ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Recon shows that Beryl is slowly intensifying again.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1808655121745666297

[jlauderdal]

Here are 30 frames of radar I saved that shows Beryl's core has largely remained intact as it passed just to the south of Jamaica:

These systems work hard to stay off the south shore. This isnt the first time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It doesn't look as good on the satellite as it did a couple of hours ago, but it is getting further from land

[Nederlander]

It doesn't look as good on the satellite as it did a couple of hours ago, but it is getting further from land

DMIN

[Xyls]

Beryl increasingly looking a mess. Storm definitely looking heavily sheared now and I'm pretty sure it's going to lose a lot of strength by tomorrow when I wake up. Hopefully, the impacts to Jamaica are not as bad as expected.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Likely will see a significant weakening phase tomorrow IMO. Down to a 2 at least.

[Travorum]

As mentioned in the 11pm NHC discussion, tail doppler radar suggests an increasing amount of vertical tilt:

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's in range of Cayman Islands radar now, best way for us to look at the inner structure now (recon aside.) Northern eyewall remains most potent part, the southern half very degraded

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[Blown Away]

For the past day Beryl on the IR is the ugliest Cat 3/4 I’ve ever seen… JMHO

[chaser1]

I can't get over how this hurricane must have as many lives as a cat Beryl is a freak of nature.

[IcyTundra]

NHC stays with 115 kts for the 11PM advisory.

[Craters]

As mentioned in the 11pm NHC discussion, tail doppler radar suggests an increasing amount of vertical tilt:
https://i.imgur.com/ylv2w67.png

That's consistent with the direction of the shear in the LWIR loop. I also could be convinced very easily that ingestion of dry air has been stifling convection

[Teban54]

A bit of old news, but the eyewall is "finally" open again:

515
URNT12 KNHC 040137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 04/01:07:20Z
B. 17.93 deg N 078.67 deg W
C. 700 mb 2814 m
D. 963 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN SW
G. C24
H. 78 kt
I. 207 deg 7 nm 01:05:30Z
J. 277 deg 77 kt
K. 204 deg 5 nm 01:06:00Z
L. 120 kt
M. 031 deg 9 nm 01:10:00Z
N. 133 deg 127 kt
O. 031 deg 9 nm 01:10:00Z
P. 20 C / 3050 m
Q. 22 C / 3038 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.25 nm
U. AF300 1702A BERYL OB 14
MAX FL WIND 127 KT 031 / 9 NM 01:10:00Z
;

And yet:

The crews on board also reported that there was significant
turbulence in the northern eyewall.

Edit: Just after the post, a new VDM arrived:

679
URNT12 KNHC 040319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 04/02:47:20Z
B. 18.05 deg N 079.19 deg W
C. 700 mb 2820 m
D. 965 mb
E. 110 deg 25 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C24
H. 118 kt
I. 345 deg 7 nm 02:45:30Z
J. 085 deg 117 kt
K. 347 deg 10 nm 02:44:30Z
L. 76 kt
M. 140 deg 7 nm 02:49:30Z
N. 230 deg 88 kt
O. 140 deg 7 nm 02:49:30Z
P. 7 C / 3032 m
Q. 22 C / 3032 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.25 nm
U. AF300 1702A BERYL OB 22
MAX FL WIND 127 KT 031 / 9 NM 01:10:00Z
;

[cheezyWXguy]

Anyone recall an uglier hurricane that was capable of producing 127kt FL winds?

[tropicwatch]

Not sure why they went with 965mb in the latest vortex message.

[weeniepatrol]

Anyone recall an uglier hurricane that was capable of producing 127kt FL winds?

Earl 1998, albeit only an 85 kt category 2, has to be close.





Also, Jeanne 1980. Also assessed as 85 kt at the time of this image.



I'm gonna be sick...

[UTSARoadrunner4]

She’s in that shear area. The next day or so will be pretty telling of its future intensity in the Gulf.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1808712837683872230