99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[punkyg]

Guys its gonna be so sad when yall start logging off and then i'm gonna have to start posting pictures of Ex 99L and be all alone, but i bet yall won't log out until 2:30 maybe 3:00am. I'm excited and my father tried to make me go to bed. shame on him he knows i gotta have my tropical weather blogging.

[Recurve]

It's a nice blob and maybe a swirl, but like was said, even if it were the size of texas, no west winds, no closed low, nothing's really happening yet. And it's still fa-lying along. But it has been kinda impressive again tonight.

[Normandy]

Welll.....we found our MLC....and guess where it is?

On the very very southern end of the convection. Pretty much no chance it gets past central america if thats the dominant center.

[superfly]

Well this is certainly one of the best looking waves I've seen. I doubt they'll classify at 5 but rather wait to see if it persists and for daytime to better determine if it has a LLC.

[punkyg]

Man i'm gonna suffer when Ex 99L starts its cross over to epac.

until then i'll be watching.

[Recurve]

Hey, white tops? We getting some really healthy convection here?
And that satellite blob sure seems to have swirled from north to south of the main blob.

[Aric Dunn]

nothing at all really said in the TWD they barely even mentioned it ..

[weatherSnoop]

Where do you see that? I see this system working really hard to develop a center just above 15

[Recurve]

Tops warming a little in last frame, but still...

[Normandy]

Where do you see that? I see this system working really hard to develop a center just above 15

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Run a loop of about 10 frames and look toward the southern end of the big convective burst....the MLC is pretty evident.

[Recurve]

Do this one, it goes farther south:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Normandy]

^That loops shows it even better.

[Recurve]

I'll take a wild-a guess that if there's a center it's between the big blob and the now two little blobs to its west. But until they do a 360 around that point I won't say it very loud.

[weatherSnoop]

I see what you are seeing and thank you for the images. In the last frame I see a lone white dot just above 15. My amature eyes see this system fighting north of the mlc. Any more information will be appreciated and well received.

[punkyg]

Is Ex 99L still moving nw?

[weatherguru18]

At this point I just don't care what happens to it. It ain't commin here. This thing has been the biggest tease. I'm dropping this thing faster than CBS dropped Jimmy the Greek. I'm disgusted. Goodnight/morning...whatever.

[Normandy]

Is Ex 99L still moving nw?

Nope, the MLC im tracking is moving due west with a hint of S motion. Its gonna run straight into Central America so I don't expect development. The only shot this had was to develop an MLC farther north....but who knows this system has tricked us time and time again.

[Jam151]

At this point I just don't care what happens to it. It ain't commin here. This thing has been the biggest tease. I'm dropping this thing faster than CBS dropped Jimmy the Greek. I'm disgusted. Goodnight/morning...whatever.

Well that's gonna happen with 9/10 storms....most don't hit Texas and there weren't any indications that 99L was bound for TX either.

[weatherguru18]

At this point I just don't care what happens to it. It ain't commin here. This thing has been the biggest tease. I'm dropping this thing faster than CBS dropped Jimmy the Greek. I'm disgusted. Goodnight/morning...whatever.

Well that's gonna happen with 9/10 storms....most don't hit Texas and there weren't any indications that 99L was bound for TX either.

Well I know, but you can always hope.

[punkyg]

Is Ex 99L still moving nw?

I think i answer my own question.
I know i can't see a thing, but its focused on Ex 99L so its good enough. it is moving.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html