ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ROCK]

A sharp eye will see the present red convection dot is moving steadily along over a center without receding. A sure sign of development.

nice catch Sanibel....I see what you mean....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Javlin]

With 95L to the W 94L cannot go any further S that would be going against the fluid flow;95L moves 94L WNW-NW(path of least resistance).Then you have what would be an ULL or TUTT cutting into Cuba some that shall inhibit 94L some once it gets pass say 75'>78' that will change provided 94L holds then the ULL or TUTT enhances outflow;if 94L holds.Could be interesting a little study of Fluid dynamics from years ago

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Innotech]

This is an insane amount of activity for July. Im seriously concerned about hte rest of the season. And yet so very excited.

[StormTracker]

A sharp eye will see the present red convection dot is moving steadily along over a center without receding. A sure sign of development.

Yeah, what Sanibel Said!!! It does appear to be moving in a more NW direction now!

[srainhoutx]

With 95L to the W 94L cannot go any further S that would be going against the fluid flow;95L moves 94L WNW-NW(path of least resistance).Then you have what would be an ULL or TUTT cutting into Cuba some that shall inhibit 94L some once it gets pass say 75'>78' that will change provided 94L holds then the ULL or TUTT enhances outflow;if 94L holds.Could be interesting a little study of Fluid dynamics from years ago

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Agree

[ROCK]

With 95L to the W 94L cannot go any further S that would be going against the fluid flow;95L moves 94L WNW-NW(path of least resistance).Then you have what would be an ULL or TUTT cutting into Cuba some that shall inhibit 94L some once it gets pass say 75'>78' that will change provided 94L holds then the ULL or TUTT enhances outflow;if 94L holds.Could be interesting a little study of Fluid dynamics from years ago

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Agree

thought you were going to bed.... 0Z GFS into the TX/ MX border.....interesting to see what the GFDL does since it pounded NO the last run. Bet you it splits the difference...

[coreyl]

Some of you'll think it is now moving NW?

[StormTracker]

That's probably why the NHC is not showing a future forecast plot for the moment! They're re-calculating right now as we speak!!!

[ROCK]

Some of you'll think it is now moving NW?

not a due NW but more of a WNW I would say. Definitely pulling off of SA attm....

[srainhoutx]

Everyone else is. Shhh Have to plan my day tomorrow. 00z looks interesting. Some more data from RECON tomorrow morning will tell the tale, so to speak. Goodnight.

[Smurfwicked]

Some of you'll think it is now moving NW?

Still very much more W than NW movement but yes I am pretty certain that its beginning to have more WNW direction.

[Javlin]

With 95L to the W 94L cannot go any further S that would be going against the fluid flow;95L moves 94L WNW-NW(path of least resistance).Then you have what would be an ULL or TUTT cutting into Cuba some that shall inhibit 94L some once it gets pass say 75'>78' that will change provided 94L holds then the ULL or TUTT enhances outflow;if 94L holds.Could be interesting a little study of Fluid dynamics from years ago

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Agree

thought you were going to bed.... 0Z GFS into the TX/ MX border.....interesting to see what the GFDL does since it pounded NO the last run. Bet you it splits the difference...

Don't even make me laugh Rock .Will it's always good to be pegged early then you know that you are out of the crap shoot.

[StormTracker]

Well, goodnight everybody! Happy tracking...i'll be back in about 7 hrs to see what new developments have occured! It's gonna be an exciting rest of the season!!!

[Innotech]

this storm is most definitely organizing itself, slowly but surely. All the convection has pulled together towards the center and it continues to fire further deep and lasting convection. Folks weve got al ive one.

[PTrackerLA]

Don't really know what everyone else is seeing. What I see is a huge dying outflow boundary with storms developing behind it getting sheared off to the south. I could name several instances where this system has looked MUCH more impressive than it does now. Looks like a disorganized sheared mess but it wouldn't even surprise me if it finally develops tomorrow given that I've thought it was already there a few times. The model trends, well, I'll try to ignore those until/if we ever get TC out of this. GOM has been closed since 2005 94L .

[Derek Ortt]

guys...


this thing is running smack into very strong shear. The sytem is becoming even mroe disorganized and environmental conditions likely will NEVER be favorable for this to develop (GFS shear forecasts are usually poor to horrid... remember Bertha expected to encounter 30KT of shear when it encountered 5KT?).

This has about as much chance of developing within the next 48 hours as a bearded lady has of winning Miss America

[Brent]

This has about as much chance of developing within the next 48 hours as a bearded lady has of winning Miss America

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kurtpage]

guys...


this thing is running smack into very strong shear. The sytem is becoming even mroe disorganized and environmental conditions likely will NEVER be favorable for this to develop (GFS shear forecasts are usually poor to horrid... remember Bertha expected to encounter 30KT of shear when it encountered 5KT?).

This has about as much chance of developing within the next 48 hours as a bearded lady has of winning Miss America

haha...that last line made me laugh!

You know that I am going to hold you to this and put it in my sig if this develops before 1:04 am on Sunday morning....

[cheezyWXguy]

guys...


this thing is running smack into very strong shear. The sytem is becoming even mroe disorganized and environmental conditions likely will NEVER be favorable for this to develop (GFS shear forecasts are usually poor to horrid... remember Bertha expected to encounter 30KT of shear when it encountered 5KT?).

This has about as much chance of developing within the next 48 hours as a bearded lady has of winning Miss America

Well, this suggests its about to run into an area of very low shear in the next 48 hours...can u show me this "wall of shear"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrshr.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree derek.

Can you tell me the reason why these invests are getting going, but they don't get to become cyclones. What is the difference between this season and 2005 in these terms. Thank you.