Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TheProfessor]

Looking at the Skew-Ts the 12z Euro would have us start off with light freezing rain then turning into a light sleet with most the precip falling as snow. Still near 10 days out though.

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, the unseasonable warmth continues. Here in Austin we've blown today's record high of 77 out of the water. It's 84 at the airport and 79 at Camp Mabry at 2 pm. Temps may go higher. This will be the second day in the last week where we've set new record high temps.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile, the unseasonable warmth continues. Here in Austin we've blown today's record high of 77 out of the water. It's 84 at the airport and 79 at Camp Mabry at 2 pm. Temps may go higher. This will be the second day in the last week where we've set new record high temps.

Exceptional warmth has been unreal since Christmas. Makes you wonder if we could see temp swings at some point like 1996.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah it is too warm. I am wearing shorts, t-shirt, and sandals this afternoon. Yuck. I really hope all this verifies and has staying power.

[weatherdude1108]

GFS is very cold even down to the coast next Thursday a hint of frozen precip appears from Austin to Houston

Oh yeah ... this 12z GFS run is much colder than the 6z and 0z for late next week. Austin low temps next Friday would be in low to mid 20s. Earlier runs had upper 20s to near 30.

We have already gotten down to 21 here with that last Arctic outbreak. Bring it on! I'm tired of wearing shorts and tshirts in late December.

[TheAustinMan]

Here is (my drawing) of the 12z Euro output for the winter storm at 228 hours.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Seeing some of these runs of the GFS and the Euro kind of peaked my interest.

I've been lurking though the fog and muck here on the coast.

Time for old man winter to come in with a bang!

[TheProfessor]

I am interested in seeing the next two Euro runs(if it keeps the storm) and seeing if it has only one storm, or if it has split energies like the GFS does. There have been 2 other times(when I was in Ohio) where one model showed the energies being split while the other model showed one phased storm. Each time the split energy outcome won out. The first time this happened sucked, the southern energy was way too fast and it gave me rain, the northern energy was too weak so all we got was cold air. However, the 2nd time it happened gave us our max potential of snow, since the main storm cut west of us we were going to see WAA, we got 2 inches of snow before the WAA arrived but it all melted. Had it been one phased storm, WAA would have been worse and we likely would have only seen rain. But, since the storm had split energies, the 2nd one arrived after cold settled in and we ended up getting an overproducing storm that dropped 4-5 inches of snow. In our case here though, if the Storm were to go south of us like currently modeled, we would want a phased negative tilt storm that could pull in the cold air and wrap overflowing moisture instead of 2 weaker un-phased storms.

[Texas Snowman]

Exceptional warmth has been unreal since Christmas. Makes you wonder if we could see temp swings at some point like 1996.

I think any and all Dallas Cowboys fans will like the mention of 1996.

Right after Troy, Emmitt, Michael and Jay won Super Bowl XXX over Pittsburgh on Jan. 28, 1996, the gates to the arctic tundra opened up if memory serves correct.

[Ntxw]

yes

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: yes

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance

GFS agrees as well, it really opens the Siberian gates over to North America, flooding Canada with incredibly anomalous cold...check out the Yukon, greater than -50 F in some areas. Just look at the streak coming out of the Arctic circle, this could go to the extreme option for the lower 48

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: yes

Euro ensembles are still clustering strong anomalous ridging through the end of their run. Higher heights dominate North America. Look for more arctic fronts once they get into range of the OP guidance

GFS agrees as well, it really opens the Siberian gates over to North America, flooding Canada with incredibly anomalous cold...check out the Yukon, greater than -50 F in some areas. Just look at the streak coming out of the Arctic circle, this could go to the extreme option for the lower 48

Yeah, mid next week is not yet cross polar flow but cold enough for sub freezing days. It is the days to a week after that the real cross flow happens and Siberian air settles in. Basically December option but January.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Wxman 57 has been strangely silent. Is he booking a short notice trip to the equator?

[ronyan]

Wxman 57 has been strangely silent. Is he booking a short notice trip to the equator?

He's probably out enjoying the warmth now while he has the chance. He did say the other day that he wasn't optimistic about where this is heading.

[TheAustinMan]

Ooh... snow in Austin? What's that? (18z GFS)

[Brent]

6 inches of snow in San Antonio on the gfs haha

[Portastorm]

Oh ye of little faith.

[Ntxw]

It will be freezing drizzle..book it. Really hope it happens, no one deserves snow more than central Texas. Long drought

[Portastorm]

upload a picture

[aggiecutter]

That is the storm I have been waiting on. It's not matter of if, but when, as the pattern is ripe for it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.