ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ROCK]

Have to agree with the majority on this one. Looks better organized now than its entire life. Though shear is still inhibiting developement, its supposed to lighten up. Not liking those model runs. Heat content in the GOM is high....yes I know it not the only factor....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[HURAKAN]

[Innotech]

if you look at dvorak, it looks like the convection is converging in the middle of the two formerly separate areas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think that "wall" is basically the wave axis itself, and all the storms forming along it are being sheared back to the South and East.


Not positive of that, but it doesn't have the 'look' of an organizing system.



Maybe tomorrow or Saturday.

[Innotech]

I think that "wall" is basically the wave axis itself, and all the storms forming along it are being sheared back to the South and East.


Not positive of that, but it doesn't have the 'look' of an organizing system.



Maybe tomorrow or Saturday.

it has the look of a stable system waiting for slightly improved conditions.

[ROCK]

got to hand it to you...always enjoy your maps....

[cheezyWXguy]

I think that "wall" is basically the wave axis itself, and all the storms forming along it are being sheared back to the South and East.


Not positive of that, but it doesn't have the 'look' of an organizing system.



Maybe tomorrow or Saturday.

Actually, I believe it is the outflow boundary that was leading the storm all day. It has been tracking ahead of the system and convection all day, and now convection has caught up to it. Personally I see an organizing system that is being inhibited by shear...the shear will decrease and the storm may organize further. This thing has taken some surprising twists the last couple of days though, so nothing is for sure.

[Innotech]

thats what I see too. the way convection seems to be stable and even gathering towards a central point (with very deep convection over the past couple frames) I think it may be very much trying to organize.

[cycloneye]

If outer bands are reaching Puerto Rico tonight,that is far away from the center of the wave,then something is going on with the system that is causing the outer bands to go very far.

[txag2005]

On the Cancun comments, I guess I should be more clear. I'm actually going to be about 45 mins-1 hour south of Cancun at a mega resort known as a evacuation location for many of the smaller/older ones that can't withstand the winds.

Since my flight leaves in the morning, it would be stupid to cancel as its not even a storm even if it seems to be forming.

Any ideas? I guess I'm just concerned

[ROCK]

I think that "wall" is basically the wave axis itself, and all the storms forming along it are being sheared back to the South and East.


Not positive of that, but it doesn't have the 'look' of an organizing system.



Maybe tomorrow or Saturday.

Actually, I believe it is the outflow boundary that was leading the storm all day. It has been tracking ahead of the system and convection all day, and now convection has caught up to it. Personally I see an organizing system that is being inhibited by shear...the shear will decrease and the storm may organize further. This thing has taken some surprising twists the last couple of days though, so nothing is for sure.

I agree with the north outflow boundary leading the storm. Saw it earlier spit out during the day. thought it would have fizzled by now though....

[ROCK]

On the Cancun comments, I guess I should be more clear. I'm actually going to be about 45 mins-1 hour south of Cancun at a mega resort known as a evacuation location for many of the smaller/older ones that can't withstand the winds.

Since my flight leaves in the morning, it would be stupid to cancel as its not even a storm even if it seems to be forming.

Any ideas? I guess I'm just concerned

you answered your question.... Go and be alert to the possiblity. If possible leave early if danger is imminent. Simple as that. Also try to enjoy yourself. I am sure they will have TWC to watch....

[Innotech]

If I was going to Cancun right now, no way this invest would stop my plans.

[Sanibel]

Now that it has deeper convection the circulation has become less apparent.

I think if it lifts north it will spin up once 95L clears the way.

[HURAKAN]

The last thing I will say before going to sleep is that tonight 94L is mantaining more convection than any of the last few days put combined. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

[Smurfwicked]

if you look at dvorak, it looks like the convection is converging in the middle of the two formerly separate areas.

That is what I'm seeing too. The latest loops look to me like its beginning to take a more WNW path.

[NDG]

The last thing I will say before going to sleep is that tonight 94L is mantaining more convection than any of the last few days put combined. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

I agree, especially near WNW moving closed broad low center that was found earlier this evening, which by the way it was moving I place it now close to 14N & 69.1W

[ROCK]

The last thing I will say before going to sleep is that tonight 94L is mantaining more convection than any of the last few days put combined. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

I agree, especially near WNW moving closed broad low center that was found earlier this evening, which by the way it was moving I place it now close to 14N & 69.1W

0z GFS rolling in the model thread....GOM bound once again.....

[Sanibel]

A sharp eye will see the present red convection dot is moving steadily along over a center without receding. A sure sign of development.

[StormTracker]

Alright, let's all say it together>>>RI(rapid intensification)!!! It's coming!!! Maan, this is a scary sight for the middle of July!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html