New storm on the horizon??

[jhamps10]

...

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

Bite yer tongue.

I've been watching Dean, had no idea we were up to 11 pages on this.

Bears watching for sure. Can someone summarize what's going on. I read all the thread but I'm not sure what besides CMC and a brief mention in a TWO we know.

Definitely under influence of ridge here and gradient to Dean to the south. Really steady and strong easterly flow over the Keys tonight, some convection tracking in from the straits.

I'll do my best to summarize:

The models over the past few days developed a hurricane that would strike Florida's EC, specifically SFL by next weekend, and we now have a surface low centered NE of the Lesser Antellies, with convection now developing at a pretty good clip. it is heading WNW to NW at I'd guess 18-20 MPH. The question is right now, will it develop into a system? Right now it appears that it will develop, the question is when, and how strong will it get.

That help you out some?


EDIT to fix errors in text.

[Canelaw99]

Looks like I'll be topping off the gas tanks and propane, and picking up some water, just in case. Would like to avoid the frenzy that will likely occur once this thing gets going (yeah, yeah IF, I know....) because there won't be much time. Will definitely keep my eye on this one this week.

[Recurve]

Thanks, yes, that's right on. Guess I gotta start calculating time/distance to the coast.

[Vortex]

WOW..What a blow up..What really concerns me is how favorable the conditions will be for this system the next 5-7 days. Also basrd on the synoptics it would appear that whatever forms would head towards the bahamas, Fl, and then the Gulf. This system is really blowing up tonight!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[windstorm99]

[Sanibel]

Looks like a 150mph fly in the ointment, to me, WSW of that disturbance.

[Tropics Guy]

From the TWD this evening...........
THE NRN PORTION OF THE
WAVE IS THE ACTIVE REGION...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...WITH IR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 48W-55W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS
IT TRACKS WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TG

[boca]

I heard the high preesure will weaken after mid week is that true? Which is keeping Dean a low tracker too.

[windstorm99]

I heard the high preesure will weaken after mid week is that true? Which is keeping Dean a low tracker too.

We'll from the looks of what ive seen high pressure should be in control through out most of this week.Upper level winds should become quite favorable in the area for some development.Persistence is key though.

[boca]

So I guess this system at 55w and 23n can do is track west towards us.

[windstorm99]

So I guess this system at 55w and 23n can do is track west towards us.

Per the NHC at 530 they said it was moving WNW-W with slow development possible.Waiting for the 1030 but nothing yet.

[Vortex]

For what its worth NAM 00z 8/20 closes off a low at H-54 just east of the bahamas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[cycloneye]

The 10:30 PM TWO is delayed while the Dean advisory package was being released.Shortly it will be out.

[Vortex]

NAM 00z 8/20 you can follow the vorticity as it approaches SE Fl.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[windstorm99]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200318
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO
25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$



We may have game here folks....We'll see.

[wsquared77]

Looks like I'll be topping off the gas tanks and propane, and picking up some water, just in case. Would like to avoid the frenzy that will likely occur once this thing gets going (yeah, yeah IF, I know....) because there won't be much time. Will definitely keep my eye on this one this week.

I'll see you at Publix! I really hate to wait until the last minute and then end up standing in line with all the other stressed out people! I may not go get extra stuff tomorrow (over and above what we already have) but I'm definitely keeping an eye on this. First sign of it heading this way and you bet I'll be there!

[MGC]

Now that I'm safe from Dean I'll be spending more time monitoring this disturbance. Could be the next real deal.....MGC

[Zardoz]

We may have game here folks....

Is it just my over-active imagination, or can we see the barest beginnings of cyclonic rotation already?

Tropical Atlantic AVN Loop

[Brent]

This looks like Felix...

[windstorm99]

We may have game here folks....

Is it just my over-active imagination, or can we see the barest beginnings of cyclonic rotation already?

Tropical Atlantic AVN Loop

Yep......Thunderstorm activity has been slowly increaseing all night...