Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Jason_B]

It's the NAM...not gonna happen.

[Ivanhater]

It's the NAM...not gonna happen.

Lol ok, so I guess it wasnt going to happen when all the other runs were showing SW Florida?

[caneman]

It's the NAM...not gonna happen.

Lol ok, so I guess it wasnt going to happen when all the other runs were showing SW Florida?

No I wouldn't have paid attention to it because it was the NAM. GFS, CMC and UKMET seem to be outperforming the much heralded GFDL which is all over the place.

[sunny]

A pro met I know out of the UK thinks the threat is going to be the to Panhandle (he's been saying this for a couple of days now).

[Ivanhater]

78 Hours...

[dizzyfish]

That is quite the shift left! I had a feeling that would happen.

Does anyone think that it may shift to the right again?

This changes my prep plans a little now. #$%@%@

[Ivanhater]

End of the NAM

[Jason_B]

Can't see the NAM coming close to verifying with a trough blocking the panhandle.

[karenfromheaven]

66 hours..ugh!

Take a deep breath my friend, and think. Each of us have to make an individual decision on how to react to the best information we have available to us. Only you can know what your comfort level is, and only you can decide what is best for you at this point in time. I would say yes, there is a possibility, though small, that Fay could come your way as a major storm. If your reading of the models and the wonderful information here on Storm2K convinces you there is danger, then by all means proceed with your storm plan. I'll be the first to support you. There is no shame in taking action on your beliefs and having the storm not come. And if it does come, you look like a genius. The hard thing about making educated guesses about these big storms, is that in a low probability situation like you face, the price of guessing wrong is huge should the low probability event occur. I'm not sure of your situation, but there is still some time. So keep reading and posting, and if it gets too uncomfortable, take action. You'll feel better for it.

Crap, I see I'm now back in the cone.

Karen

[HurryKane]

It is strange - I don't remember seeing the NHC so far away from the guidance models before. They are really way to the right.

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

[sunny]

It is strange - I don't remember seeing the NHC so far away from the guidance models before. They are really way to the right.

Oh, I do--on August 25, 2005. The models were clustered over MS/LA and the NHC still had a central FL Panhandle hit. Not necessarily saying this is the same but the models setup is enough to spook a few of us.

Indeed it is!

[Jason_B]

Fortunately this is a different setup from Katrina and really no threat to anybody west of Florida.

[PTrackerLA]

The revised NHC track still seems to be on the eastern edge of model guidance, hmmm....

[ROCK]

Fortunately this is a different setup from Katrina and really no threat to anybody west of Florida.

Well the cone right now says FL so in that respect you would be right, for now. However guidance is beginning to spread out once again because of the current motion, which given how weak Fay remains I can see why.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


I wouldnt discount anybody west of FL just yet.

[Aric Dunn]

this about the greatest model ever right now .. i love it.. a week of rain and wind lol

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Jason_B]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The more reliable models though have a pretty good consensus over the Big Bend/northern peninsula and have not dramatically swayed over the past few days...I think it's safe to say Apalachicola to Ft. Myers is the real deal...the few outliers will raise a few eyebrows but will not verify.

[Steve]

>>Can't see the NAM coming close to verifying with a trough blocking the panhandle.

Not sure how a trough would block the panhandle unless the flow around the eastern side of it was to the NE/NNE or whatever and was really dug in to the system's west. Usually it's the highs (sometimes ushered in by troughs) that would serve as that block. Tropical Storms, waves and Depressesions can bust a shear zone as they do it all the time. Sometimes in the Atlantic they even get absorbed into a larger upper low with the transfer of energy making quite the strong nor'easters. You never know. I haven't looked at anything today because I've been a farmer, pool cleaner and now a chef. Lot of coffee (ugh). But we'll see. I'm still sticking with my more easterly threat. I'll lie on the grenade and blow up with that forecast if necessary.

Steve

[ronjon]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC track keeps shifting west over the next few cycles. The models have been shifting west all day today and I wouldn't rule out the entire FL panhandle at this point. It appears that the atlantic ridge will be building in stronger and that the shortwave trough will pass by Fay as shes in the SE GOM. With the ridge to guide steering, that ususally means a slow N-NW path. The 12Z global models had a good sampling of the upper air environment. Have to watch the model trends next 24 hrs. Boy, when was the last time you saw such spread in model tracks for a 48-72 hr track projection? I'm amazed at how much spread we see in them.

[Jason_B]

If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.

[sunny]

If Fay continues on a wnw track tonight and the models continue to shift west than I might consider it, but like I said this has been the story everyday now....shifts west then east then west etc and between all those shifts is SW/central Florida.

What is it you would consider? I don't understand what you mean by that.