Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

Euro and Canadian are suggestive of a very shallow sub-freezing layer (meaning freezing rain, not snow) pushing at least to central Texas by Wednesday afternoon/evening. That sets the stage for the trof axis to pass during the day on Thursday, providing the lifting for precip. I've seen these types of setup before. Generally, the sub-freezing air is too shallow for snow to form, so you get a mix of sleet and freezing rain. It's possible the air column aloft deepens enough as the trof exits on Thursday afternoon for the freezing rain and sleet to briefly change to snow as the precip ends.

Most likely areas would include northeast Texas (Dallas) north through central OK and east to Arkansas. I don't see anything to indicate a threat of freezing rain south to Houston, as I just don't think the sub-freezing air will reach Houston until after the precip ends on Thursday afternoon.

Oh, and one caveat about ALL the models. They did fairly well with last week's much deeper cold air. We could use the models to estimate the frontal position and vertical profile 3-5 days in advance. That won't be true with a shallower Arctic airmass. The models may be off on the southward extend of the front by 200-500 miles. They'll try to drive it back to the north as a warm front Wednesday night/Thursday morning, indicating nothing but rain in advance of the upper trof. Beware!

[iorange55]

So, basically a lot of people might be surprised.

[Ntxw]

Great analysis Wxman! I know you're lovin this weather and can't wait for it to continue into Feb

[mrgolf]

Wxman57,my name is kevin.I live around memphis,tn. I have a question. If the 12euro,canadian,and ukmet verifies,would we have a pretty good sleet/ice event on our hands? Ive noticed the high being 1045mb.Thats a pretty strong high. ive heard the afternoon models look somewhat more robust. Is that correct or no? If the front stalled out,would se texas through south-central mississippi on up toward the appalacians be a good starting point?thanks.

[Ntxw]

Yikes....

[iorange55]

Man the GFS sure is warm.

[wxman57]

Wxman57,my name is kevin.I live around memphis,tn. I have a question. If the 12euro,canadian,and ukmet verifies,would we have a pretty good sleet/ice event on our hands? Ive noticed the high being 1045mb.Thats a pretty strong high. ive heard the afternoon models look somewhat more robust. Is that correct or no? If the front stalled out,would se texas through south-central mississippi on up toward the appalacians be a good starting point?thanks.

Actually, if what the models are only hinting at happens, then it's most likely that the Arctic air will sink southward to the west of Memphis, putting northeast Texas and Oklahoma at greatest risk for winter precip on Thursday. You, in Memphis, may remain in the modified Canadian airmass on Thursday. But as the trof swings eastward Thursday night, the colder air will spill southward into Memphis. At that time, there could be a period of winter weather there.

[utweather]

Yikes....

Temps in northern Canada cold, but Bismarck, ND and International Falls MN, two areas I like to see have highs below zero are relatively warm, even around the UP of Michigan where I have visited during several winters in December with sub 20 below temps and below 0 highs 10 years ago look "relatively" warm also..

We seriously need that cross polar flow.

[Brandon8181]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good afternoon,

Here is my general opinion of how things will break down over the next 7 days or so. I do feel like the North east part of Texas has the best chance for a winter weather event.

For the next 3 to 4 days temperatures will be much warmer then what they have been over the last week, it will be mildly comfortable outside with fair days and cooler nights. I think the opportunity for winter precipiation will fall between between Wed and Fri, particularly very late Thu night, into Friday.

It seems like Candian, GFS, Euro, and the outside edge of the NAM reflects cold air coming down and are starting to "somewhat" agree on things a little. I also think the air will be slightly colder than most of us think it will be.

Largest areas of precip will be East of Hwy 75 and North of Interstate 20. I feel like as time moves on into Friday that more of east central Texas will also get winter weather (rather than central Texas).

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

I also agree with GFS that there will be re-enforcing cold air coming in again over the weekend (22-23) keeping things very cold.

[iorange55]

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

That is rather specific.

[Brandon8181]

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

That is rather specific.

Well...I could more likely than not be completely wrong. I'm not real good at this, but its fun to try...

[iorange55]

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

That is rather specific.

Well...I could more likely than not be completely wrong. I'm not real good at this, but its fun to try...

It is indeed. I try in my head so no one else can make fun of me but myself.

[Brandon8181]

Haha..I don't mind if people make fun.. but whats really kool if I'm actually right! lol And if I'm WAY off, then I'll just make fun of myself too lol

[utweather]

Good afternoon,

Here is my general opinion of how things will break down over the next 7 days or so. I do feel like the North east part of Texas has the best chance for a winter weather event.

For the next 3 to 4 days temperatures will be much warmer then what they have been over the last week, it will be mildly comfortable outside with fair days and cooler nights.

Sounds pretty good, long term you have plenty of time to modify and update your forecast like everyone else:-)

[orangeblood]

ECMWF ensembles and finally the GFS ensembles trending much colder starting Wednesday.

[Brandon8181]

ECMWF ensembles and finally the GFS ensembles trending much colder starting Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF ensembles and finally the GFS ensembles trending much colder starting Wednesday.

Look into the weekend.

[Ntxw]

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

I also agree with GFS that there will be re-enforcing cold air coming in again over the weekend (22-23) keeping things very cold.

I would differ on this. Classic arctic outbreaks like such will have storms riding NW flow. This is the type of normal winter set up that areas North and West will be target, while south and east may be cold too little too late. Cold air this time isn't coming from the northeast. If anything eastplexers stand the risk of being rigged the most this go round imo.

The panhandle and Oklahoma will be at the forefront of the assault.

[Brandon8181]

I think areas west of 75/45 will get little, or nothing. I also would like to add, that I believe the low tracking across Texas will support a strong pocket of cold air, and will generate a significant winter weather event just Northeast of DFW, near the Greenville area.

I also agree with GFS that there will be re-enforcing cold air coming in again over the weekend (22-23) keeping things very cold.

I would differ on this. Classic arctic outbreaks like such will have storms riding NW flow. This is the type of normal winter set up that areas North and West will be target, while south and east may be cold too little too late. Cold air this time isn't coming from the northeast. If anything eastplexers stand the risk of being rigged the most this go round imo.

The panhandle and Oklahoma will be at the forefront of the assault.

I feel like the precip will make its way across Oklahoma in an angled fashion from the northwest to southeast, then eventuall effecting north central, then northeast, then east Texas.


I currently, still do not feel like western sections generally west of 75 will be significantly affected.

[Mr. Weather]

No go for Houston still I take it