www.palaciosbeacon.com/home/feat ... pixs.shtml

Janie2006 · #223 Postby **Janie2006** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:33 pm

Its a real pity that I can't find any pictures of the December 1963 snowstorm along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. On Decenber 30-31 of that year, Gulfport got 7 inches of snow. On the beach. Needless to say, it was the "snowstorm" of the century for Gulfport.

Extremeweatherguy · #224 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:56 pm

JB said that there is a strong chance that this will be the 3rd El Nino in a row where there was snow "somewhere" on the ground in Texas within a few days of Christmas.

The last two were...

-2004 (parts of North Texas and south/coastal Texas)
-2002 (North Texas)

He will probably be right too. If the models are anywhere near correct, then there is a good chance that one of the three colder/wetter periods coming between next week and Christmas week will feature snow in Texas...somewhere. (and likely all 3). It will be interesting to see just how far that threat gets though.

Yankeegirl · #225 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:21 pm

Bring it on!!

KatDaddy · #226 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:48 pm

I will believe it when I see it again.

Kelarie · #227 Postby **Kelarie** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:22 pm

Dear Santa,

I have been a really good girl. All I really want for Christmas is snow (or ice). The models are kinda hinting at this. Could you make a good girls Christmas wish come true?

Love and kisses,

Kel

#228 Postby **Tireman4** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:29 pm

Ok. If I were Santa, there is no way I could turn that one down. I think that should work Kelarie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

weatherrabbit_tx · #229 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:33 pm

I second that, it would be nice to see a bit snow in and around christmas, we shall see how it pans out....... :Bcool:

JenBayles · #230 Postby **JenBayles** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:35 pm

<sings to self> Santa baby, put some snowflakes under the tree, for me....

:lol:

#231 Postby **Tireman4** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:38 pm

Ok, if you were wishing for snow. How much would you wish for? Do you have an amount in mind?

For funzies ....lol

JenBayles · #232 Postby **JenBayles** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:43 pm

Oh, just a nice covering of an inch or so would do me just fine. As it stands, I think it'll just be in my dreams - or Extreme's - he can dream big enough for us all I think. :cheesy:

(EWG - y'know I'm just razzing you, right?!)

Johnny · #233 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:56 pm

Not surprised with what JB said with the upcoming cold and with El Nino starting to crank. I can't believe we are actually even talking about this. lol What does the latest run of the GFS look like as far as cold and precip. during this time period?

PTrackerLA · #234 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:02 pm

It's been very dry here since the deluges of October. Still waiting for El Nino to really show up around here and I would like for winter to come back too. It's going to be near 80 this weekend

.

double D · #235 Postby **double D** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:07 pm

Johnny wrote:Not surprised with what JB said with the upcoming cold and with El Nino starting to crank. I can't believe we are actually even talking about this. lol What does the latest run of the GFS look like as far as cold and precip. during this time period?

Believe it or not the 18z is still showing snow for parts of Texas around Christmas. While I don't think there will be snow (reverse psychology) for us in Texas, it is amazing that the GFS has been consistent with it's runs.

Watch the GFS tease us with snow and when we think it might be a real possibility, then bang it will show 70's and 80's and sunny skies and then in the 10+ day it will show another snowstorm for Texas. :roll:

AggieSpirit · #236 Postby **AggieSpirit** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:37 pm

Here is a good rule of thumb.... if they predict flurries, we will get accumulating snow. If they predict accumulating snow, we get flurries.

Even Harold Taft could not get it right during these hard to predict winter weather events

Extremeweatherguy · #237 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:43 pm

CPC day 8-14 outlook:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif - temps.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif - precip.

Cooler than normal and wetter than normal for much of TX.

Extremeweatherguy · #238 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:52 pm

00Z GFS is showing next week getting interesting (even before Christmas)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
^^Rainy Wednesday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^A state divided Wednesday evening. Cold and ice/snow in some parts and mild with rain and storms in others.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Cold Thursday morning with wintery precip. in parts of the state^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Cold 850mb temps. (below 0C) by Thursday evening all the way to Houston^^

Extremeweatherguy · #239 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:54 pm

It then shows an interesting Christmas eve as well...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Cold atmosphere with precip. right off the coast. If this precip. happens to be inland instead of to our east, then it would possibly be snow/ice^^

#240 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 6:45 am

Just a quick post for me this morning as time is limited ... morning ensemble runs as well as operational GFS and Euro all show next week's event to be ON. Below to much-below normal temps will definitely return by the middle of next week along with a precipitation threat.

For now, still looks like the best bet for wintry precip will occur northwest of a San Angelo-Waco-Tyler line (like last time). Of course this can -- and probably will -- change.

Regardless, enjoy the respite and get your firewood ready for next week!

Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

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