ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Its almost like it just hts a wall in the middle of the gulf and drifts a little west. Looks like ridging block any movment from Brownsville to Key west and Ikey is just kinda stuck in the middle?

[vaffie]

Stronger ridge this run--does not seem to break down at the 120 hour stage--more similar to the 0Z run than the 6Z run. Heading towards Texas probably again.

Compare:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

Of course everyone should remember...model accuracy drops off considerably after 96 Hours.

[HouTXmetro]

If it hangs out long enough wouldn't that give it enough time for another trough to come in and sweep it North East?

[gtalum]

As we guessed, the 06z model trend to the east was bogus, just like it was yesterday.

[caneman]

caneman wrote:
And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

You did use the word "trash" Caneman.

OK I apologize then. Inaccurate thus far this year then. NHC mentioned a couple days ago more reliablility form GFS and GFDL. That is what I meant.

[Weatherfreak000]

144 hours...seems Central Texas.

[KWT]

Seems like it enters a region of very weak steering currents, not what you really want to see with a system that will probably be strengthening in the gulf waters according to the 12z GFS...

[crazycajuncane]

I would not put any stock in the models today. I won't even begin to get involved in discussions. Too many ??? about the steering contents. We've gone from a South Florida hit to a possible Tex-Mex hit. Let's see how Ike interacts with Cuba first. I'm not sure ole Ike won't get battered to less than a hurricane after that.

[Stratosphere747]

[vaffie]

If it hangs out long enough wouldn't that give it enough time for another trough to come in and sweep it North East?

It's not hanging out though--it's moving west at a good clip south of Louisiana.
Compare it's 12 hour movement at 120 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

[Portastorm]

I've seen enough of this 12z run to know that I want my Mommy! I really, REALLY hope this is a bogus run.

[PTPatrick]

I have to say I am AMAZED that there have been so many troughs and fronts this far south lately in Denver. We have had well below normal temps in Denver pretty much for the last 2 weeks and even tonight we have another coming and highs are supposed to be about 58 tomorrow. I normal high for early Semptember is 78. And from the looks of our forecast for the upcoming we they will keep coming every few days, actually another looks to arrive on Wednesday night...about the time Ike should be getting into the central gulf. So I find it difficult to believe that a major hurricane in the central gulf, esp a slow moving one, would not eventually get picked up and pulled north to LA or Eastward.

[chris_fit]

Wow that's a terrible run of the GFS.... I can see our gas prices skyrocket again if that verifies.

[deltadog03]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

[Stormcenter]

If it hangs out long enough wouldn't that give it enough time for another trough to come in and sweep it North East?

It's not hanging out though--it's moving west at a good clip south of Louisiana.
Compare it's 12 hour movement at 120 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

Yep it's moving per this run.

[caneman]

Of course everyone should remember...model accuracy drops off considerably after 96 Hours.

exactly and my point all along. Inside of 5 days worry about, inside of 3 days be prepared. Worrying about something 7 days down the road does no one any good. Heck, Charley changed course on us inside of a day.

[PTrackerLA]

144hrs, Ike turns NW towards Houston. Must be feeling trough now.

[gtalum]

I really, REALLY hope this is a bogus run.

Not to alarm you or anything, but with the exception of the 06z runs today and yesterday, the trend has clearly been towards Texas.

[Stormcenter]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

I can't even make out where all of those tracks point to on that chart.