Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

Anyone happen to have a skew-t from the summer of 2011 , during the middle of the 100+ streak? Is there an archive for these somewhere? I'm educating myself on capping inversions, or at least trying to - they are a big part of North Texas weather.

[dhweather]

Potential for cold? Yes. Severe cold? That depends. What's severe? 12Z GFS, for example, forecasts a low of 23F in Dallas on the 17th of the month. That's the coldest over the next two weeks, at least according to the latest GFS run. The GFS is showing some cross-Polar flow and movement of cold air southward out of northern Canada by mid month, but there's a question of just how cold the airmass that comes down will be.

I'm leaning towards cold fronts that bring some sub freezing nights and relatively cold days to the DFW area, but I just don't think it's going to be anything compared to 89 or other years.

My rule #1 in weather is to never trust model forecasts beyond seven days. So we will have to wait until next week to get an idea of where we are headed.

I am in general agreement with you on this. However, I am starting to see enough in the long ranges, not in just one model, that makes me lean more towards the longer, colder outbreak camp after the middle of January and possibly into February. Is some of it wishful thinking? Of course it is. But there are a lot of signals showing that are at a minimum pointing towards what I would call a true polar cold outbreak. I've been through all the analog years mentioned here in Houston and I can tell you it wasn't fun at all, but I am a weather nerd, and I am trying to look ahead in case I need to do some more preparation.
Heavier clouds have now moved into the Houston area so we only got a few hours of peeks at sunshine today which toasted us to a 51f high. I expect the temps to start falling again and the moisture is obviously moving in also. Question is will it moisten up enough to give us any precip of any kind.

I should qualify for everyone here that while I've been on Storm2k for several years, my intense focus has been on the tropics. I moved to Dallas from the Bay St. Louis MS area after Katrina. I've mastered (the best an amatuer can) the tropics, but North Texas weather is a different animal. Texas weather in general is a different animal. We're staying here, so I've got some more educating to do for myself. For example, dry line, capping inversion, these weren't of significant interest on the coast. They are huge now. So I'll probably be asking some more questions from the collective brain trust. That's what makes S2K special - a real sense of community. Well, that and we're all weather geeks.

[Texas Snowman]

This has been posted before but it is an incredibly useful read about the McFarland signature and pattern recognition of a bitter Arctic invasion heading to Texas:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM THROUGH SWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 031810Z - 032315Z

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SRN NM INTO WEST TEXAS. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO
DEVELOP FARTHER SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
SRN NM THROUGH WRN AND SWRN TX. THE PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THE 12Z RAOB FROM
EL PASO INDICATED AN UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB
SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING. AN UPPER
JET STREAK LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE BIG
BEND THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ASCENT
WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...LIKELY AUGMENTING SNOWFALL RATES
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..DIAL.. 01/03/2013

[somethingfunny]

We really need a NEXRAD site over there in the Big Bend. Check out what's emerging from over there though, it looks like the main event is arriving:

[Portastorm]

PWC Cancels Briefing, Defers to NWS

(Austin) -- The Portastorm Weather Center cancelled its late morning briefing, defering forecasts for tonight's expected winter weather event in west and central Texas to the National Weather Service. The only comment the lead meteorologist would make to the press was: "Plenty of excitement for our friends to our west, southwest, and possibly northwest ... but in Austin this will be a few sleet pellets mixed with a few snowflakes and the majority will be light rain. We're more intrigued by next week's possible severe weather episode and the potential for major Arctic outbreaks beyond. We think the NWS has this event well within their sights."

Disgruntled weather watchers however poured out of the PWC briefing room with one weather enthusiast openly complaining: "Lazy bums. They probably hit the Grey Goose early and didn't feel like checking the models." Another enthusiast commented: "The only models those slackers are checking out are the ones in the Victoria's Secret catalogue."

The PWC press director refused any further comment.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm getting loaded in the JerryWorld parking lot. Bring on the Frozen stuff.

Gig'em!

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I don't think the bulk of the main precip shield is supposed to come out until tonight/tomorrow morning with the upper level low

[Portastorm]

I'm getting loaded in the JerryWorld parking lot. Bring on the Frozen stuff.

Gig'em!

You better keep your quarterback away from your tailgate, buddy!

Meanwhile, EWX has expanded its Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and added Burnet, Gillespie, and Llano counties. The afternoon AFD is out from EWX as well. Here it is:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COLD AND WE EXPECT WINTER WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR VAL
VERDE...EDWARDS...REAL...AND KERR COUNTIES AND WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WE ARE EXTENDING IT UP TO GILLESPIE...LLANO...AND BURNET.
EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND
MAYBE SLEET. IT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ADVISORY...MAINLY
NORTH OF HWY 90 FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND WEST OF I35 NORTH
OF SAN ANTONIO...THERE MAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET OR SNOW...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY...WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD TURN THE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. PRECIP WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
AND COOL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BE A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THERE IS
CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Johnny Heisman could shred the OU defense drunk... now can our defense stop OU's offense... that is the question!

I hope you guys see some good snows tonight. We have the Grey Goose flowing down the shot block in PWC's honor.

[CaptinCrunch]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175-040500-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
HENDERSON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-BELL-MCLENNAN-
FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
343 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO AND REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND...TO STEPHENVILLE...TO GATESVILLE...
TO LAMPASAS WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY
AREA BUT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 COULD
SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...SOME ICY SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT RAIN.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER.

[Portastorm]

Johnny Heisman could shred the OU defense drunk... now can our defense stop OU's offense... that is the question!

I hope you guys see some good snows tonight. We have the Grey Goose flowing down the shot block in PWC's honor.

You're a good man! PWC appreciates that. We'll be cheering for those Aggies as well.

Enjoy the experience and the game ... and keep us posted on JerryWorld weather.

[TexasF6]

Wow!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Just in case my tutorial on pics memory epic fails...LOOK!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

[WacoWx]

Without fail, when I leave Dallas for Waco, it snows in Dallas. Right when I get back to Dallas, it snows in Waco. I feel ya, Porta.

[Ntxw]

Without fail, when I leave Dallas for Waco, it snows in Dallas. Right when I get back to Dallas, it snows in Waco. I feel ya, Porta.

What a terrible string of misfortune

[gboudx]

Without fail, when I leave Dallas for Waco, it snows in Dallas. Right when I get back to Dallas, it snows in Waco. I feel ya, Porta.

Can you go back to Waco tonight? This way, the snow will split around Waco, giving ATX and DFW snow.

[bella_may]

We really need a NEXRAD site over there in the Big Bend. Check out what's emerging from over there though, it looks like the main event is arriving:

Is all of that reaching the ground? If so, the moisture seems to be moving a lot faster than expected.

[WacoWx]

Without fail, when I leave Dallas for Waco, it snows in Dallas. Right when I get back to Dallas, it snows in Waco. I feel ya, Porta.

Can you go back to Waco tonight? This way, the snow will split around Waco, giving ATX and DFW snow.

I'm on it

[ndale]

Does anyone know the current track of this system, is it as tracking as anticipated or going further north or south.

[TexasF6]

We may be in for a few suprises...JMO! not official-like...I tease because in the words of Yoda to Luke, "there is aaanother Sky--low forming SW of the primary system?" Am I reaching? Of course, but it looks very interesting...WV loop looks like its digging S, but starting its turn, just my eyes, not official.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html