ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Are the models good at forecasting the size of the storm? Has Florence grown since it lost its core? It was a fairly small compact hurricane. If that is the characteristic of this storm, it could ramp up to Cat 5 very quickly but also have a much limited impact. There are fairly large sections of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast with low population densities. It's not built up like Florida. If it hits a lucky spot as a compact storm, it could have limited impacts.

I believe models are showing it growing in size. One model has a 70 mile wide eye. Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and Wilmington area have decent population sizes. The coasts have grown a lot since I was young. Impacts would be bad. Look at how much damage Fran caused as a low end cat 3 into the Wilmington area.

[p1nheadlarry]

12z GFS has a 917mb hurricane drifting SW off the coast by 192 hours. I'm sorry, but I seriously don't buy it.

Not just that, but after arriving at 943, stalling a bit looping and dropping to 917. You got the labrador current there and lots of baroclinic instability in the ocean, upwelling much?

With the flow out there, the current underneath moves at a good pace, shouldn't have much upwelling.

Even with the labrador current? Surely some mixing is going on, even if the warm water flux is higher.

[drewschmaltz]

9/8/18 12z 024

[artist]

Not just that, but after arriving at 943, stalling a bit looping and dropping to 917. You got the labrador current there and lots of baroclinic instability in the ocean, upwelling much?

With the flow out there, the current underneath moves at a good pace, shouldn't have much upwelling.

Even with the labrador current? Surely some mixing is going on, even if the warm water flux is higher.

Do you mean the mixing of the Labrador current with the Gulf Stream?

[sunnyday]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

[boulderrr]

ECMWF is slower at 24 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

From the NHC 11am Discussion...."After 36 hours,
the most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in
the 06Z GFS. However, that run appears to be an outlier from the
rest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight
westward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids. The updated NHC
track forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5."

I'd stick closer to what the FSSE and the HCCA are doing in regards to Florence rather than single or couple runs of the GFS or any other one model. They are going to windshield wiper this far out to a degree, apparently the GFS is going to wipe clean off the windshield!

[psyclone]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

yes

[Blown Away]

ECMWF is slower at 24 hours.

A hair S of due W

[meriland29]

Out of curiosity, would it be a slower or faster moving storm that would push it more westward as opposed to GFSs Neastward curve?

[Dean4Storms]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

I've not seen any guidance targeting South Florida, no means of any ensemble nor operational run of any model. Think they are out of this one but would still pay attention.

[HurricaneEric]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

For the most part, yes. A few outliers on model ensembles have gone that far south but they’ve typically been A LOT weaker. Of course if the SW shifts keep happening SFL may end up on the extreme left side of the cone. The likeliest targets remain N. FL to N. Carolina.

[DelrayMorris]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

Yes, but we should still keep an eye on it, until it goes away. Of course, Jeanne 2004 basically messed up that rule!

[drewschmaltz]

9/8/18 12z 048

[toad strangler]

So do most of the models seem to be leaving Fla, esp the southern part, out of the danger zone at this point?

I've not seen any guidance targeting South Florida, no means of any ensemble nor operational run of any model. Think they are out of this one but would still pay attention.

There were several ensembles over the last 24 hours running through S FL. Although not 6z or 12z runs today. Trend is to the N for now.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is way south heading WNW nearing the Bahamas

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF/Euro through 48 hours... Decent WNW turn between 24-48 hrs... Euro caving in the GFS???

[otowntiger]

9/8/18 12z 024

Im pretty sure Euro will shift north and east as well, just not as much as GFS. I think at this point large shifts in the official track are not going to happen. I may be wrong but I think NHC has gotten so good at track this close in that there won’t be that much of a shift one way or the other and the Euro Is a big influence.

[PandaCitrus]

WNW at 48 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

Euro showing Florence much stronger are 48hrs than the previous 12z. I definitely expect an east shift this run but we'll see.