ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2261 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:38 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
It is just the beginning of it. pressure will fall.

Radar confirms a tiny eye. it could of course collapse if an outer eyewall starts to develop as well.. but right now there is one continuous spiral band into the tiny eye.

https://i.ibb.co/48Rg7Gz/eye2.png

Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.


Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

Looks like you and Aric may end up right.

 https://twitter.com/derrickherndon2/status/1574451546217222158





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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2262 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:38 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/EzlEEYx.gif

Close brush for Isla of Youth...

I know its IR eye candy but that doesn't look to have much of a W component at this time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2263 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:39 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:How does the topography of CA impact the inflow of storms in close proximity to the coast? Is it possible Ian was impacted by this earlier in its life and is now benefiting from more separation from the coastline?


Central America doesn’t have any impacts on storms in this area. Generally for any kind of disruption, a storm has to plow right into CA since the topography is fairly flat near the coast. None of the negative impacts on Ian are due to land interaction. I hoping the western Cuba mountains might do more damage than expected but we’ll see.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2264 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:40 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
GCANE wrote:IMHO, doesn't look like an outer eyewall.
In fact a high rain-rate tower is firing now at the CoC.


You're back! :D


Thanks.
Just came back from a fishing trip in Michigan.
Landed a 35 lb buck king salmon. What a fight.
Kept the cigar in my mouth the whole time.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2265 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:41 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:Pretty fast rotation with that tower

Good to have you back GCANE.


Much thanks AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2266 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:47 pm

Noticed that NOAA9 has taken off, is it the Upper Level Dropsonde plane?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2267 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:50 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2268 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:51 pm

GCANE wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
GCANE wrote:IMHO, doesn't look like an outer eyewall.
In fact a high rain-rate tower is firing now at the CoC.


You're back! :D


Thanks.
Just came back from a fishing trip in Michigan.
Landed a 35 lb buck king salmon. What a fight.
Kept the cigar in my mouth the whole time.


Holy Smokes Batman!!!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2269 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:51 pm

Eye diamter from last VDM. 11nm..

nearing that pinhole size. should contract more as this process continues.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2270 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 pm

Looks like that tower lasted about 45 minutes and rotated 270 degrees around the core.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2271 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Noticed that NOAA9 has taken off, is it the Upper Level Dropsonde plane?

Yep NOAA9 is always the upper level missions
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2272 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Eye diamter from last VDM. 11nm..

nearing that pinhole size. should contract more as this process continues.


Pressure is also really decreasing at 978 mb.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2273 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:53 pm

skyline385 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:Definitely a double eyewall. You can even see the double wind maxima on the pass through the NW quadrant. This won’t be able to intensify much until that inner eyewall is gone.


Inner eyewall should take over. Outer eyewall should just meld/contract as part of it as we're seeing on radar.

Looks like you and Aric may end up right.

https://twitter.com/derrickherndon2/status/1574451546217222158?s=46&t=pD55PwEAF6E2w2tRQmGFcQ


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That radar screenshot is three hours old. Now it looks like a single, albeit rather messy, normal-sized eyewall.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2274 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:55 pm

we have a warming spot in the middle of that last tower. tiny eye soon to appear.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2275 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2276 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:57 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


NNW has begun...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2277 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:57 pm

Numerous thundershowers developing and quickly moving here in SE FL. Precipitable water values also 2.3 inches and climbing. Dark clouds overhead and a little breeze.

Hurricane Ian is starting to have an effect here despite it being some 350 miles or so from here
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2278 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:59 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


Where did the 976 mb come from? I thought the last pass was 978?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2279 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:00 pm

Blown Away wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


NNW has begun...


It's weaker than they expected.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2280 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:00 pm

24hr microwave imagery showing the development of Ian’s core

Image
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