SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Jagno]

I feel fairly confident that we are no longer in a drought however if this rain keeps up we may very well be a wetland. I've given up on trying to get my mulch down with these terrible winds as well.


2 products issued by NWS for: Lake Charles LA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CDT WED APR 8 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-091015-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
512 AM CDT WED APR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TWO VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEMS ADVANCE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lake Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION TOMORROW.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-091200-
/O.CON.KLCH.LW.Y.0017.090409T1400Z-090409T2300Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
944 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

[srainhoutx]

Latest SPC Outlook Day 4 continues to advertise an active weather day across SETX/SW LA on Easter Sunday. Latest Day 3 has a Slight Risk in the TX Hill Country. Many folks have outdoor plans this weekend and should keep informed of the latest changes as the event gets a bit closer...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU APR 09 2009

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND
BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPR TROUGHS.
00Z ECMWF IS STILL PREFERRED WITH A WEAKER AND MORE NRN
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW NEWD FROM SERN OK INTO MO ON SUNDAY.
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE TX GULF CST AND INTO THE
LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND/OR THE UPR CST OF TX
EARLY SUNDAY AND THE SABINE VLY-CNTRL/SRN LA/SRN MS LATER SUNDAY.
MCS THAT GENERATES ACROSS CNTRL TX SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY THRIVE
WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FOLLOWING THE MARINE FRONT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SABINE RVR VLY AND PSBLY AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. HIGH WINDS...HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PROGRESS NEWD TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY A LESSER THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE TREND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WCOAST AND DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLATEAU/PLNS AS
CLOSED LOWS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...MODELS PORTRAY A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW PREDICTABILITY AT DAYS 5-8.

..RACY.. 04/09/2009

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[southerngale]

I hate it when it rains on Easter.

It was beautiful on Easter last year, but in 2007 it rained a lot and was very cold.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z GFS suggests rain a good part of Easter, starting in the morning and lasting into the afternoon.


The good news, except for it being a holiday, GFS shows widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts on Sunday.

The bad news, looks semi-favorable for a few strong storms, even without a whole lot of daytime heating.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 607 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GIDDINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice anvil at sunset, lightning, a few rain drops, but the storm fizzled fast.

[srainhoutx]

Nice anvil at sunset, lightning, a few rain drops, but the storm fizzled fast.

Nice downpour and lots of lightening. Nothing severe and enjoyed the evening after it passed.

[srainhoutx]

HGX morning AFD awaiting future guidance before jumping on the severe potential too much...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ALONG A SHERMAN TO STEPHENVILLE TO
ABILENE LINE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH BY NOON AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE A
BIT TRICKY DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING BUT WILL TRIM A FEW DEGREES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THAT AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO GET A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION WILL BE FIGHTING A SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION SO
WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND PW`S APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. A STUBBORN CAPPING
INVERSION WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS ON SATURDAY. IF CAPPING
IS WEAKER PER THE GFS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SURFACE
STREAMLINES SHOW DECENT CONVERGENCE SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPEED CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IN PLACE. A VORT
MAX WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SO THINK A ROUND OF STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT BY 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE LOADED AS PW`S APPROACH 1.9 INCHES...K INDEX IN THE LOWER 40S
AND TT IN THE LOWER 50S. CAPE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL
BETWEEN 1000-2000. SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH HELICITY
VALUES OVER 500 AROUND 18Z. ONLY ONE PARAMETER SEEMS OUT OF PHASE
AND THAT IS A SPEED MAX WHICH APPEARS TO BE PLACING THE AREA IN A
RIGHT FRONT QUAD VS THE FAVORED LEFT FRONT. NAM IS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SPEED MAX WHICH PLACES SE TEXAS IN MORE OF
A LFQ. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES BUT WILL BEEF UP
WORDING IN THE HWO. PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON EASTER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE
AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

[jasons2k]

Difficult call for Sunday. It could go either way and we've seen this before. There's always a chance that the morning convection will stabilize things such that we don't see much (or any) afternoon action. But if it moves out and we get some decent heating --> showtime.

[southerngale]

NWS Lake Charles doesn't mention severe in the forecast (70% thunderstorms for Sunday & Sunday night here), but says this in the overnight AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

<snippet>
FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED ENTIRE AREA UNDER DAY 3 SLIGHT. SPC NOTING THAT AN UPGRADE
TO MODERATE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TORNADOES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.





Edit: Oh, just read through a few more AFD's. I see why there's no mention of severe in the actual forecast. If they add it, it will be done today.

This is from yesterday afternoon's AFD:
...AS STORM SYSTEM NUMBER TWO BARRELS THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LOOK QUITE THREATENING IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 70
PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE...AND IF THIS PERSISTS
TOMORROW...WILL INCLUDE EXPLICIT SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has trimmed back on rainfall for area to between a quarter and half an inch, which is disappointing.

Looks like I-10 roughly the Southern limit of Sunday severe around here.


Double Post Alert
from Severe Easter Weekend thread...


Looks like 12Z and new 0Z GFS fairly consistent on timing, location and strength of 500 mb features.


12Z


New 0Z


Assuming storms between 18Z and a little after 0Z on Sunday, near peak heating, are strongest (not always safe) Northeast Texas to Western Tennessee should be Sunday's main severe area.

AccuWx PPV rapid update SBCape, Total Totals and Sweat Index seem to suggest best severe a bit South of heaviest precip, maybe as far South as HOU area, which will be near Southern extent of precipitation shield, at 18Z, and extending Eastward and Northeastward during the afternoon.

We needed the rain, GFS now has HOU area between .25 and .5 inches of rain total this weekend.

[southerngale]

Ed, are you still in the mild drought area? (although I know the map isn't completely accurate) We don't need the rain here as we have gotten plenty with the last several systems. Not that it would hurt though, but with it falling on Easter, there would be lots of happy children if it didn't ruin hunting Easter eggs and other outdoor activities. If it would just wait until Monday, I'd be all for it. I hate to see it rain on Easter.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, are you still in the mild drought area? (although I know the map isn't completely accurate) We don't need the rain here as we have gotten plenty with the last several systems. Not that it would hurt though, but with it falling on Easter, there would be lots of happy children if it didn't ruin hunting Easter eggs and other outdoor activities. If it would just wait until Monday, I'd be all for it. I hate to see it rain on Easter.

Eyeballing, my part of Harris County is just outside 'Moderate Drought', and in 'Abnormally Dry'.



We doing our Easter egg hunt party tomorrow, and while I was actually hoping for some serious rain, I won't mind not getting soaked going tp/coming from Mass Sunday morning as suggested by earlier model runs.

[southerngale]

Ah, ok. I hadn't looked at the map well enough to see that Harris County was still in it. I just glanced at it when it came out. I wish we could do ours tomorrow as well since the weather should be good, but everyone can't get together until Sunday. Ah well, what can ya do?

[JenBayles]

While we're snug at home here in Houston, many of our biker friends are out in the Hill Country this weekend. Plan to return here from Bandera in the morning. Knowing these knuckleheads, they'll be too hungover to check the weather before departure time around 9:00 a.m.

I'll be sending a weather update text to the road cap'n tonight. Right now, I'm thinking they'll be better off taking Alt. US 90 that runs south of I-10. Any agreement or disagreement with that advice at this time?

[srainhoutx]

Going to be tough, espcially tonight/tomorrow morning in the Hill Country. Here is what HGX thinks tonight...snipet for the rough weather...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DRAPING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND
WEST OF OUR CWFA WITH WEAK SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR DURING THIS EVENT. PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.9 INCHES. CAPES MAY RUN FROM ABOUT 1500-200
J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONG. UPPER FLOW AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
WILL STRONGLY DIFFLUENT WITH JET CORE RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. WE CONTINUED TO MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
ZFP FOR TOMORROW WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHERN ZONES. HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF CWFA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEM BY SUNDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE TRACKING BEHIND AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY ALBEIT WITH NO ASSOCIATED WEATHER.

EWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
245 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDERWAY ABOVE THE COOL SHALLOW REMNANTS
OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG HEATING TAKING PLACE IN THE CLEAR SKIES
OF A DRY SLOT OUT WEST OVER NRN MEXICO/BIG BEND REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
APPEARS SOME DUST BEING PICKED UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
NEAR EL PASO ALONG WITH DEVELOPING HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST TX. WILL SEE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE IN WEST TX THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH PROGRESSION OF AN LINEAR MCS INTO WEST- CENTRAL TX THE SRN
END OF OF WHICH WILL SKIRT AND BACK-BUILD INTO THE THE NW/NRN CWA
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE 18Z RUC ALSO INDICATES A
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND TRACKING
TOWARD RIO GRANDE AND OUR SWRN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION THE
POSSIBLE SEVERE FOR ALL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE FAR SWRN COUNTIES.
MAIN THREAT FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED EARLY ON. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE EVENT AS STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND EASTER MORNING.
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTION TO BE EAST OF I35 BY
NOON SUNDAY AND EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON.

[JenBayles]

Hmmm... methinks our intrepid travelers may need to stay put for another night. It doesn't appear that this will be a one-squall event they can either race ahead of or follow along behind. If the timing of that last paragraph is correct, they won't be able to depart until well after noon. Then they'll likely catch up to the worst of the weather the closer they get to Houston.

Is my assessment fairly on point that it's going to be fairly solid rain with embedded severe storms between I-35 and I-45, along and north of I-10 from noon until well after dark?

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm... methinks our intrepid travelers may need to stay put for another night. It doesn't appear that this will be a one-squall event they can either race ahead of or follow along behind. If the timing of that last paragraph is correct, they won't be able to depart until well after noon. Then they'll likely catch up to the worst of the weather the closer they get to Houston.

Is my assessment fairly on point that it's going to be fairly solid rain with embedded severe storms between I-35 and I-45, along and north of I-10 from noon until well after dark?

That's how I would handle it. It will be rough in the Hill Country overnight, but there are some signs that some drier air will move in behind the MCS that will form near the Concho Valley and spread E. The MCS (if it forms) may tend to knock down development along the dryline, but still too soon to call IMHO. Model guidance is having a bit of trouble with the storm track, but the dynamics will be in place for a active event. Good Luck Jen. Just my $0.02 worth.

[vbhoutex]

While we're snug at home here in Houston, many of our biker friends are out in the Hill Country this weekend. Plan to return here from Bandera in the morning. Knowing these knuckleheads, they'll be too hungover to check the weather before departure time around 9:00 a.m.

I'll be sending a weather update text to the road cap'n tonight. Right now, I'm thinking they'll be better off taking Alt. US 90 that runs south of I-10. Any agreement or disagreement with that advice at this time?

Based on the Austin/SA and HGX forecasts posted It sounds like that would be a good alternative. Otherwise it sounds like srainhoutx has it right on the timing and what might happen.

Just got off the phone with my son at Lake Sommerville and they are trying to get back before storms move in. I'll have to check things out in the am and call with report if needed. Right now it sounds like they may be out ahead of it.

[JenBayles]

Thanks srain - Your $0.02 is worth a heckuvalot more than mine.

I'm sending the concerned parties a text message now. At least they'll be aware they need to look at the weather BEFORE departure. We got caught in the Easter day storm a few years ago along the same route. Dave and I kept trying to keep everyone on the road, but the call for alcohol was stronger than the sense of weather danger.

We got nailed with the first round just outside of Wallis on Alt-90. Arrived at a bar there (naturally) soaking wet and badly needing a rest. Of course, that rest stop turned into an all-out bar break for most of them. During that time, the rain stopped and they all thought it was over. Not.

Dave and I watched a huge black roll cloud barrelling in and finally got everyone's attention. Panic all around and scrambling for rain gear. Some of the ladies jumped in my truck knowing they were going to get pounded. I was driving the chase truck that year and thank God for that much.

One rider was older and overly cautious and refused to go over 50 mph the entire trip. He held everyone else up so badly that the storm caught us with 20 miles left to go. Conditions being so bad they could barely manage 10 mph. We're talking horrendous rain, hail, and even funnel clouds.

Even in the truck I could barely see a thing on I-10, and narrowly avoided being flooded out of my subdivision due to the delay of dropping off my other passengers. Riding in rain is dangerous enough, but something like that? No sane person does it if they can possibly avoid it.

Looks like the same situation setting up this year... God help them.