NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[TheHurricaneGod]

WV eye temp rose to -2.67C at 11:25 UTC

[Beef Stew]

AF303 is at operational level and is entering Melissa from the east as we speak, about 200 miles from the eye.

Shouldn't be too long now. AF should get at least a few center passes in prior to landfall. I'm really doubting the NOAA plane makes it in time, but we'll see.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For what it's worth, this will be another upper echelon DAY TIME landfall.

The storm chaser videos could rival Dorian.

Dorian and Super Typhoon Haiyan are the two analogs that have been coming to mind.

[Fancy1002]

Just woke up, reviewed what happened over the last few hours, and it just reminds me more and more why I hate it when there’s no plane in the storm. She’s looking incredible, and if I had to take a guess has likely been stronger over the last few hours, but we might not know it’s actual strength if the plane doesn’t get there in time.

[Beef Stew]

For what it's worth, this will be another upper echelon DAY TIME landfall.

The storm chaser videos could rival Dorian.

Dorian and Super Typhoon Haiyan are the two analogs that have been coming to mind.

Irma in the Lesser Antilles as well. Some of the videos I remember seeing from St. Maarten rivaled just about any I've seen.

[DESTRUCTION5]

 https://x.com/Stormyalert/status/1983138597608829136

I have witnessed many historical happenings with storm2k the last 25 years but what were about to witness and be a part of with Jamacia is biblical.

God speed to Jamaica. Stay safe.

[ronjon]

AF303 is at operational level and is entering Melissa from the east as we speak, about 200 miles from the eye.

Shouldn't be too long now. AF should get at least a few center passes in prior to landfall. I'm really doubting the NOAA plane makes it in time, but we'll see.

NOAA plane traveling at 430+ mph. It will be a close call. Thinking landfall in 2 hrs.

[kronotsky]

Just woke up, reviewed what happened over the last few hours, and it just reminds me more and more why I hate it when there’s no plane in the storm. She’s looking incredible, and if I had to take a guess has likely been stronger over the last few hours, but we might not know it’s actual strength if the plane doesn’t get there in time.

It looks like a pretty sure thing at this point that the AF plane will get in at least one center pass, barring technical malfunctions. Two might be tight.

[GCANE]

I have never seen radial and toroidal gravity waves simultaneously.
Perfect symmetry.
Absolutely deadly.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[mrbagyo]

The storm chaser videos could rival Dorian.

Dorian and Super Typhoon Haiyan are the two analogs that have been coming to mind.

Irma in the Lesser Antilles as well. Some of the videos I remember seeing from St. Maarten rivaled just about any I've seen.

Megi was also a daytime upper echelon Cat 5 landfall and the eye really cleared before landing (very remote though and no known footage in Divilacan)

[kevin]

Any estimates for what recon will find? I think Melissa might've intensified very slightly in the hour after the previous recon left with a peak intensity in the 898 - 901 mb range. Some eyewall changes happened afterwards which might've induced slight weakening. Right now I think it's stable or very slowly intensifying in the 905 - 908 mb range. So my guess is 906mb/145kt.

[kevin]

Meanwhile the eye temperature has gone over 20C on Dvorak for the first time in 15 hours.

[Stormgodess]

I have never seen radial and toroidal gravity waves simultaneously.
Perfect symmetry.
Absolutely deadly.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

A nice still shot of it

 https://x.com/spann/status/1983137018671460713

[Beef Stew]

Any estimates for what recon will find? I think Melissa might've intensified very slightly in the hour after the previous recon left with a peak intensity in the 898 - 901 mb range. Some eyewall changes happened afterwards which might've induced slight weakening. Right now I think it's stable or very slowly intensifying in the 905 - 908 mb range. So my guess is 906mb/145kt.

I'm thinking something very similar- I'd say 908mb 145kts, but with I don't think the intensity will be lowered from 150kts at this point

[mrbagyo]

I expect the radar echo of the eyewall ring to thicken as it near the coast in response to some frictional convergence - just like what happened to Mangkhut in 2018

[syfr]

Definite ENE motion now.

Kingston looks like it's in for a rough ride.

[grapealcoholic]

recon <150 miles away

35 mins or so

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Just woke up, reviewed what happened over the last few hours, and it just reminds me more and more why I hate it when there’s no plane in the storm. She’s looking incredible, and if I had to take a guess has likely been stronger over the last few hours, but we might not know it’s actual strength if the plane doesn’t get there in time.

There is a plane in the storm. First eye pass shortly.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1983137704037757105

[Hurricane Mike]

8am Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4H5z1W8-TY