ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

uugghh only 2 passes...

[supercane4867]

not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..

Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message

Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM

[hurricaneCW]

not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..

Dry air won't get pulled in when the shear is low over the storm especially for larger storms. Microwave imagery shows a pretty clear EWRC with a partial inner wall.

I think the timing of these cycles will be everything regarding Flo's LF intensity. It's hard to justify a Cat 4 landfall above 30N. I think a low to mid 3 is more likely, however the surge could easily be a category higher.

[TxDisasterHorn]

How concerned should western shore of Maryland be?

[Hurricaneman]

Will finish the ewrc before morning, looks as though this is going to be a cat 5 sometime tomorrow IMO

[EquusStorm]

I dunno how scientific it is but these days I always expect to see an ERC after an initial bout of RI like that; it just kinda feels like it makes the core structurally unstable winding up so fast and the storm tries to regulate itself a bit. Not always immediately the case though, proved by Irma, Patricia, etc

[MacTavish]

not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..

Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message

Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM

Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like Florence is shedding some of her banding

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like Florence is shedding some of her banding

Peripheral dry air?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message

Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM

Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.

yeah, I saw no double wind maxima. and the microwave passes are not enough. A small amount of dry air could also cause the same convective pattern.

either way it looks temporary.


satellite imagery also showing signs of dry air and not a ERC>

[FLpanhandle91]

Wonder how the timing of this EWRC will lineup with landfall in regards to the next one.

[supercane4867]

Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message

Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM

Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.

When a TC undergoes EWRC, it tends to look somewhat shriveled due to decrease in convection and banding, but that does not indicate a dry air intrusion since no shear is present.

The structure evolution of Flo has been well-predicated by HWRF, which expects her to attain the annular look by tommorrow once the EWRC is finished.

[TheStormExpert]

Florence looks to be shrinking in size somewhat. Is this due to the EWRC?

[cheezyWXguy]

not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..

It looks like one to me, based on that microwave image posted above. Dry air could have instigated the erc to begin in the first place though.

[TheStormExpert]

Florence also has yet to pass over the warmest SST's of its lifetime.

[StormPyrate]

Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?

New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW

[Aric Dunn]

Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM

Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.

When a TC undergoes EWRC, it tends to look somewhat shriveled due to decrease in convection and banding, but that does not indicate a dry air intrusion since no shear is present.

The structure evolution of Flo has been well-predicated by HWRF, which expects her to attain the annular look by tommorrow once the EWRC is finished.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QiyerWy.png[/im]

You dont always need shear for pockets of dry air to get pulled in.

also no double wind maximum or any sign of it.. all you have is a microwave image.

so it is highly unlikely an ERC. especially this early. the eye diameter also was not shrinking per last recon.

points to a small pocket of Dry air..

[Extratropical94]

Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?

New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW

Yes.

[PavelGaborik10]

Florence looks to be shrinking in size somewhat. Is this due to the EWRC?

I will say, I've been following these storms for quite some time and I'm not accustomed to seeing an EWRC warm cloud tops that rapidly too often. Incredibly how fast she's been cut down.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?

New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW

"F (FOXTROT)

Describe the attributes of the center if at least 50 percent has an eyewall, otherwise enter NA.
Closed wall--if the center has 100 percent coverage with no eyewall weakness.
Open XX--if the center has 50 percent or more but less than 100 percent coverage. State the direction of the eyewall weakness.
Spiral band—report item GOLF with the best approximation of the shape/diameter of the inner core."

From PDF page 146 in the National Hurricane Operations Plan:
https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/nhop2.htm