TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

Derek there's your circulation This morning's QS:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

I believe it's also further SW than TPC position at 5am this morning.

[CronkPSU]

I just loked and she is moving wnw AGAIN but how long will it last?

if we knew that, we would be writing the discussions for the NHC instead of talking about them here, but if someone does figure it out I will gladly buck up some money for the IPO

[storms in NC]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

ThunderMate, I don't think it is you. I definitely see the beginnings of a more WNW heading instead of the more NW we were seeing yesterday. Irene is reacting to the building ridge to the north, which has caused this more westward heading. This wasn't unexpected. Once Irene comes closer to land, it should start moving toward the NW again. This 290 motion is NOT expected to continue all the way to the coast...

Are we sure with Her? just joking

[CronkPSU]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

ThunderMate, I don't think it is you. I definitely see the beginnings of a more WNW heading instead of the more NW we were seeing yesterday. Irene is reacting to the building ridge to the north, which has caused this more westward heading. This wasn't unexpected. Once Irene comes closer to land, it should start moving toward the NW again. This 290 motion is NOT expected to continue all the way to the coast...

how close to land it moves before turning NW is the key, the newest models should be out soon but i have no idea if the settings will be at 310 or 290...big difference

[CronkPSU]

some cool mosaics from the navy site

http://152.80.49.216/archdat/tc05/ATL/0 ... site.x.jpg

[Hyperstorm]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

ThunderMate, I don't think it is you. I definitely see the beginnings of a more WNW heading instead of the more NW we were seeing yesterday. Irene is reacting to the building ridge to the north, which has caused this more westward heading. This wasn't unexpected. Once Irene comes closer to land, it should start moving toward the NW again. This 290 motion is NOT expected to continue all the way to the coast...

how close to land it moves before turning NW is the key, the newest models should be out soon but i have no idea if the settings will be at 310 or 290...big difference

They will probably go with the same motion or an average of 300. They take into the account the past 12 hours of heading into the models. I would wait until later this afternoon for the NHC to acknowledge this more westward turn...

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be a 55KT tropical storm moving faster to the west this morning based upon visible imagery

[CronkPSU]

thanks as always derek!

[wxwatcher91]

another interesting thing about Irene turning more WNW again is that this will keep her away from the cooler waters to her N and NW and steer her nearer to the southern end of the Gulf Stream.

[ThunderMate]

I do have a question... Looking at the forcasted plots for Irene on the floater they are appering like they are to far to the north due to this W/WNW motion...will that probably be changed farther west towards the coast once again at the next advisory?

[ThunderMate]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Notice how the heating of the sun makes Irene blossom once the sunlight hits her. This is the reason at night hurricanes lose convection and at day they gain with each time usually stronger every day this happens.

[CronkPSU]

I do have a question... Looking at the forcasted plots for Irene on the floater they are appering like they are to far to the north due to this W/WNW motion...will that probably be changed farther west towards the coast once again at the next advisory?

probably, but it may not be until the 5 PM update, the smae thing happened last night where it tracked NNW from 7 PM until early this morning, they didn't update the track much at 11 PM but they did at 5 AM...if this motion continues, may not see much movement at the 11 AM update but more at the 5 PM

[storms in NC]

From what I read in NHC is that it will turn out to sea as it get closer to the coast. I may have read it wrong sill not a wake yet

[ThunderMate]

did you read the 5 am discussion or what?

[Thunder44]

From Dvorak:

12/1145 UTC 27.8N 66.5W T3.5/3.5 IRENE

[sma10]

I think it's quite obvious at this point that Irene's short term motion since the last advisory is significantly to the LEFT of 310 degrees.

[Thunder44]

230
WHXX01 KWBC 121240
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050812 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 1200 050813 0000 050813 1200 050814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 66.4W 29.0N 68.1W 29.7N 69.7W 30.6N 71.3W
BAMM 28.0N 66.4W 28.8N 68.0W 29.4N 69.4W 30.0N 70.7W
A98E 28.0N 66.4W 29.2N 68.9W 30.4N 70.2W 31.8N 71.1W
LBAR 28.0N 66.4W 29.2N 68.1W 30.2N 69.7W 31.1N 71.0W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 68KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 1200 050815 1200 050816 1200 050817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.7N 72.8W 34.1N 74.6W 36.0N 74.0W 37.0N 68.9W
BAMM 30.7N 71.9W 32.1N 73.7W 32.9N 74.9W 33.6N 75.4W
A98E 32.9N 71.4W 34.5N 70.7W 35.3N 68.2W 36.0N 65.6W
LBAR 31.9N 72.1W 33.8N 72.4W 34.9N 72.0W 35.7N 71.4W
SHIP 71KTS 69KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 71KTS 69KTS 67KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.0N LONCUR = 66.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 63.8W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 24.7N LONM24 = 61.7W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

Movement 300 degrees WNW at 15mph, Winds 65mph. Position is 1 whole degree further west and .4 degrees further north than the 5am position TPC had. Also the BAMM takes it toward the NC coast.

[sma10]

For a cool view, go to

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

and animate the 30 image loop. You get a good feel for Irene's current bending to the left.

[bmoreorless]

For those who missed it, look at the 5 a.m. discussion.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

I don't think this leftward turn is unexpected or indicative of a deviation from the 5 a.m. advisory.

[dwg71]

Models still suggesting out to sea. The next 24 hours will determine if I need to prepare a fried crow, or whether I can gloat.

Its a fish, I'm sticking with it.