2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.

Overnight long range guidance is still meh… interesting the ECMWF seasonal backed off to average. Just to dry and stable right now. It's competing factors Right now La Niña and WAM vs stability plus cooler MDR (relative to the rest).

We will see when it flips.

Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

How do you know the AMO was negative for July?

Note that the rising air will be concentrated over the regions highlighted, while other areas will serve as net sinks, per SST analysis.

Please see jconsor’s explanation(s).

[toad strangler]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.


Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

How do you know the AMO was negative for July?

https://i.ibb.co/qkdm54h/Sinking-1.png

Note that the rising air will be concentrated over the regions highlighted, while other areas will serve as net sinks, per SST analysis.

Please see jconsor’s explanation(s).

This is a 180 from what Ben Noll was showing yesterday IRT rising cells ….hmmm and highlighted by Mark Sudduth in his pod cast yesterday

[NotSparta]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.

Overnight long range guidance is still meh… interesting the ECMWF seasonal backed off to average. Just to dry and stable right now. It's competing factors Right now La Niña and WAM vs stability plus cooler MDR (relative to the rest).

We will see when it flips.

Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

Very nice to hear. Do you know where I could acquire a crystal ball like yours? I think it would help with forecasting

[AlphaToOmega]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.


Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

How do you know the AMO was negative for July?

https://i.ibb.co/qkdm54h/Sinking-1.png

Note that the rising air will be concentrated over the regions highlighted, while other areas will serve as net sinks, per SST analysis.

Please see jconsor’s explanation(s).

Do you have SST maps for July 29 to August 4 of previous years? Could you also address the other points I brought up?

[CyclonicFury]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.


Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

How do you know the AMO was negative for July?

https://i.ibb.co/qkdm54h/Sinking-1.png

Note that the rising air will be concentrated over the regions highlighted, while other areas will serve as net sinks, per SST analysis.

Please see jconsor’s explanation(s).

Above average SST in the far northern Atlantic near Greenland is a typical feature of +AMO.

[Shell Mound]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423382193561210881



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423382567269588994



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1423385802642501641



Maybe the poleward displacement of the Hadley cell(s) will result in more OTS scenarios than one may have expected. This would certainly be welcome.

[SFLcane]

Pretty classic 500mb steering look on the CFS for landfalls through early September.

[Shell Mound]

Pretty classic 500mb steering look on the CFS for landfalls through early September.

https://i.postimg.cc/P5466rmR/0315-DEE7-A31-C-478-D-AC4-A-8-D888565-D023.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Qds4kWW7/493-C2029-5-C0-C-4-EB7-BCDD-0-C10-BF2-BC8-E9.jpg

As mentioned previously, the axis of the ridge is too far north by several degrees. I see lower heights and weaknesses south of 40°N that would entrap systems.

[Category5Kaiju]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.

Overnight long range guidance is still meh… interesting the ECMWF seasonal backed off to average. Just to dry and stable right now. It's competing factors Right now La Niña and WAM vs stability plus cooler MDR (relative to the rest).

We will see when it flips.

Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

Very nice to hear. Do you know where I could acquire a crystal ball like yours? I think it would help with forecasting

I would love to acquire one too so perhaps we could definitively end the season cancel and season optimistic debates amongst the wx folks in the 2022, 2023, and so forth Atlantic hurricane seasons once and for all, even before the season begins!

[hurricane2025]

Joe all about a gom system soon https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 12832?s=10

[AnnularCane]

The very warm subtropics likely mean that ridging, while strong, will be displaced northward during the peak of the season, allowing troughs to form underneath.


Some people thought that the Niña and ASW alone would overcome the -AMM/-AMO and EPAC -VP. So far that is not the case. Wxman57's bearish outlook on the MDR will end up being correct for ASO. This goes to show that much more is needed than La Niña and a strong Africa monsoon for an above-average MDR. The fact is that the tropical Atlantic is cooler than the subtropics, so sinking air alone will be sufficient to reduce the prospects of long-trackers in the MDR. A drier Atlantic also means smaller and generally less destructive storms.

Very nice to hear. Do you know where I could acquire a crystal ball like yours? I think it would help with forecasting

I would love to acquire one too so perhaps we could definitively end the season cancel and season optimistic debates amongst the wx folks in the 2022, 2023, and so forth Atlantic hurricane seasons once and for all, even before the season begins!

But then what would we have to talk about when it's quiet?

[Category5Kaiju]

Very nice to hear. Do you know where I could acquire a crystal ball like yours? I think it would help with forecasting

I would love to acquire one too so perhaps we could definitively end the season cancel and season optimistic debates amongst the wx folks in the 2022, 2023, and so forth Atlantic hurricane seasons once and for all, even before the season begins!

But then what would we have to talk about when it's quiet?

I mean, I guess we could talk about what's going on in the EPAC or WPAC instead? But then again, I do understand that many of us are on the "A-Team" (as I like to call it sometimes), with "A" standing for Atlantic, and when the Atlantic gets quiet the A-Teamers get very bored despite activity occurring in other parts of the world.

I'm personally an A-Teamer, so I'm looking forward to tracking August storms here...

[AlphaToOmega]

Weather is so chaotic that such a crystal ball would be impossible. Maybe a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil causes a tornado in Kansas. I am not saying it does, but it is a possibility. I have seen people look at storms from CFS forecasts thousands of hours out, so maybe there is a crystal ball.

On a serious note, what I am seeing is a pattern nearly identical to the ones in 2020 and 2010.

[Shell Mound]

The black lines highlight probable TC tracks in the event that the CFSv2 were correct. The ridge appears to be too far to the north to facilitate landfalls.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Category5Kaiju]

Let’s all keep in mind that August 20 is still 2 weeks away, and we are likely going to see the transition occur sooner rather than later. I mean, the bell is rung on August 20 and not August 6 for a reason

[psyclone]

Let’s all keep in mind that August 20 is still 2 weeks away, and we are likely going to see the transition occur sooner rather than later. I mean, the bell is rung on August 20 and not August 6 for a reason

We're at a critical point where we have some folks trying to say not much will happen because not much is happening now. Betting against climo will blow up in your face about 90% of the time. It's a very peaky basin. These posts will age poorly as they almost always do but they really represent part of the flow of the season. Remember the cliff jumping in August of 17 before Irma? Most of us do. I have long referred to the Atlantic hurricane climo as comparable to going broke....slowly at first then all at once. On 8-6 we're still going slowly...but not for long..

[captainbarbossa19]

Let’s all keep in mind that August 20 is still 2 weeks away, and we are likely going to see the transition occur sooner rather than later. I mean, the bell is rung on August 20 and not August 6 for a reason

We're at a critical point where we have some folks trying to say not much will happen because not much is happening now. Betting against climo will blow up in your face about 90% of the time. It's a very peaky basin. These posts will age poorly as they almost always do but they really represent part of the flow of the season. Remember the cliff jumping in August of 17 before Irma? Most of us do. I have long referred to the Atlantic hurricane climo as comparable to going broke....slowly at first then all at once. On 8-6 we're still going slowly...but not for long..

Right. I remember when Harvey opened back into a wave in the Caribbean in mid-August, many people were saying "what a joke this season is." Within two weeks, Harvey had redeveloped into a major hurricane and Irma was on its way to becoming a Category 5 hurricane.

[aspen]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

[captainbarbossa19]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

2004 did not even have a TS until almost August. I think it's all a matter of time before the Atlantic becomes busy. If this year is like 2017, we could have simultaneous EPAC and Atlantic storms, especially if the EPAC storms continue to be weak.