Long-Term Model Runs

[windstorm99]

18z GFS at 384 hours



Very long range shows at least three potential named systems.Lets see the next runs from GFS and the other global models to see a trend.

All signs form the GFS of active times in the coming weeks but i tend to not put to much stock on 300+hr GFS forcast.

Model skill that far out is very poor.Adrian

[cycloneye]

Remember that the initial stages of what was Dean started in these very long range runs and as the days passed and the runs were rolling,the consistency of the model became remarkable.

[windstorm99]

:uarrow: Remember that the initial stages of what was Dean started in these very long range runs and as the days passed and the runs were rolling,the consistency of the model became remarkable.

Your right luis and as the favorable MJO moves in i think were going to see things pop sometime into mid to late next week.I think theres a good chance come early september we could see things really ramp were we could see 4-7 named systems from early september through mid october.Hopefully steering currents we be on our side.Adrian

[flwxwatcher]

:uarrow: Remember that the initial stages of what was Dean started in these very long range runs and as the days passed and the runs were rolling,the consistency of the model became remarkable.

Luis. your right. The GFS has come along way from where it was a few years ago.. A few years ago the GFS was much like the Canadian is now, spitting out spurious lows. While the details of the 168+ time frame should be taken with a grain of salt . It does look like things should start picking up in the tropics in the coming week or so.

[windstorm99]

Also another thing to keep in mind is a developing La Nina could be the kicker for a very active Oct/Nov.

[Derek Ortt]

It remains a mathematical impossibility to make a prediction this far in advance of such a specific event.

Any success that the GFS had with Dean was merely a blind squirrel finding an acorn

[Stormcenter]

Also another thing to keep in mind is a developing La Nina could be the kicker for a very active Oct/Nov.

I'm sorry maybe I can buy into some early Oct. activity but not any in Nov. that would
affect the U.S. IMO

[windstorm99]

Also another thing to keep in mind is a developing La Nina could be the kicker for a very active Oct/Nov.

I'm sorry maybe I can buy into some early Oct. activity but not any in Nov. that would
affect the U.S. IMO

Really?Wilma hit south florida on oct 24 almost at the end of the month.US hurricane landfalls in November, thankfully, are very rare. Since 1861, only 6 US November hurricane landfalls have occurred, most recently 20 years ago ...

[hurricanetrack]

Well, it is just one run, but the 0Z GFS tonight shows NOTHING at 384 hours. Everything that comes off of Africa evaporates before making it across. This is very odd to see. It looks like the waves literally dry up and fade away in to nothing. Who knows, maybe this is the way the hurricane season will go, but odds are against that. But, when you look at that run, and again, it's only one run, it shows not a single tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin at 384 hours. Sure is a big high sitting over the north-central Atlantic but no tropical storms and no hurricanes.

I saved that last image and will post it again on September 10 at 8pm ET to compare to what the reality is at that time. There is little else to do right now, so why not....afterall, September 10 or near abouts is the traditional peak, yes? We shall see what kind of peak we have this year....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that the hypro-active part of our active cycle is over. Because I believe there is a overall "stable layer" that stops development through out the tropical Atlatnic. With years that have lower then normal pressures or warmer then normal waters=easlier to bust that. In which causing much more activity.

I believe that this season will have not more then 12 named storms. In also believe that it is possible that the next 3-4 seasons could have about the same if not less. Yes we could see deans and powerful storms, but hey it can't last forever. Now I could be wrong about this, could all be a down turn in the overall active pattern. We will see, I can't see the future.

[cycloneye]

Well, it is just one run, but the 0Z GFS tonight shows NOTHING at 384 hours. Everything that comes off of Africa evaporates before making it across. This is very odd to see. It looks like the waves literally dry up and fade away in to nothing. Who knows, maybe this is the way the hurricane season will go, but odds are against that. But, when you look at that run, and again, it's only one run, it shows not a single tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin at 384 hours. Sure is a big high sitting over the north-central Atlantic but no tropical storms and no hurricanes.

I saved that last image and will post it again on September 10 at 8pm ET to compare to what the reality is at that time. There is little else to do right now, so why not....afterall, September 10 or near abouts is the traditional peak, yes? We shall see what kind of peak we have this year....

336 hours

Mark,at least one run (06z) has something but is a fish so you will have to wait a bit longer to start a chase.

[robbielyn]

wasn't hurricane Kate in 1985 in November?

[weatherman21]

In regards to the that area of low pressure which lately the GFS has been predicting will track offshore the west African coast by the end of next week or next weekend (8/30 to 9/01), I have not seen good consistancy in the GFS for this feature. The model has detected something in one run and in the next it predicts a different scenerio. All this I am comparing to the excellent performance and consistancy of the GFS with Hurricane Dean.
However, the latest run of the GFS from 12Z this morning is falling back to earlier runs from a couple days ago and is indicating a rather strong area of low pressure to emerge off the west African coast by next Friday or so. I am also noticing the GFS is not showing this possible low pressure area to track as quickly as Hurricane Dean did once it emerged as a wave off the African coast.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like the models still don't show anything definite over the next week at least. Again, the GFS develops low pressures here and there and they head west and dry up or turn north over the open Atlantic.

The new Euro shows nothing out to 10 days.

This is really amazing to see- almost no activity as we approach the peak of the hurricane season. We are now over 22 months since a hurricane hit the United States- think the odds of making it to 24 months are within reason now. I would not have believed that it would look/be so quiet this time of year with all of the positive parameters supposedly in place for this season.

Still, we have a long way to go, but we will escape August without a single hurricane even threatening the U.S.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 384 hours

It was about time to see something strong but in fishland.

[flwxwatcher]

wasn't hurricane Kate in 1985 in November?

Yes Hurricane Kate was a November Storm and Kate was a major hurricane for part of its journey in the Gulf.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[miamicanes177]

Still, we have a long way to go, but we will escape August without a single hurricane even threatening the U.S.

Umm Dean? He was a big enough threat for Louisiana to declare a state of emergency. For the record the last time we had this list of names was 2001. That season did not get Felix until September 7th. It ended with 15 storms. There is plenty of time for this season to be a historic nightmare. How many people would still be talking about how slow it was if we were watching the aftermath of catastrophic hurricane Dean on CNN? If that Cat 5 hit the US it would be on tv 24/7 and everyone in the country would be talking about how this is one of the worst seasons of all time.

[flwxwatcher]

Still, we have a long way to go, but we will escape August without a single hurricane even threatening the U.S.

Umm Dean? He was a big enough threat for Louisiana to declare a state of emergency. For the record the last time we had this list of names was 2001. That season did not get Felix until September 7th. It ended with 15 storms. There is plenty of time for this season to be a historic nightmare. How many people would still be talking about how slow it was if we were watching the aftermath of catastrophic hurricane Dean on CNN? If that Cat 5 hit the US it would be on tv 24/7 and everyone in the country would be talking about how this is one of the worst seasons of all time.

Great point and your dead on !! 1992 had only 6 named storms ( plus one subtropical storm in April) and was a below normal season but nobody uses that slow season to compare with other seasons thought to be slow; Of course because of Andrew. I still think we will end up with totals like 2001 and like wxman57 and some other pro mets on the internet have pointed out the U.S. appears to be at risk this year for landfalling hurricanes.. Time will tell.

[hurricanetrack]

Is the GFS broke? Or is it that there will be no named storms for another 10 days or more? What the heck? The 00UTC run shows very little in the way of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

So, either the GFS is just not seeing what is coming and there will be several named storms in the coming days/weeks or....

it is working just fine and for some reason the Atlantic hurricane season is not going to do very much for reasons yet unknown to the many scientists in the U.S. Add to that- somehow the folks at the UKMET office saw this coming in their seasonal forecast calling for mediorce activity at best.

All indications seemed to point to a very active season with the east Atlantic PERHAPS being not as active as it could be, but that does not explain why tropical waves seem to move off Africa and slowly die away as they go west.

I cannot wait to see what September 10 looks like compared to what the GFS is showing.

BTW- the 10 day ECMWF shows nothing in the Atlantic either. Wow....astounding.

[Kennethb]

It is eerily quiet all across the North Hemisphere. With all the heat in the oceans, there is plenty of energy to disperse. As far as the Atlantic Basin, I wonder if it is like a rubber band that is getting stretched out and all of a sudden will pop with a series of storms.