ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[djmikey]

Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?

Local mets here in Beaumont have increased our chances for rain to 60% Friday! I would think if we got an increase, Houston would too!

[mpic]

Just one of the Houston stations. It made some sense to me, but I was hoping it was wrong because we need rain so badly. Not wishing for anything dangerous, but a few good downpours would be more than welcome.

[sphelps8681]

Impact last discussion was a possible cat 1 or minimal cat 2 not out of the question...I tend to agree with current look...

Rock

What are your thoughts as far as landfall and intensity, based on potential movement of death ridge?

[mpic]

Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?

Local mets here in Beaumont have increased our chances for rain to 60% Friday! I would think if we got an increase, Houston would too!

I've GOT to stop watching tv! lol

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to see possibly a convective band trying to wrap around the north side of the circ.

[vbhoutex]

On the other side of that coin, Frank Billingsley at Channel 2 is saying we may have 6" of rain out of Don. I would guess, based on what I have read and heard, that we are looking at a good soaking in the metro Houston area, but I am not sure about 6" unless Don landfalls further up the coast than currently expected.

[Weatherfreak000]

Very pleased for the ppl in Texas who really need this rain. Goes to show TC's may not always be as bad as people make them out to be.


And I DEFINITELY think this is going to make cat 1. at least.

[Air Force Met]

Just one of the Houston stations. It made some sense to me, but I was hoping it was wrong because we need rain so badly. Not wishing for anything dangerous, but a few good downpours would be more than welcome.

I figured it was a local TV or radio personality...but who?

[KWT]

Starting to see possibly a convective band trying to wrap around the north side of the circ.

Yeah I think I'm starting to see that, I'm waiting for the next microwave pass to see whether it really is wrapping up like it appears to be doing.

I'd be rather surprised if it was dry in Houston but the exact track is obviously key.

[hurricanejustin]

On the other side of that coin, Frank Billingsley at Channel 2 is saying we may have 6" of rain out of Don. I would guess, based on what I have read and heard, that we are looking at a good soaking in the metro Houston area, but I am not sure about 6" unless Don landfalls further up the coast than currently expected.

I think Frank was referring to the potential amount of rainfall where the storm actually makes landfall...that's what I gathered from it, anyway

[KBBOCA]

Hoping and praying much of Texas gets good soaking rains without a lot of destructive wind & flooding.

Good to see the board so active.

[ROCK]

Impact last discussion was a possible cat 1 or minimal cat 2 not out of the question...I tend to agree with current look...

Rock

What are your thoughts as far as landfall and intensity, based on potential movement of death ridge?

Landfall TX/LA border to CC now....At first I was thinking Freeport and South...not anymore....intensity is not so cut and dry....I do not want to speculate until later tonght and see the overall presentation.....If it has an eye tonight all bets are off and this is a serious situation with only 2 days to prepare.

[jasons2k]

On the other side of that coin, Frank Billingsley at Channel 2 is saying we may have 6" of rain out of Don. I would guess, based on what I have read and heard, that we are looking at a good soaking in the metro Houston area, but I am not sure about 6" unless Don landfalls further up the coast than currently expected.

I hope so, I really do, but at this point I'm a bit concerned we may not see much of anything in Metro Houston. We'll see what happens tonight....

[KWT]

And I DEFINITELY think this is going to make cat 1. at least.

History of systems forming in this region taking a boradly WNW track tend to make you right, its much more common for them to become hurricanes then not, though systems forming near there don't normally go above Cat-2..Celia is the one exception that comes to my mind right now.

[ajurcat]

I hope this doesn't jinx anyone in the Houston area but we are bring my 85 yo mom from Texas City to NW Houston tomorrow just to be on the safe side. May those that need it and want it (basically all of Texas), I hope you are blessed with rain and none of the other problems associated with tropical systems.

[Air Force Met]

Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?

I think whomever said that is over thinking things. For one thing, we are talking a tropical system here. It will be pulling in massive amounts of deep moisture from the tropics since the system will almost certainly pass to the left of the Houston area. If Houston doesn't get a lot of rain, it won't be because of dry air...it will be because it went too far west. PW's should be off the chart high.

Second: Any dry air out there now will be gone by Friday. The upper levels will be totally different by then...which is why I am calling for more development than the NHC.

[sphelps8681]

Impact last discussion was a possible cat 1 or minimal cat 2 not out of the question...I tend to agree with current look...

Rock

What are your thoughts as far as landfall and intensity, based on potential movement of death ridge?

Landfall TX/LA border to CC now....At first I was thinking Freeport and South...not anymore....intensity is not so cut and dry....I do not want to speculate until later tonght and see the overall presentation.....If it has an eye tonight all bets are off and this is a serious situation with only 2 days to prepare.

Thanks, I appreciate your comments. I look forward to future comments. I do believe to that it will track further up the coast.

[ROCK]

Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?

I think whomever said that is over thinking things. For one thing, we are talking a tropical system here. It will be pulling in massive amounts of deep moisture from the tropics since the system will almost certainly pass to the left of the Houston area. If Houston doesn't get a lot of rain, it won't be because of dry air...it will be because it went too far west. PW's should be off the chart high.

Second: Any dry air out there now will be gone by Friday. The upper levels will be totally different by then...which is why I am calling for more development than the NHC.

I would agree with that....you still thinking a mini Cat 1?

[vbhoutex]

On the other side of that coin, Frank Billingsley at Channel 2 is saying we may have 6" of rain out of Don. I would guess, based on what I have read and heard, that we are looking at a good soaking in the metro Houston area, but I am not sure about 6" unless Don landfalls further up the coast than currently expected.

I think Frank was referring to the potential amount of rainfall where the storm actually makes landfall...that's what I gathered from it, anyway

Just saw it again(the graphic)and its' title was Houston Effects.

[KWT]

Second: Any dry air out there now will be gone by Friday. The upper levels will be totally different by then...which is why I am calling for more development than the NHC.

Thats interesting, you still going with 80mph, or are you going even higher given the small nature of the system and the set-up you expect?

Whats going to be key is exactly how quickly the dry air that is in place over the west Gulf can get mixed out, a small system wouldn't require much of injection of more stable air to cause real problems...of course on the otherhand, if conditions are good then who knows what may happen.