NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

I have never seen radial and toroidal gravity waves simultaneously.
Perfect symmetry.
Absolutely deadly.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

A nice still shot of it

 https://x.com/spann/status/1983137018671460713

[Beef Stew]

Any estimates for what recon will find? I think Melissa might've intensified very slightly in the hour after the previous recon left with a peak intensity in the 898 - 901 mb range. Some eyewall changes happened afterwards which might've induced slight weakening. Right now I think it's stable or very slowly intensifying in the 905 - 908 mb range. So my guess is 906mb/145kt.

I'm thinking something very similar- I'd say 908mb 145kts, but with I don't think the intensity will be lowered from 150kts at this point

[mrbagyo]

I expect the radar echo of the eyewall ring to thicken as it near the coast in response to some frictional convergence - just like what happened to Mangkhut in 2018

[syfr]

Definite ENE motion now.

Kingston looks like it's in for a rough ride.

[grapealcoholic]

recon <150 miles away

35 mins or so

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Just woke up, reviewed what happened over the last few hours, and it just reminds me more and more why I hate it when there’s no plane in the storm. She’s looking incredible, and if I had to take a guess has likely been stronger over the last few hours, but we might not know it’s actual strength if the plane doesn’t get there in time.

There is a plane in the storm. First eye pass shortly.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/yangyubin1998/status/1983137704037757105

[Hurricane Mike]

8am Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4H5z1W8-TY

[cycloneye]

This is me on X.

 https://x.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1983132979489599509

[jlauderdal]

Definite ENE motion now.

Kingston looks like it's in for a rough ride.

These big systems like to lean right, don't think Kingston gets the eyewall but ricks cafe feeling better.

[ronjon]

Lightning intensifying around eyewall as it approaches coast. This tells me Melissa may still be deepening.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1983066064541077587


 https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1983146187902595352

[grapealcoholic]

[prediction]
892 first pass

[sbcc]

I have never seen radial and toroidal gravity waves simultaneously.
Perfect symmetry.
Absolutely deadly.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

I saved that 24 frame loop. Breathtaking. Thanks for posting it.

[Chemmers]

[prediction]
892 first pass

Think i will go for 889

[chris_fit]

Not having much luck trying to find a live stream of Webcam and/or Chasers near the Western/Central part of Jamaica - anyone got anything?

[ATDoel]

[prediction]
892 first pass

Think i will go for 889

I'm going to say the final advisory before the Jamaican landfall is 895 @ 185 mph. The forward velocity is going to add to the max wind speed, wind speeds haven't been measured since the storm started moving at a decent speed.

[StormPyrate]

Not having much luck trying to find a live stream of Webcam and/or Chasers near the Western/Central part of Jamaica - anyone got anything?

Bryce Shelton, but I cannot find his stream on tube, he is in mandeval

[Sunnydays]

Not having much luck trying to find a live stream of Webcam and/or Chasers near the Western/Central part of Jamaica - anyone got anything?

Not sure if they are showing any videos...but they are live and speaking to officials and reporting from citizens calling in to the station.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nEVRorNT7s

[michelinj]

I think she'd have gained a few mb this morning during eyewall merger, maybe up to 905ish. My guess will be 896 from the plane, good for 899/900 from the dropsonde.