ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar from 10:02am AST to 6:24pm AST:



Larger: https://imgur.com/bk8qcfA
From: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... A-N0Q-0-12

[Aric Dunn]

[johngaltfla]

Ah electricity, my old friend, I shall miss you again.

FWIW, went to BJ's Wholesale on the way home, pallets of water and batteries being rolled out.

Welcome to another fun Florida Labor Day weekend.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.ibb.co/B3RHRDb/16.gif

look at that presentation and just a few days ago, dissipation was a realistic outcome...we know hurricanes dont like land and this one did a good job avoiding it...remember the one that bounced off the southern coast of jamaica years ago under the influence of a stout ridge, literally the system would get within a few miles of landfall and then go back out and come back in, went on for 12 hours or so..we see systems split the passage and come into the Bahamas..land is like kryptonite to hurricanes

[northjaxpro]

https://i.ibb.co/B3RHRDb/16.gif

Dorian is beginning to get that symmetrical/classical look of an impressive image.on radar and satellite.

[cainjamin]

https://i.ibb.co/B3RHRDb/16.gif

Holy moly that ragged eye became circular over 2 frames

[Rail Dawg]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

[wx98]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

In reading these boards for years and finally joining last year, I have always enjoyed and appreciated your insight Rail Dawg. Nice to hear from you! I agree with you that Cat 5 is definitely likely, I’m satisfied we will see a Cat 4 for sure.

[decgirl66]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

I watched your live feed from Michael! It scared the crap out of me! I am in Brevard County and watching Dorian closely!

[xironman]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Keep in touch. One the with the east coast of FL is there is plenty of parking garages.

[GCANE]

Just about all of Dorian's energy, since the mid Atlantic, has been coming from the feeder band to its east.
Its been constantly advecting high CAPE and high TPW air into the center.
This feeder band may get distrupted soon as Dorian treks north of PR and the feeder band goes over PR.
IMHO coud see a leveling off or slight drop in intensity until the feeder clears PR or another feeder connects to the vort.

[Jr0d]

....

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

I have had a bad feeling about Dorian too. Today's forecast and current trend verifies that this may be bad, like really bad. The east coast of Florida(with the exception of Homestead) has been spared for a very long time for a true monster. I'm afraid that streak is up.

[SunnyThoughts]

Daughter is an RN at one of the major hospitals here in Pensacola. They have 8 big rigs filled with generator fuel headed to them this week. #aheadofthegame

[AdamFirst]

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Gotta drive to Vero tomorrow for work. I'm afraid we're gonna run out of gas here before I get home tomorrow

[SunnyThoughts]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

I watched you last year in PC. Good luck and be safe!

[Aric Dunn]

alright here we go. The football has tipped over and angular momentum has shifted to the NW and will be able to wrap to the south. then its all downhill from there.. another couple hours. hopefully while recon is in there.

next recon set will be a center pass. but pressure is already 997. probably 985 to 990 right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

I will try to come find you this time. I missed you for frances and michael.

[Frank2]

This morning Jim Cantore made an interesting observation worth repeating now - he said Dorian has been favoring the right side of the cone and by my observation it seems to be doing that still, per the SJU radar that shows it on a 340 or 350 heading.

It's good news for Puerto Rico and I hope it will be good news for Florida too. I think too much stock is placed on the "robust ridge" - but many are forgetting the trough moving through the eastern states right now is robust, too, and is forecast to recurve Erin.

We have to remember Erin (and prior TD6) were in the same area for almost the past week - a trough carved in the atmosphere for that long just does not disappear overnight, and it will take time for the ridge to rebuild.

Jim might have really struck on the heart of the matter when it comes to Erin's track.

Some might recall the scene in "Hoosiers" when old Shooter had to fill in for the coach, and Shooter's observation that the other team was "picking [the basketball] low all night" - and that's what lead to their winning the game.

It's the same in a sense with Dorian - once something in motion sets a pattern usually it remains..

[johngaltfla]

alright here we go. The football has tipped over and angular momentum has shifted to the NW and will be able to wrap to the south. then its all downhill from there.. another couple hours. hopefully while recon is in there.

next recon set will be a center pass. but pressure is already 997. probably 985 to 990 right now.

I'll bid we see a 987 tonight. Stabilization and ERC tomorrow, then boom when it gets into the Central Bahamas. Nice job this storm Aric, I've been reading while I've been on the road. This storm has strong potential to be a Cat 4 before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

dang they really missed the center....