ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[weatherguru18]

I think what he's trying to say is -- There hasn't been a storm in SETX that has brought up the massive storm surge into populated areas.. Maybe "Direct Hit" isn't the proper term for this, rather a "Direct Hit at High Island" would been the worse case scenerio for SETX.

I'm pretty sure a Freeport to San Luis Pass would be the worst case scenerio for Houston. Have the right front quadrant pass directly over Galveston Bay and the ship channel and eventually Downtown Houston.

[Pebbles]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.... you do remember Ivan right?

yeah Pojo but didnt Ivan do a dance around Jam.....sparing the eyewall to some extent?

Parts of Jamaica rode the eyewall if I remember correctly... but it was spared a 'landfall' ... not that it helped matters really. It was still a mess there.

[pojo]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.... you do remember Ivan right?

yeah Pojo but didnt Ivan do a dance around Jam.....sparing the eyewall to some extent?

it barely missed.... was SW of Kingston moved WNW

[Texas Snowman]

If a leftward track through the north-central GOM occurs, the loop current comes into effect, correct?

[fasterdisaster]

I doubt Gustav will be worse for Jamaica than Dean.

Gilbert was a Cat 3 in Jamaica and it was catastrophic there...

I know but for Gustav to be the worst in 20 years it would have to be worse than both Ivan and Dean which I don't think will happen.

[lost cause]

I think what he's trying to say is -- There hasn't been a storm in SETX that has brought up the massive storm surge into populated areas.. Maybe "Direct Hit" isn't the proper term for this, rather a "Direct Hit at High Island" would been the worse case scenerio for SETX.

I'm pretty sure a Freeport to San Luis Pass would be the worst case scenerio for Houston. Have the right front quadrant pass directly over Galveston Bay and the ship channel and eventually Downtown Houston.

You guys are all full of good news.

Frankly, I know my wife and I could do without another Rita-like experience since we live on Galveston Island. We're watching this one and it's track has some eerie potential that we're not exactly liking down here.

[Jagno]

Well, not trying to "split hairs" because being a Texan, I certainly remember the damage that Rita caused in our state.

But from the official history of Rita on the NHC Web site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL182005_Rita.doc ) the official point of the eye's landfall was just east of Sabine Pass:

Rita maintained Category 3 status up to the time of landfall of the center, which occurred at 0740 UTC 24 September with an estimated intensity of 100 kt, in extreme southwestern Louisiana just west of Johnson’s Bayou and just east of Sabine Pass.

Rita weakened after making landfall, remaining a hurricane until only about 1200 UTC 24 September when it was centered about 35 n mi north of Beaumont, Texas.

Of course, not that it matters at all since both SW La and SE Texas both endured a horrible beating from this Cat 3 storm.

All in all, it was a poor choice of words on my part. Instead of saying direct hit, which Texas certainly received, I should have said a landfalling hurricane whose eye and worst storm surge officially occurred at some point within the boundaries of Texas.

Meanwhile, back on topic - sorry for the detour.

I wasn't going to correct you because you are sooooo right in that we both took a horrible beating that day.

I'm not worried but I am following through with my hurricane preparation plan that begins when a storm is forecasted to enter the gulf. Being prepared generally lessens the anxiety.I do suggest that everyone reading these threads go fill up your cars, 4-wheelers, gas cans and fuel cells tomorrow because as Gus enters the Gulf the prices will certainly increase on this projected path. As for now my 6-7 day plan (Upon forecast of entering the Gulf) is to (1)begin bagging as much ice as my ice maker can produce (2) Fill all fuel and propane tanks at once (3) start filling freezer with water bottles (4) Keep laundry current (5) Inventory Freezers and try to use up as much as possible from freezer for this weeks meals (4) check storm2K at least every couple of hours.

[Texas Snowman]

Jagno, correct, while the official NHC landfall occurred in southwestern Louisiana just east of Sabine Pass, it was a bad, bad night no matter which side of the Sabine you were on.

Also, getting back to matters at hand, looking at recent IR sat loop, it appears to me that Gustav is moving more to the west now.

Anybody else see that?

[twister]

NHC just bumped Gus to 70 mph sustained winds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

[pojo]

NHC just bumped Gus to 70 mph sustained winds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

that's not surprising.....

[Normandy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evening guys, thought I would post my thoughts.
Just got back and Gustav for sure is a hurricane, and I have no doubt recon will find that. Satellite presentation has improved drastically, and a CDO feature seems to be finally developing with Gustav. Microwave imagery supports the deepening of the core as well, with a fast closing eyewall developing. As I expected, Gustav's nortward component seems to have flattened today, and all indications are that it will not go north of Cuba. Check out the steering flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Notice the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas. That will guide this system south of Cuba. Models are shifting south in response to this, and they even suggest the ridge might be stronger. Some dive this WSW once passing Haiti, and bring it very close to Jamaica. I don't think that will happen, but a track near the north coast of Jamaica can't be ruled out. All in all, my thinking is the same as earlier. I think Gustav will pass just south of the tip of Haiti, south of the Cuban coast, and cross Cuba somewhere west of Havana. From there I don't know where it will go, but I do forsee it impacting the US.

Intensity is very bad. I truly think this will become a major hurricane, as unlike Fay, I do NOT forsee this passing close enough to Cuba to weaken it. Heat Content is highest south of Cuba, and there is no shear in Gustav's way. Note the shear tendency map, less than 5-10kts all ahead of Gustav.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I fear that once this hurricane crosses Cuba, it will be a catastrophic storm. This is EASILY the most dangerous threat in the atlantic basin this year so far.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed Probably the biggest major of the season and rest of the way.

[Gustywind]

Agreed Probably the biggest major of the season and rest of the way.

And it's the beginning of the beginning, we're experiencing the peak ( just underway), all the waves are BEAR watching...

[southerngale]

Well, not trying to "split hairs" because being a Texan, I certainly remember the damage that Rita caused in our state.

But from the official history of Rita on the NHC Web site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL182005_Rita.doc ) the official point of the eye's landfall was just east of Sabine Pass:

Rita maintained Category 3 status up to the time of landfall of the center, which occurred at 0740 UTC 24 September with an estimated intensity of 100 kt, in extreme southwestern Louisiana just west of Johnson’s Bayou and just east of Sabine Pass.

Rita weakened after making landfall, remaining a hurricane until only about 1200 UTC 24 September when it was centered about 35 n mi north of Beaumont, Texas.

Of course, not that it matters at all since both SW La and SE Texas both endured a horrible beating from this Cat 3 storm.

All in all, it was a poor choice of words on my part. Instead of saying direct hit, which Texas certainly received, I should have said a landfalling hurricane whose eye and worst storm surge officially occurred at some point within the boundaries of Texas.

Meanwhile, back on topic - sorry for the detour.

I wasn't going to correct you because you are sooooo right in that we both took a horrible beating that day.

I'm not worried but I am following through with my hurricane preparation plan that begins when a storm is forecasted to enter the gulf. Being prepared generally lessens the anxiety.I do suggest that everyone reading these threads go fill up your cars, 4-wheelers, gas cans and fuel cells tomorrow because as Gus enters the Gulf the prices will certainly increase on this projected path. As for now my 6-7 day plan (Upon forecast of entering the Gulf) is to (1)begin bagging as much ice as my ice maker can produce (2) Fill all fuel and propane tanks at once (3) start filling freezer with water bottles (4) Keep laundry current (5) Inventory Freezers and try to use up as much as possible from freezer for this weeks meals (4) check storm2K at least every couple of hours.

Excellent prep plans - nothing drastic, yet very helpful in the event something does come your way. You ought to post them in the Hurricane Preparation forum as well.

[funster]

I hope everyone evacuates that should if this one develops as many think it will. It is a pain on those backed-up evacuation routes (especially if landfall will interrupt a fun holiday weekend) but still better than being stuck in a major hurricane. I know the people on this forum will leave but hopefully the less weather savvy public will evacuate as well.

[txag2005]

If this thing does end up going towards SE Texas, I hope the whole contraflow system set up here in Houston after Rita actually works. I wasn't here during Rita (was still in college), but I heard it took 10-15 hours just to get from my side of town (League City area) up to the north side.

[Stormcenter]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evening guys, thought I would post my thoughts.
Just got back and Gustav for sure is a hurricane, and I have no doubt recon will find that. Satellite presentation has improved drastically, and a CDO feature seems to be finally developing with Gustav. Microwave imagery supports the deepening of the core as well, with a fast closing eyewall developing. As I expected, Gustav's nortward component seems to have flattened today, and all indications are that it will not go north of Cuba. Check out the steering flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Notice the ridge over Florida and the Bahamas. That will guide this system south of Cuba. Models are shifting south in response to this, and they even suggest the ridge might be stronger. Some dive this WSW once passing Haiti, and bring it very close to Jamaica. I don't think that will happen, but a track near the north coast of Jamaica can't be ruled out. All in all, my thinking is the same as earlier. I think Gustav will pass just south of the tip of Haiti, south of the Cuban coast, and cross Cuba somewhere west of Havana. From there I don't know where it will go, but I do forsee it impacting the US.

Intensity is very bad. I truly think this will become a major hurricane, as unlike Fay, I do NOT forsee this passing close enough to Cuba to weaken it. Heat Content is highest south of Cuba, and there is no shear in Gustav's way. Note the shear tendency map, less than 5-10kts all ahead of Gustav.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I fear that once this hurricane crosses Cuba, it will be a catastrophic storm. This is EASILY the most dangerous threat in the atlantic basin this year so far.

Please turn down the red. It's burning my eyes reading your posts.
Anyway it's too early to buy into your optimistic intensity forecasts but hey you have
50/50 chance of being right.

[Stormcenter]

Oh no!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Normandy]

What factors do you see that suggest it wont become as intense as I am speculating? And why doesn't anyone like the red? I think its cool.

[southmdwatcher]

Oh no!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Thats only a little hurricane heading for Texas on that loop.