#2226 Postby typhoonty » Sat Jul 03, 2021 4:39 pm
wxman57 wrote:typhoonty wrote:wxman57 wrote:Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.
I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.
When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.
Thanks, typhoonty. I'll let y'all know when I have a real concern, like the week before the big freeze this past February. I may be the Heat Miser, but I know a cold pattern when I see one. Look me up when you finish up your degree. We may have an opening on the tropical team, if you'd like to forecast TCs. I've been forecasting TCs around the world since 1980, my 42nd year. I used to be like many on the board here, anxious for something big to develop. Now, I would like to have a season with zero storms at all. Would be fine with me. I've dealt with those who have been severely impacted by TCs for decades. Here's hoping that Elsa is the last storm of the season...
By the way, I was joking about Elsa opening up into a wave. Thought I might rattle a few cages. It is an interesting wind field, though.
I know what you mean, what really got me interested in tropical meteorology was Charley's hook right into my area. So many people were caught off guard even though we were in the cone. I wanted to learn why there was an error in intensity and track and do everything possible to prevent that from happening again.
Most of the locals here were surprised that we got higher storm surge from Eta than Irma. The track forecast moving due north so close to the coast is concerning from an areal extent of potential storm surge. Though I doubt Elsa will get stronger than 50 kts on the north side of Cuba, storms moving northeast with the flow of potential shear tends to be less hostile than the magnitude of shear would suggest. And since shear is going to be somewhat more favorable north of Cuba, I hope it gets significant enough land interaction/core disruption to preclude any sudden intensification episodes like what happened on Friday.
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FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 20 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
Gabrielle '01, Michelle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Dennis '05, Katrina '05, Rita '05, Wilma '05, Fay '08, Isaac '12 Hermine '16, Irma '17, Michael '18, Eta '20, Elsa '21, IAN '22, Idalia '23, Debby '24, Helene '24
