TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 19:19:59 N Lon : 50:39:12 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 975.1mb/ 84.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -55.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, by the way, this does not meet the criteria for rapid deepening (42 mbar in 24 hours OR 2.5 mbar/h for 12 hours).

[hurricanefloyd5]

what's going on here with Big bertha???? Dose this strenghtening change the track to the east more if in fact it is upgraded to a cat.2 by 11am.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, Bertha is a beauty this morning! Maybe not a category 2 at 11am, but if it continues strengthening like this, I'd say Cat 2 at 5pm.

[Thunder44]

Do I smell a special advisory or update coming soon?

[cycloneye]

Do I smell a special advisory or update coming soon?

Maybe not because is in the middle of the ocean without any threat to anyone.

[Thunder44]

Do I smell a special advisory or update coming soon?

Maybe not because is in the middle of nowhere.

I've seen them put out special advisories out for systems further out in the Atlantic.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Do I smell a special advisory or update coming soon?

Unless the tracks changes in some big way or the movement changed in some big way then I doubt it but I could be wrong.

[Mecklenburg]

Do I smell a special advisory or update coming soon?

not really, they would only issue that when a storm is at imminent threat to land right?

[NDG]

Bertha's intensification during the night and this morning goes to tell many of us that were calling for Bertha to get ripped apart by shear once it got to 50W how quickly conditions change, just because there is shear in an area today does not mean that it will be there tomorrow or the day after, shear tendency maps are better to look at.

[Thunder44]

ADT numbers:

2008JUL07 114500 5.1 968.0/ +0.0 / 92.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 2.14 -55.26 EYE 15 IR 19.33 50.65

[Mecklenburg]

the weather.com images on atlantic are kinda outdated

[HURAKAN]

At this pace we will reach 200 pages very shortly!!!

[storms in NC]

Why would they put a special advisories out for? That don't make sence at all.

[Chacor]

We're two hours away from advisory time so I doubt we'll get a special advisory. Maybe if it had reached cat 2 strength we might've gotten a TCU but I don't think we'll see anything in this case.

BTW, here are some 12z intensity models (also posted in the model thread):


(Model names)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bertha's intensification during the night and this morning goes to tell many of us that were calling for Bertha to get ripped apart by shear once it got to 50W how quickly conditions change, just because there is shear in an area today does not mean that it will be there tomorrow or the day after, shear tendency maps are better to look at.

That strong flow that would be shearing Bertha if the system were farther North is instead helping to evacuate the upper levels, and is helping Bertha instead.

[Mecklenburg]

trivia: the last B hurricane was Hurricane Bret of 1999, the last B storm to be retired was Hurricane Bob of 1991

[cycloneye]

At this pace we will reach 200 pages very shortly!!!

The record of many pages is Wilmas thread with 282 pages so still far but if Bertha takes 2 weeks to go,maybe a new record may be broken.

[Chacor]

[Thunder44]

I'm seeing these other ADT numbers, from these text files:

2008JUL07 114500 5.1 968.0/ +0.0 / 92.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 2.14 -55.26 EYE 15 IR 19.33 50.65

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02L-listA.txt

2008JUL07 114500 5.1 968.0/ +0.0 / 92.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 2.14 -55.26 EYE 15 IR 19.33 50.65 COMBO 45.6

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02L-listmw.txt

2008JUL07 114500 5.3 964.0/ +0.0 / 97.2 5.3 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 2.14 -55.26 EYE 15 IR 19.33 50.65 COMBO 32.8

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02L-listmw2.txt

Where are coming they from?