Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[OURAGAN]

Convection, is firing again this morning over the LLC located at about 40W

[cycloneye]

NRL Visible Image at 10:45 UTC



Still the low center is detached from convection.However,it is a well defined low and once it gets more favorable conditions,it will develop.Is moving much slower than the other ones (Dean and Disturbance that is now Felix in that longitud) and that has to be watched as ridges and troughs in the Atlantic will play a key roll in terms of where this will go.

Fellow Caribbean members,lets keep watching as we have plenty of time to prepare for what this may bring to the area,unless something happens that it goes NE of the islands.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[punkyg]

So is 98L's center half covered with the sheared convection or still exposed.

[cycloneye]

02/1145 UTC 11.8N 38.6W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805 AM:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
38W...OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
38W-43W...DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO ABOUT
20 KT OF ELY SHEAR.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing.

[punkyg]

Near or around the centr!

Dang it looks like he center is still exposed.

[Weatherboy1]

Yep, the center is definitely still exposed with convection only to the W and SW of the center. We'll need to see that shear let up for this low to develop.

[Derek Ortt]

conditions are not exactly expected to become more favorable based upon the SHIPS guidance

[cycloneye]

13:15 UTC NRL Visible



Low center is still exposed just east of the convection.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB continues to foresee a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours

[windstorm99]

[windstorm99]

Thoughts on the lasest models for 98L...

[stormchazer]

My thoughts are the models are on "crack"!

It almost appears the models are sensing a weakness in the steering.

[wxwonder12]

Dosen't seem like it will go due West for right now anyway.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models trending north, looks to move just north of the islands
and into the bahamas possibly later in the week, then go West
as the ridge builds back in.

[HURAKAN]

Models trending north, looks to move just north of the islands
and into the bahamas possibly later in the week, then go West
as the ridge builds back in.

I don't like your analysis!!!! But it sounds right.

[Blown Away]

Now that's the kind of model confusion we like to see and debate about. Yep we are in September and the troughs are coming into play.