Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[boca]

I'm up for constructive criticism but maybe other people take things out of context. I have no issues with you I like reading your posts. I'm the first one that can use feedback on weather events so I can get knowledge from you and others.

[Stratosphere747]

Sometimes I feel its not worth posting a forecast due to whats happening here. Its just a posters prediction thats it.

It's one thing to post a forecast, and another to be so adamant about it verifying - thus the open questioning of his forecast.

For now there is nothing out there, and I'm going by what he is describing. Still plenty of time though and curios to see how it plays out.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm up for constructive criticism but maybe other people take things out of context. I have no issues with you I like reading your posts. I'm the first one that can use feedback on weather events so I can get knowledge from you and others.

cool ok . .its settled.. hI my name is Aric Dunn.. I like the Tropics.. !!:)

[KWT]

Well he said between the 13-16th, so its best we wait till the 17th surely to see if his forecast was even close. While his Barry forecast was pretty decent, anyone can fluke out once and sometimes even twice, BB may be the same, though I'd like to know about his past predictions because I could be wrong withwhat I just said.

[windstorm99]

Alot of sinking air in place across the gulf with ULL'S causeing unfavorable upper level winds makeing it a pretty good bet we wont be seeing anything out there anytime soon.The disturbance to the south of cuba continues to get sheared by the ULL close by so any development in my opinion seems rather low right now.Hopfully we can get some of that rain across south florida but even that is not looking to likely at the present time.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[Stormcenter]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

Everyone is going to be right once and awhile. It's like picking the right lotto numbers. I'm sorry but
getting something right once doesn't all of the sudden make you an "expert".

[HouTXmetro]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

Everyone is going to be right once and awhile. It's like picking the right lotto numbers. I'm sorry but
getting something right once doesn't all of the sudden make you an "expert".

Your statement insinuates that there is no scientific reasoning involved in his forecasting when in fact there is.

[Cryomaniac]

I see no problem with anyone predicting anything, in anyway they see fit as long as they obey the rules.

[BreinLa]

Okay everyone let's get back on topic now.

[Dean4Storms]

I disagreed with BB's forecast early on in this topic and he seemed to not handle someone disagreeing with him all that well. He has his opinion on the weather and we all have ours I guess. But if you are going to post a forecast on pretty much a public forum full of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts be prepared to handle and accept disagreements, it comes with the territory.

His forecast of Barry was being shown at the time on long range runs of the GFS, he took a shot at it being right and it was.

In the end like I said way back at the beginning of this topic, we'll just have to wait and see who is right.

[Cryomaniac]

I disagreed with BB's forecast early on in this topic and he seemed to not handle someone disagreeing with him all that well. He has his opinion on the weather and we all have ours I guess. But if you are going to post a forecast on pretty much a public forum full of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts be prepared to handle and accept disagreements, it comes with the territory.

His forecast of Barry was being shown at the time on long range runs of the GFS, he took a shot at it being right and it was.

In the end like I said way back at the beginning of this topic, we'll just have to wait and see who is right.

I think the point is that someone shouldn't get slated for getting a forecast wrong, whoever they are. As I've said quite a few times, nature does some strange things , quite often.

[Kennethb]

I recall reading this NO AFD from a week or so.

quote="Extremeweatherguy"]Did anyone see this discussion from the New Orleans NWS office earlier today? I just found it posted on another forum and thought I would share it here...

From the N.O NWS


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY DISRUPT SEA BREEZE GENERATION SOMEWHAT. GFS
GENERATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE
DEVELOPED...FRIDAY NEAR WEST CUBA. GFS HAS A KNACK FOR DEVELOPING
SPURIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT PATTERN SORT OF FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST A WAVE AT THAT LATITUDE. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS...BUT
LOCALLY THE RESULT COULD BE A TIGHTENING OF EASTERLY GRADIENT FOR
NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RENEW HIGH TIDE ISSUES IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS

If something did try to form next Friday (the 15th), then that would be within Berwick's timeframe. Might not be in the right location though.[/quote]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I recall reading this NO AFD from a week or so.

quote="Extremeweatherguy"]Did anyone see this discussion from the New Orleans NWS office earlier today? I just found it posted on another forum and thought I would share it here...

From the N.O NWS


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH MAY DISRUPT SEA BREEZE GENERATION SOMEWHAT. GFS
GENERATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE
DEVELOPED...FRIDAY NEAR WEST CUBA. GFS HAS A KNACK FOR DEVELOPING
SPURIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT PATTERN SORT OF FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST A WAVE AT THAT LATITUDE. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS...BUT
LOCALLY THE RESULT COULD BE A TIGHTENING OF EASTERLY GRADIENT FOR
NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RENEW HIGH TIDE ISSUES IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS

If something did try to form next Friday (the 15th), then that would be within Berwick's timeframe. Might not be in the right location though.

wow. You may be right. Seems like the poster on the other forum was trying to trick us. I just checked the N.O. discussions from today and indeed there does not seem to be any record of this statement. I will delete my original post.


update = I just discovered that the discussion actually came from yesterday morning...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get ... n=6&max=10

So it was not a week old, but it wasn't from today either. I would say that it is still close enough that it is somewhat significant.

[Dean4Storms]

I disagreed with BB's forecast early on in this topic and he seemed to not handle someone disagreeing with him all that well. He has his opinion on the weather and we all have ours I guess. But if you are going to post a forecast on pretty much a public forum full of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts be prepared to handle and accept disagreements, it comes with the territory.

His forecast of Barry was being shown at the time on long range runs of the GFS, he took a shot at it being right and it was.

In the end like I said way back at the beginning of this topic, we'll just have to wait and see who is right.

I think the point is that someone shouldn't get slated for getting a forecast wrong, whoever they are. As I've said quite a few times, nature does some strange things , quite often.

Well I didn't "slate" him, just disagreed with him on the upper pattern he called for with the influx of moisture coming up from Belize creating a TC NW of the Yucatan this coming week. His moisture from there didn't verify, his second attempt to find moisture from the UL Trough over the Bahamas sliding west into the Gulf and becoming his energy for Cyclogenesis didn't verify either. On top of that the Longwave trough that reinforced the ridging over the GOM did verify as I stated.
I should also add that I stated the GFS has been indicating the possibility of something getting together in the western Carib and that it might turn NE and cross South Florida, that I did say.

[Air Force Met]

Well I didn't "slate" him, just disagreed with him on the upper pattern he called for with the influx of moisture coming up from Belize creating a TC NW of the Yucatan this coming week. His moisture from there didn't verify, his second attempt to find moisture from the UL Trough over the Bahamas sliding west into the Gulf and becoming his energy for Cyclogenesis didn't verify either. On top of that the Longwave trough that reinforced the ridging over the GOM did verify as I stated.
I should also add that I stated the GFS has been indicating the possibility of something getting together in the western Carib and that it might turn NE and cross South Florida, that I did say.

I also don't think we will see an LLC today from the popcorn showers near the Yucatan....and at the rate it is moving...it will be inland in Mexico by Tuesday. It also looks like the ULL will follow it the whole way providing a nice 30-40 kts of easterly shear the entire time (and continued dry air). So...if this is what we are waiting on to develop (and BB hinted that this might be the feature on page 8)...then we can forget it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'd say we give it another 2-3 weeks for Chantal.

My forecast yesterday for Chantal failed horribly.

But that's okay, cause I'm just an amateur LOL...

[HouTXmetro]

A day late, but we do have showers developing in the area BB predicted.. Now i will be looking for shower persistence and general movement of convection.

[Air Force Met]

A day late, but we do have showers developing in the area BB predicted.. Now i will be looking for shower persistence and general movement of convection.

I thought the prediction was for the 13-16th? What was the prediction for the 9th? I also don't see these isolated showers becoming any factor in this prediction. Three days of movement puts this feature in the EPAC or over Mexico...not in the central GOM.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm not seeing any possibility for Chantal to form now, 93L had been our chance and now it has diminished.


We'll have to wait and see...

[HouTXmetro]

A day late, but we do have showers developing in the area BB predicted.. Now i will be looking for shower persistence and general movement of convection.

I thought the prediction was for the 13-16th? What was the prediction for the 9th? I also don't see these isolated showers becoming any factor in this prediction. Three days of movement puts this feature in the EPAC or over Mexico...not in the central GOM.

No the prediction was for convection to get going first and the actual naming of the sytem would occur between the 13-16.