Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[karenfromheaven]

link to the new EURO ?

Here is the
Official EURO Site
Karen

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, the Euro wants to take a tour of Florida..it had done really bad with the track this time..

[dixiebreeze]

One thing I always remember is that the NHC track has an exceptional record of verifying over the past years. Certainly within the given cone.

[Jason_B]

Note the LLC (such as it is) has still failed the NW component progged by NHC @ 12 hours.

Definetly going to be interesting to see how long this wnw motion lasts.

[cpdaman]

link to the new EURO ?

Here is the
Official EURO Site
Karen

great thanks

[karenfromheaven]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

I remember this very well Magnet. The model runs were shifting west and flopping back and forth like wiper blades. I was very concerned, because I chose to evacuate for hurricane Ivan, and the marina forced us to remove our boats for the storm. I had to anchor my beloved sailboat out in the bay, and then went home to pack all our valuables, the two cats, my tools, and leave town to stay with my sister in Gainseville. Model runs were putting Ivan on top of Panama City as a Cat 4, and when I left, I was not sure I would ever see my boat or house again. It was very stressful. As it was, Ivan turned and went to Pensacola (sorry Ivanhater!) and the house and boat were spared. The marina was trashed, as it was again the next year with Dennis, when I had to again anchor out my boat and pray.

I remember the day NHC put Katrina over the top of Panama City. It was Friday at lunchtime, and when I saw the track and intensity at landfall, I felt the bottom of my stomach drop out -- I was instantly sick. I remember thinking that at least it was the end of the week, and I could spend Sat. moving my boat and getting ready to leave. I absolutely hated the idea of it all. I decided to wait for one more flop of the models to see what would happen. Sure enough, they flopped one more time to New Orleans, and there they stayed for the duration. I had such mixed feelings. I was relieved to see the shift, guilty about feeling relieved, and sad that someone else would be taking the brunt of it.

Magnet, I'm sorry about your house and valuables. I'm glad you made it through and are here with us. Thanks for posting this.

Karen

[x-y-no]

That Euro run is nothing short of bizarre. It has Fay over western Cuba at 24 hours, approaching Naples at 48, emerging near Ft. Pierce day 3, Sitting still just offshore days 4 and 5 while intensifying, then taking off across the northern peninsula day 6, finally making a third landfall near Apalachicola day 7.

I'll eat my shorts if that happens.

[Scott_inVA]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

GFDN nailed Katrina...totally different climo and setup here...but I always remember the GFDN when there's anything near SFL

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog/blog_katrina.htm

Scott

[KWT]

Yeah that ECM track is pretty crazy, there has been a few systems that took tracks nearly as mad as that but doubt Fay will be one of them!

[Evil Jeremy]

Models continue to flip flop. I am just going to go by the cone now lol.

[TheRingo]

To be fair, and I think somebody else pointed this out earlier, the models have been shifting twice a day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing right later tonight, especially when/if it turns more NW pretty soon.

They will only shift the track slightly west to compensate for Diurnal's which will swing back east tonight.

[karenfromheaven]

As long as we're talking models, I don't know if this one has been posted before, but it shows estimated storm surge probabilities for the NHC track. You get to enter the level of storm surge you're interested in seeing, and it shows you the probabilities. It's based on the SLOSH data and models.

Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge

Karen

[feederband]

Models continue to flip flop. I am just going to go by the cone now lol.

You have just saved yourself alot of stress....

[Ivanhater]

I know its the NAM, but taking a huge shift west so far on the 18z run

[KWT]

Yep thats a pretty huge shift, just a good job its a pretty poor model to use for tropical cyclones, note its pretty weak on that run as well.

[Ivanhater]

54 Hours..

[NEXRAD]

Recall that the NAM previously took Fay up along the Florida East Coast, far east of any other guidance.

- Jay

[DESTRUCTION5]

Recall that the NAM previously took Fay up along the Florida East Coast, far east of any other guidance.

- Jay

It was in the middle of SFL last run..LOL at 48 hrs...

[T'Bonz]

**saves post, just in case.**

That Euro run is nothing short of bizarre. It has Fay over western Cuba at 24 hours, approaching Naples at 48, emerging near Ft. Pierce day 3, Sitting still just offshore days 4 and 5 while intensifying, then taking off across the northern peninsula day 6, finally making a third landfall near Apalachicola day 7.

I'll eat my shorts if that happens.

[Ivanhater]

66 hours..ugh!