ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 011816
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 13 20090901
180700 1609N 05644W 9643 00400 0097 +218 +164 207032 034 034 000 00
180730 1608N 05646W 9649 00395 0096 +221 +162 213031 032 034 001 00
180800 1607N 05647W 9643 00400 0095 +224 +161 215029 031 034 000 00
180830 1607N 05649W 9643 00400 0096 +224 +161 211027 028 034 000 00
180900 1606N 05650W 9644 00400 0096 +223 +161 209025 026 031 000 00
180930 1606N 05652W 9644 00398 0096 +224 +162 205023 026 031 000 00
181000 1605N 05653W 9640 00404 0097 +217 +162 208021 023 031 002 00
181030 1605N 05655W 9643 00400 0095 +231 +162 212024 025 030 000 00
181100 1604N 05657W 9646 00398 0096 +230 +163 212026 026 029 000 00
181130 1604N 05658W 9645 00400 0096 +231 +165 216027 028 032 000 00
181200 1603N 05700W 9643 00401 0096 +230 +168 219028 029 030 001 00
181230 1603N 05701W 9645 00399 0096 +230 +170 225026 027 031 000 00
181300 1602N 05703W 9642 00402 0096 +227 +172 227024 025 030 001 00
181330 1602N 05704W 9641 00403 0097 +225 +173 228022 023 029 002 00
181400 1601N 05706W 9650 00396 0095 +235 +173 225025 026 031 001 00
181430 1601N 05707W 9643 00402 0096 +232 +173 227025 025 030 001 00
181500 1600N 05709W 9643 00403 0096 +231 +175 229024 024 027 001 00
181530 1600N 05710W 9645 00399 0097 +229 +176 234022 023 026 001 00
181600 1559N 05712W 9642 00402 0096 +229 +177 232022 025 029 001 00
181630 1559N 05713W 9642 00402 0096 +230 +177 230025 026 029 001 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

what link are you using to get this i have a old link that is slow..

Try this.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

hey thanks thats what i was looking for..

[Evil Jeremy]

I think there seems to be some confusion as to what a "recurve" is. When the models show a storm moving with any eastward component, then it is a recurve. Right now, none of the models on the SFWMD chart are showing a recurve. And yes otown, the UKMET shows it weak, but that does not mean things won't change. Oh, and I think "Weak" for UKMET is like a TS, as the only different strengths they have are Weak, Moderate, and Intense I believe.

[gatorcane]

Again, I'm still not too worried in FL. Most models ARE showing a recurve prior to reaching the state. BUT the trend appears to be shifting west gradually for many models (CMC, GFDL, UKMET, etc.) If that continues for another day or two, then it'd be time to be more concerned.

I'm not concerned at all until I see models show very strong H5 ridging building down the Eastern Seaboard of the US, which no model seems to be showing currently. I noticed NHC now has it moving only at 10mph...that is a bit interesting but probably not going to change the upstream implications if we look at current model projections

[wxman57]

New model data just came out with an initial position of 16.8N/57.2W and a max wind of 35 kts. So if recon determines that the weak LLC is enough to classify, it'll be Erika in the next 2 hours or so. Another poor excuse for a storm, though. Shear should drop off eventually.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

2PM EDT from NHC's ATCF database:
16.8N 57.2W
35 knots
1007 mb

Still listed as a disturbance though. They could change that to a low and make it Erika though at any time.

[jlauderdal]

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

not if you are a hurricane tracker or want to run research missions into sytems

[Gustywind]

TD or not, TS or not? Just a perturbed area for the moment... heading this time more closer to the islands

[Aric Dunn]

New model data just came out with an initial position of 16.8N/57.2W and a max wind of 35 kts. So if recon determines that the weak LLC is enough to classify, it'll be Erika in the next 2 hours or so. Another poor excuse for a storm, though. Shear should drop off eventually.

that just so happens to be the exact.. coordinates I posted last page.. hehe

[Weatherboy1]

HPC progs bring this thing darn close to FL/NE Bahamas at Days 5-7. Show a slowing in forward speed/stall on a gradually recurving track...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009090118, , BEST, 0, 168N, 572W, 35, 1007

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011826
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 14 20090901
181700 1559N 05715W 9645 00400 0096 +226 +177 232022 024 028 001 00
181730 1559N 05717W 9645 00401 0096 +230 +177 232023 024 029 000 00
181800 1558N 05718W 9643 00401 0095 +234 +176 232024 025 029 003 00
181830 1558N 05720W 9647 00397 0096 +222 +176 229024 024 031 009 00
181900 1558N 05721W 9645 00400 0095 +230 +174 230024 024 030 007 00
181930 1557N 05723W 9644 00401 0096 +231 +173 234022 023 030 002 00
182000 1557N 05725W 9645 00401 0096 +230 +173 233021 021 030 000 00
182030 1557N 05726W 9645 00402 0097 +230 +174 233020 020 029 000 00
182100 1557N 05728W 9645 00400 0096 +230 +176 239019 019 027 000 00
182130 1556N 05729W 9643 00402 0096 +233 +177 238019 020 028 000 00
182200 1556N 05731W 9645 00401 0096 +230 +179 236020 020 028 000 00
182230 1556N 05733W 9645 00400 0097 +227 +179 242018 019 025 000 00
182300 1556N 05734W 9642 00405 0099 +216 +178 247016 017 025 004 00
182330 1555N 05736W 9644 00402 0100 +210 +175 247014 016 027 005 00
182400 1555N 05738W 9645 00402 0101 +209 +171 244011 013 025 004 00
182430 1555N 05739W 9642 00404 0099 +223 +167 243008 010 024 000 00
182500 1554N 05741W 9646 00402 0099 +230 +165 245010 011 020 000 00
182530 1554N 05743W 9645 00403 0100 +222 +166 240009 010 021 000 00
182600 1554N 05744W 9646 00401 0099 +224 +167 230011 012 021 000 00
182630 1554N 05746W 9647 00399 0100 +211 +167 246007 009 025 004 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 18:17:00Z (first observation), the observation was 255 miles (410 km) to the NE (38°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:26:30Z (last observation), the observation was 230 miles (370 km) to the NNE (32°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[CrazyC83]

So it will be Erika if a center is found.

[Gustywind]

Shear tendency...winds are relaxing in vicinity and ahead of 94L
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[hurricanetrack]

Best looking tropical wave in history. And I mean that. Let's get it to the next level and soon...some people have to get some sleep around here.

[otowntiger]

Another poor excuse for a storm, though

.

Kinda what I was thinking. Will this be Danny Part II? This certainly is not an impressive system and will be an even less impressive Tropical Storm, in my humble opinion of course. No doubt this will be a weather event of some kind for the the extreme northwest Lesser Antilles, but to what extent is not clear, albeit odds are not too serious I would guess.

*Disclaimer: I don't necesarily know what I'm talking about, I'm not a pro met, don't pay any attention... blah, blah, blah.....etc. etc. etc....*

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[storms NC]

12z UKMET

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
16.8N 56.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2009 16.8N 56.5W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2009 17.5N 58.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2009 17.4N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2009 18.1N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2009 18.2N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2009 19.3N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2009 20.0N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2009 20.6N 69.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2009 21.2N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2009 22.6N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2009 23.3N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2009 24.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2009 25.2N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I wasn't far off.

[Ivanhater]

Well just like with Ike (not exactly) If this is kept in check in the short term it will likely miss the first trough and have a building high over the east coast to contend with. Let's hope it strengthens soon...